玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.2-5.28-40.963.1296.80.63N/A本月訂單需求增加
2024/90.221.623.032.92135.210.73.05本月訂單需求增加
2024/80.21-21.01107.532.7162.030.752.82本月訂單需求增加
2024/70.27-0.7390.942.49168.030.852.48本月訂單需求增加
2024/60.27-14.1438.042.22181.791.022.22本月訂單需求增加
2024/50.32-27.53132.121.95229.371.191.91本月訂單需求增加
2024/40.43-0.28322.941.63258.31.221.85本月訂單需求增加
2024/30.4425.29406.61.2239.51.22.01本月訂單需求增加
2024/20.35-16.39126.130.76185.731.172.06本月訂單需求增加
2024/10.422.48266.470.42266.471.211.99本月訂單需求增加
2023/120.415.19185.742.38-45.151.142.12本月訂單需求增加
2023/110.3911.65113.421.97-52.980.942.56本年訂單需求減少
2023/100.3565.2914.331.59-60.480.663.67訂單需求減少
2023/90.21104.68-44.031.24-66.580.455.35訂單需求減少
2023/80.1-27.32-69.941.03-69.10.445.52訂單需求減少
2023/70.14-28.23-56.20.93-69.010.475.12訂單需求減少
2023/60.244.36-49.30.79-70.540.435.52訂單需求減少
2023/50.1432.04-72.550.59-74.130.327.39訂單需求減少
2023/40.119.43-81.310.46-74.570.347.0訂單需求減少
2023/30.09-44.06-85.80.35-71.590.356.76訂單需求減少
2023/20.1535.48-49.110.27-58.080.415.84訂單需求減少
2023/10.11-20.08-66.160.11-66.160.445.47訂單需求減少
2022/120.14-21.42-53.284.34-4.440.633.69訂單需求減少
2022/110.18-40.18-43.584.19-0.930.862.7-
2022/100.3-19.09-22.134.012.561.022.27-
2022/90.379.93-7.483.715.281.032.31-
2022/80.345.87-6.623.346.931.052.28-
2022/70.32-16.91-0.953.08.721.21.99-
2022/60.39-21.8323.12.6810.011.431.61-
2022/50.49-10.12-3.12.298.071.651.4-
2022/40.55-9.258.911.7911.631.461.58-
2022/30.61100.4931.681.2412.871.241.69-
2022/20.3-9.914.950.64-0.60.942.23-
2022/10.3410.34-5.140.34-5.140.962.19-
2021/120.3-5.1214.474.5433.321.011.69-
2021/110.32-17.4456.874.2334.921.111.54本月增減百分比達50%以上,主係客戶需求增加所致。
2021/100.39-3.8662.813.9133.391.161.48本月增減百分比達50%以上,主係客戶需求增加所致。
2021/90.410.9611.583.5230.781.091.2-
2021/80.3612.29-2.533.1233.761.01.31-
2021/70.323.26-29.062.7640.691.151.14-
2021/60.31-38.47-18.212.4361.911.330.77本年累計增減百分比達50%以上,主係客戶需求增加所致。
2021/50.511.0338.532.1289.431.480.69客戶需求增加
2021/40.519.71180.21.61114.441.250.81客戶需求增加
2021/30.4659.876.071.193.621.10.72客戶需求增加
2021/20.29-18.57152.170.64108.530.910.87客戶需求增加
2021/10.3533.1682.780.3582.780.820.96客戶需求增加
2020/120.2730.01-27.273.455.970.710.93客戶需求增加
2020/110.2-14.31-46.243.1472.720.80.82客戶需求增加
2020/100.24-34.118.772.93104.210.970.68客戶需求增加
2020/90.36-3.08374.542.69121.41.190.54客戶需求增加
2020/80.37-18.2734.322.33104.471.210.53客戶需求增加
2020/70.4619.0669.191.96127.091.210.53客戶需求增加
2020/60.384.2259.61.5153.490.930.77客戶需求增加
2020/50.37104.35239.491.12130.160.810.89客戶需求增加
2020/40.18-31.05131.50.7598.710.561.29客戶需求增加
2020/30.26128.86220.910.5790.190.570.0客戶需求增加
2020/20.11-40.9816.70.3141.30.670.0-
2020/10.19-47.0161.370.1961.370.940.0客戶需求增加
2019/120.37-3.891034.072.1826.430.0N/A客戶需求增加
2019/110.3873.37829.11.827.260.0N/A客戶需求增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.422023/10.112022/10.342021/10.352020/10.19
2024/20.352023/20.152022/20.32021/20.292020/20.11
2024/30.442023/30.092022/30.612021/30.462020/30.26
2024/40.432023/40.12022/40.552021/40.512020/40.18
2024/50.322023/50.142022/50.492021/50.512020/50.37
2024/60.272023/60.22022/60.392021/60.312020/60.38
2024/70.272023/70.142022/70.322021/70.322020/70.46
2024/80.212023/80.12022/80.342021/80.362020/80.37
2024/90.222023/90.212022/90.372021/90.42020/90.36
2024/100.22023/100.352022/100.32021/100.392020/100.24
N/AN/A2023/110.392022/110.182021/110.322020/110.2
N/AN/A2023/120.412022/120.142021/120.32020/120.27
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.59%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.07-58.82-41.67
24Q2 (19)0.17-56.41-19.05
24Q1 (18)0.3977.27225.0
23Q4 (17)0.2283.33120.0
23Q3 (16)0.12-42.86-36.84
23Q2 (15)0.2175.0-61.11
23Q1 (14)0.1220.0-72.09
22Q4 (13)0.1-47.37-67.74
22Q3 (12)0.19-64.81-54.76
22Q2 (11)0.5425.5828.57
22Q1 (10)0.4338.71-2.27
21Q4 (9)0.31-26.19121.43
21Q3 (8)0.420.0320.0
21Q2 (7)0.42-4.5535.48
21Q1 (6)0.44214.290
20Q4 (5)0.1440.00
20Q3 (4)0.1-67.740.0
20Q2 (3)0.3100.0

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