玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.974.4542.5743.25-11.2314.77N/A-
2024/94.76-5.34-12.0238.27-15.3815.011.04-
2024/85.03-3.6716.933.51-15.8314.261.09-
2024/75.2230.3621.7828.48-19.813.761.13-
2024/64.01-11.56-15.8623.26-25.5111.611.39-
2024/54.5347.3-18.4119.25-27.2511.721.38-
2024/43.08-25.34-28.0614.72-29.5910.221.58-
2024/34.1235.99-29.2211.65-29.9911.651.32-
2024/23.03-32.68-43.597.53-30.412.151.27-
2024/14.5-2.55-17.44.5-17.413.441.15-
2023/124.626.9-29.3157.66-27.1712.431.35-
2023/114.3223.83-43.3353.04-26.9713.221.27-
2023/103.49-35.54-51.5848.72-25.0613.21.27本月合併營收較去年同期減少約51.58%,主係客戶仍在去化庫存,延後下單。
2023/95.4125.77-28.7145.23-21.7514.01.37-
2023/84.30.34-34.039.82-20.713.351.44-
2023/74.29-9.93-34.535.51-18.7214.61.31-
2023/64.76-14.24-34.5831.23-15.9314.591.4-
2023/55.5529.87-7.2626.47-11.3915.651.31-
2023/44.28-26.54-35.5120.91-12.4315.471.32-
2023/35.828.38-21.5416.64-3.5616.641.35-
2023/25.37-1.4221.6110.8210.017.351.3-
2023/15.45-16.610.545.450.5419.61.15-
2022/126.53-14.29-13.4579.1716.7521.361.13-
2022/117.625.813.0272.6320.5322.421.08-
2022/107.2-5.118.2665.0122.9921.321.13-
2022/97.5916.4411.3857.8123.620.661.07-
2022/86.52-0.415.2850.2125.6920.341.08-
2022/76.55-10.0426.4243.6929.4319.811.11-
2022/67.2821.5617.6137.1529.9819.891.5-
2022/55.99-9.6929.8829.8733.420.041.49-
2022/46.63-10.6449.0223.8834.3118.461.62-
2022/37.4268.0252.3517.2529.417.251.72差異原因:主係受疫情及缺料影響。
2022/24.42-18.519.69.8316.1917.381.7-
2022/15.42-28.2213.555.4213.5520.371.45-
2021/127.552.0111.7967.811.221.041.32-
2021/117.421.475.1660.260.0220.311.37-
2021/106.09-10.6232.8152.86-0.6519.11.46-
2021/96.8210.0722.7346.77-3.8118.191.38-
2021/86.1919.5718.3939.95-7.2417.561.43-
2021/75.18-16.3-11.4333.76-10.7815.981.57-
2021/66.1934.242.328.58-10.6615.251.39-
2021/54.613.61-13.8922.39-13.6913.931.53-
2021/44.45-8.64-14.817.78-13.6313.011.63-
2021/34.8731.91-5.7213.33-13.2313.331.18-
2021/23.69-22.63-21.168.46-17.0415.211.03-
2021/14.77-29.33-13.544.77-13.5418.560.85-
2020/126.75-4.04-5.2867.0-7.1218.380.8-
2020/117.0453.417.5560.24-7.3217.180.86-
2020/104.59-17.41-37.0853.21-8.9815.370.96-
2020/95.556.180.1248.62-4.9816.631.02-
2020/85.23-10.55-7.8743.07-5.617.130.99-
2020/75.85-3.320.337.84-5.2817.250.99-
2020/66.0512.980.9231.99-6.1816.621.12-
2020/55.352.52-21.7125.94-7.715.741.18-
2020/45.221.09-6.8720.59-3.1915.071.24-
2020/35.1710.3-16.8815.37-1.8815.371.19-
2020/24.68-15.1431.7410.27.9817.331.05-
2020/15.52-22.58-6.345.52-6.3419.190.95-
2019/127.138.961.6272.138.670.0N/A-
2019/116.54-10.26-2.7465.019.50.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.52023/15.452022/15.422021/14.772020/15.52
2024/23.032023/25.372022/24.422021/23.692020/24.68
2024/34.122023/35.822022/37.422021/34.872020/35.17
2024/43.082023/44.282022/46.632021/44.452020/45.22
2024/54.532023/55.552022/55.992021/54.612020/55.35
2024/64.012023/64.762022/67.282021/66.192020/66.05
2024/75.222023/74.292022/76.552021/75.182020/75.85
2024/85.032023/84.32022/86.522021/86.192020/85.23
2024/94.762023/95.412022/97.592021/96.822020/95.55
2024/104.972023/103.492022/107.22021/106.092020/104.59
N/AN/A2023/114.322022/117.622021/117.42020/117.04
N/AN/A2023/124.622022/126.532021/127.552020/126.75
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 10.27%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.45-11.0412.4
24Q2 (19)1.6311.6430.4
24Q1 (18)1.46-4.58-10.43
23Q4 (17)1.5318.6-15.0
23Q3 (16)1.293.2-26.7
23Q2 (15)1.25-23.31-33.16
23Q1 (14)1.63-9.44-14.66
22Q4 (13)1.82.2774.76
22Q3 (12)1.76-5.8820.55
22Q2 (11)1.87-2.098.09
22Q1 (10)1.9185.4445.8
21Q4 (9)1.03-29.4515.73
21Q3 (8)1.46-15.6150.52
21Q2 (7)1.7332.06110.98
21Q1 (6)1.3147.1947.19
20Q4 (5)0.89-8.25-8.25
20Q3 (4)0.9718.290.0
20Q2 (3)0.82-7.870.0
20Q1 (2)0.89-8.250.0
19Q4 (1)0.970.00.0

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