玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.4-10.611.974.72-7.711.14N/A-
2024/100.4446.68-7.014.32-9.171.18N/A-
2024/90.3-30.23-12.223.88-9.411.211.29-
2024/80.43-8.03-12.093.58-9.171.411.1-
2024/70.47-6.48-32.933.14-8.751.41.1-
2024/60.517.340.192.67-2.561.411.04-
2024/50.43-10.01-37.072.17-3.181.391.05-
2024/40.48-1.52-19.271.7411.621.341.09-
2024/30.4828.394.161.2630.451.261.3-
2024/20.38-6.510.470.7854.661.091.51比較去年2月主要客戶有增加出貨約400萬
2024/10.430.57147.040.4147.041.071.54(1)113年1月工作日比去年較多; (2)OBM有新品上市及ODM有銷售出貨
2023/120.31-12.67-12.885.42-17.081.141.54-
2023/110.35-25.77-10.585.11-17.321.171.49-
2023/100.4838.46-7.514.76-17.781.311.33-
2023/90.34-30.13-15.134.28-18.781.541.18-
2023/80.49-29.83-24.743.94-19.081.71.07-
2023/70.739.716.493.45-18.211.890.96-
2023/60.5-26.3-27.552.74-22.791.770.86-
2023/50.6815.443.522.24-21.631.740.88-
2023/40.5927.07-16.081.56-29.161.41.1-
2023/30.4636.17-15.010.97-35.30.971.57-
2023/20.34109.06-31.110.5-46.970.861.77-
2023/10.16-53.95-64.20.16-64.20.911.66因IC缺料致出貨較少,且因本月工作日較少,故營業額較去年同期減少。
2022/120.35-10.36-18.396.5418.731.271.12-
2022/110.4-23.22-15.316.1821.911.321.08-
2022/100.5227.06-34.025.7925.681.580.9-
2022/90.41-38.05-18.165.2737.871.720.86-
2022/80.65-0.787.394.8746.212.010.74因去年IC缺料致出貨少,今年可出貨較多,另因某專案進入量產出貨,故營業額較去年8月增加。
2022/70.66-4.9450.594.2141.382.010.74因去年IC缺料致出貨少,今年可出貨較多,另因某專案進入量產出貨,故營業額較去年7月增加。
2022/60.695.326.523.5539.82.060.68-
2022/50.66-6.4160.422.8643.451.910.73本月增百分比超過50%,主要係因ODM客戶去年試產,今年開始量產,以及原物料價格上漲,銷貨價格相對調整。
2022/40.728.6949.922.239.051.750.8-
2022/30.5510.3833.531.534.471.51.03-
2022/20.58.6338.650.9535.011.391.11-
2022/10.464.9731.270.4631.271.361.13-
2021/120.43-6.9712.415.5133.91.680.86-
2021/110.47-40.1821.025.0736.131.740.83-
2021/100.7857.59142.64.6137.881.630.89因7-8月普遍性缺料問題致出貨減少,客戶累積訂單儘量10月出貨,另因缺料致售價也提高,所以營收成長。
2021/90.541.8429.883.8326.711.281.03-
2021/80.35-20.2-23.033.3326.251.340.99-
2021/70.44-20.14-3.912.9836.51.40.95-
2021/60.5533.5253.462.5447.151.430.762020年度因受新冠肺炎影響,國外交易活動多數停止,故需求下降,導致訂單減少。
2021/50.41-12.5468.691.9945.511.290.852020年度因受新冠肺炎疫情影響,國外交易活動多數停止,故需求下降,導致訂單減少。
2021/40.4714.62244.471.5840.511.240.882020年度因受新冠肺炎疫情影響,國外交易活動多數停止,故需求下降,導致訂單減少。
2021/30.4114.6119.311.1112.451.111.05-
2021/20.362.8410.180.78.821.091.07-
2021/10.35-10.117.460.357.461.121.04-
2020/120.390.146.174.11-29.241.091.08-
2020/110.3919.943.663.73-31.61.091.08-
2020/100.32-15.62-2.993.34-35.511.161.02-
2020/90.38-15.94-19.873.02-37.731.290.98-
2020/80.45-0.38-7.022.64-39.681.271.0-
2020/70.4627.541.642.18-43.781.061.2-
2020/60.3646.77-20.631.73-49.710.742.14-
2020/50.2478.58-60.251.37-54.090.722.19受新冠肺炎疫情劇烈影響,主要市場歐美多國仍處於封城狀態,經濟活動完全停擺,嚴重影響旗下雙業務。
2020/40.14-60.29-82.171.13-52.50.81.97受新冠肺炎疫情劇烈影響,主要市場歐美多國仍處於封城狀態,經濟活動完全停擺,嚴重影響旗下雙業務。
2020/30.345.84-37.30.99-38.40.991.4-
2020/20.320.3-31.130.65-38.961.011.37-
2020/10.32-11.18-45.210.32-45.210.0N/A-
2019/120.3635.5-30.445.8114.460.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.42023/10.162022/10.462021/10.352020/10.32
2024/20.382023/20.342022/20.52021/20.362020/20.32
2024/30.482023/30.462022/30.552021/30.412020/30.34
2024/40.482023/40.592022/40.72021/40.472020/40.14
2024/50.432023/50.682022/50.662021/50.412020/50.24
2024/60.52023/60.52022/60.692021/60.552020/60.36
2024/70.472023/70.72022/70.662021/70.442020/70.46
2024/80.432023/80.492022/80.652021/80.352020/80.45
2024/90.32023/90.342022/90.412021/90.52020/90.38
2024/100.442023/100.482022/100.522021/100.782020/100.32
2024/110.42023/110.352022/110.42021/110.472020/110.39
N/AN/A2023/120.312022/120.352021/120.432020/120.39
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 8.52%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.311.11500.0
24Q2 (19)0.27200.0575.0
24Q1 (18)0.09800.0-30.77
23Q4 (17)0.01-80.0-92.31
23Q3 (16)0.0525.0-70.59
23Q2 (15)0.04-69.23-80.95
23Q1 (14)0.130.0-31.58
22Q4 (13)0.13-23.53-7.14
22Q3 (12)0.17-19.0541.67
22Q2 (11)0.2110.53425.0
22Q1 (10)0.1935.71216.67
21Q4 (9)0.1416.67600.0
21Q3 (8)0.12200.01100.0
21Q2 (7)0.04-33.33-55.56
21Q1 (6)0.06200.0-60.0
20Q4 (5)0.02100.00.0
20Q3 (4)0.01-88.890.0
20Q2 (3)0.09-40.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.15650.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.020.00.0

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