玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/103.37-7.3713.8836.520.1310.69N/A-
2024/93.64-0.8810.733.1220.8111.511.6-
2024/83.67-12.3137.5929.4822.1912.251.5-
2024/74.19-4.3614.5925.8120.2912.671.45-
2024/64.387.156.2321.6321.5412.411.38主係銷售大體系客戶營收增加
2024/54.093.9223.3417.2615.112.91.33-
2024/43.94-19.183.3613.1712.8310.031.71-
2024/34.87300.957.499.2517.669.251.832月出貨遞延及銷售大型機台
2024/21.22-61.58-55.064.38-8.099.061.87今年2月適逢農曆春節假期,去年同期基期較高所致
2024/13.16-32.4853.593.1653.5911.381.49去年同期適逢農曆春節假期,基期較低所致
2023/124.6932.6710.0238.61-16.1611.181.42-
2023/113.5319.21-13.1133.91-18.849.781.63-
2023/102.96-9.96-15.1730.38-19.458.921.78-
2023/93.2923.19-7.0327.42-19.889.621.65-
2023/82.67-26.97-26.9924.13-21.379.131.74-
2023/73.6630.3712.9821.46-20.69.781.63-
2023/62.81-15.44-35.1517.8-25.199.931.5-
2023/53.32-12.91-23.3514.99-22.9710.221.46-
2023/43.8123.13-16.8611.67-22.889.611.56-
2023/33.0914.38-29.657.86-25.667.862.01-
2023/22.731.314.894.77-22.969.021.75-
2023/12.06-51.63-42.882.06-42.8810.381.52-
2022/124.264.76-4.5846.056.3911.821.21-
2022/114.0616.3844.2941.797.6311.11.28-
2022/103.49-1.31-6.3537.724.7510.691.33-
2022/93.54-3.2617.0734.236.0610.431.51-
2022/83.6613.01-21.7930.694.911.221.4-
2022/73.24-25.172.627.0310.0211.891.33-
2022/64.33-0.051.0823.7911.0713.241.18-
2022/54.33-5.5316.019.4613.5813.311.17-
2022/44.584.1822.715.1312.9311.561.35-
2022/34.470.5816.8810.579.4510.581.53-
2022/22.58-28.510.286.194.9410.651.52-
2022/13.61-19.21.393.611.3910.891.48-
2021/124.4658.4424.9143.2941.3411.011.39-
2021/112.82-24.473.4438.8243.449.571.6-
2021/103.7323.3715.2336.0147.8511.431.34-
2021/93.02-35.38-12.7132.2752.2810.861.37大陸地區銷售增加
2021/84.6848.2742.4129.2564.9812.111.23大陸地區銷售增加
2021/73.15-26.288.4524.5769.9511.171.33大陸地區銷售增加
2021/64.2814.6975.4521.4285.5411.751.12大陸地區銷售增加
2021/53.73-0.07103.6117.1388.411.231.17大陸地區營收增加
2021/43.73-0.7594.2613.484.739.831.33大陸地區營收增加
2021/33.7660.9453.099.6681.199.661.38台灣及大陸地區營收增加
2021/22.34-34.2689.445.9105.349.471.41台灣及大陸地區射出機營收增加
2021/13.56-0.47117.113.56117.119.851.35大陸地區射出機銷售成長
2020/123.5731.2110.7630.62-7.79.531.32-
2020/112.72-15.86-17.1327.07-9.649.421.34-
2020/103.24-6.548.7424.35-8.619.981.26-
2020/93.465.4234.6921.19-10.459.661.27-
2020/83.2812.9233.4817.73-15.958.631.42-
2020/72.9119.2520.0714.45-22.427.181.7-
2020/62.4433.1-28.1311.54-28.816.191.95-
2020/51.83-4.66-33.399.09-29.036.211.94-
2020/41.92-21.78-4.717.25-27.915.612.15-
2020/32.4699.14-18.015.33-33.725.332.23-
2020/21.23-24.65-40.072.87-43.156.11.95-
2020/11.64-49.22-45.231.64-45.238.151.46-
2019/123.23-1.83-2.5433.18-3.780.0N/A-
2019/113.2910.4126.9929.96-3.890.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.162023/12.062022/13.612021/13.562020/11.64
2024/21.222023/22.72022/22.582021/22.342020/21.23
2024/34.872023/33.092022/34.42021/33.762020/32.46
2024/43.942023/43.812022/44.582021/43.732020/41.92
2024/54.092023/53.322022/54.332021/53.732020/51.83
2024/64.382023/62.812022/64.332021/64.282020/62.44
2024/74.192023/73.662022/73.242021/73.152020/72.91
2024/83.672023/82.672022/83.662021/84.682020/83.28
2024/93.642023/93.292022/93.542021/93.022020/93.46
2024/103.372023/102.962022/103.492021/103.732020/103.24
N/AN/A2023/113.532022/114.062021/112.822020/112.72
N/AN/A2023/124.692022/124.262021/124.462020/123.57
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 13.7%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.15-3.59-1.83
24Q2 (19)2.2325.28-11.86
24Q1 (18)1.78-7.29-46.06
23Q4 (17)1.92-12.331.05
23Q3 (16)2.19-13.44-41.44
23Q2 (15)2.53-23.33-19.43
23Q1 (14)3.373.68-15.38
22Q4 (13)1.9-49.2-43.11
22Q3 (12)3.7419.1117.98
22Q2 (11)3.14-19.49-1.88
22Q1 (10)3.916.7732.65
21Q4 (9)3.345.3627.48
21Q3 (8)3.17-0.9442.79
21Q2 (7)3.28.8460.0
21Q1 (6)2.9412.21107.04
20Q4 (5)2.6218.02122.03
20Q3 (4)2.2211.00.0
20Q2 (3)2.040.850.0
20Q1 (2)1.4220.340.0
19Q4 (1)1.180.00.0

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