玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.968.413.1221.61-1.438.32N/A-
2024/92.733.86-5.2318.64-2.117.30.16-
2024/82.6335.469.1915.91-1.566.150.2-
2024/71.9422.63-22.8913.28-3.445.460.22-
2024/61.58-18.27-31.3211.340.915.320.23-
2024/51.947.54-4.59.769.225.750.21-
2024/41.8-10.466.07.8213.255.460.22-
2024/32.0122.25-2.446.0215.626.020.21-
2024/21.65-30.423.554.0127.466.720.19-
2024/12.36-12.6451.862.3651.869.050.14接單情況樂觀。
2023/122.71-31.8841.4228.668.319.550.13各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/113.9738.4198.3125.8971.739.730.13各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/102.87-0.3749.7221.9267.658.160.16各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/92.8819.6835.5719.0570.747.810.18各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/82.41-4.3543.5816.1779.017.230.19各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/72.529.2267.0313.7687.096.850.2各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/62.313.6399.0411.2492.276.030.18各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/52.0319.38149.98.9490.65.790.19各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/41.7-17.59126.626.9178.185.350.21各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/32.0629.7790.965.2166.565.210.17各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/21.592.0276.013.1553.695.060.18各國陸續解封,觀光產業復甦,奢侈品客戶展店規劃積極
2023/11.56-18.6536.091.5636.095.480.16-
2022/121.91-4.4734.5816.9919.495.840.16-
2022/112.04.549.7315.0817.816.050.16-
2022/101.92-9.78-4.9213.0714.095.720.17-
2022/92.1326.7536.7611.1618.155.310.16-
2022/81.6811.26112.59.0314.484.340.2去年同期因疫情造成營收下降,致使基期太低所致
2022/71.5130.1635.457.353.593.480.25-
2022/61.1642.6730.665.85-2.332.720.28-
2022/50.818.26-36.484.69-8.062.640.29-
2022/40.75-30.56-35.263.881.432.730.28-
2022/31.0819.61-12.323.1317.393.130.26-
2022/20.9-21.1281.572.0542.953.470.23去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2022/11.14-19.5422.411.1422.413.910.2-
2021/121.426.26141.3514.2282.984.780.15去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/111.34-33.6442.8412.878.194.910.15去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/102.0229.77156.4511.4683.54.360.17去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/91.5596.9576.529.4472.983.460.24去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/80.79-29.0740.07.8972.32.790.3去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/71.1125.55104.077.176.843.280.25去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/60.89-30.6513.325.9972.563.320.23去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/51.2810.34224.845.189.83.670.21去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/41.16-5.94216.573.8266.632.890.27去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/31.23147.7270.792.6638.172.660.29去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2021/20.5-46.82-19.341.4318.682.020.38-
2021/10.9358.6158.40.9358.42.460.31去年同期因疫情造成營收銳減、使得基期太低所致
2020/120.59-37.1-65.757.77-53.092.310.35受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/110.9419.12-52.947.18-51.622.60.31受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/100.79-10.67-57.326.24-51.412.230.37受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/90.8856.2-58.235.46-50.431.990.49受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/80.563.37-69.634.58-48.581.890.52受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/70.55-30.27-68.944.01-43.031.720.57受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/60.7898.78-44.073.47-34.431.540.68受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/50.397.53-56.392.69-30.971.480.71受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/40.37-49.25-57.362.29-23.31.70.62受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/30.7216.98-19.951.93-9.61.930.44-
2020/20.624.4316.781.21-2.022.930.29-
2020/10.59-65.71-16.140.59-16.144.30.2-
2019/121.72-13.56-1.8116.579.770.0N/A-
2019/111.998.05-8.6214.8511.30.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.362023/11.562022/11.142021/10.932020/10.59
2024/21.652023/21.592022/20.92021/20.52020/20.62
2024/32.012023/32.062022/31.082021/31.232020/30.72
2024/41.82023/41.72022/40.752021/41.162020/40.37
2024/51.942023/52.032022/50.812021/51.282020/50.39
2024/61.582023/62.32022/61.162021/60.892020/60.78
2024/71.942023/72.522022/71.512021/71.112020/70.55
2024/82.632023/82.412022/81.682021/80.792020/80.56
2024/92.732023/92.882022/92.132021/91.552020/90.88
2024/102.962023/102.872022/101.922021/102.022020/100.79
N/AN/A2023/113.972022/112.02021/111.342020/110.94
N/AN/A2023/122.712022/121.912021/121.422020/120.59
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 55.93%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.81-21.51-43.0
24Q2 (19)3.5895.63-20.44
24Q1 (18)1.83-10.73-48.6
23Q4 (17)2.05-58.42-55.82
23Q3 (16)4.939.5613.86
23Q2 (15)4.526.452.03
23Q1 (14)3.56-23.2861.09
22Q4 (13)4.647.16127.45
22Q3 (12)4.3346.28122.05
22Q2 (11)2.9633.9423.33
22Q1 (10)2.218.33-24.05
21Q4 (9)2.044.62-10.53
21Q3 (8)1.95-18.7517.47
21Q2 (7)2.4-17.5371.43
21Q1 (6)2.9127.6397.96
20Q4 (5)2.2837.35147.83
20Q3 (4)1.6618.570.0
20Q2 (3)1.4-4.760.0
20Q1 (2)1.4759.780.0
19Q4 (1)0.920.00.0

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