玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/103.356.953.4939.9410.6110.28N/A-
2024/93.13-17.516.4236.5911.3112.580.43-
2024/83.8-32.7620.4833.4510.8514.290.38-
2024/75.6516.6227.8829.669.7315.290.35-
2024/64.840.7424.9624.016.1813.980.5-
2024/54.8110.8536.5719.172.312.520.56-
2024/44.3428.3996.2214.36-5.6110.150.69客戶新品鋪貨致營收增加。
2024/33.3838.66-9.8510.03-22.9110.030.75-
2024/22.43-42.24-52.386.65-28.1910.590.72去年因1月春節連假部分訂單延後至2月出貨,致2月銷售增加;今年2月適逢春節期間,上班天數減少影響出貨。
2024/14.227.161.64.221.611.790.64-
2023/123.938.14-35.3243.68-43.2710.810.6-
2023/113.6412.39-54.5439.74-43.969.560.68去年因疫情銷售暢旺,客戶新品鋪貨,營收爆增;今年因景氣衰退,客戶庫存水位偏高,為消耗庫存調整策略,致營收衰退。
2023/103.2420.31-54.736.1-42.619.080.71去年因疫情銷售暢旺,客戶新品鋪貨,營收爆增;今年因景氣衰退,客戶庫存水位偏高,為消耗庫存調整策略,致營收衰退。
2023/92.69-14.62-44.2632.87-41.0610.260.67-
2023/83.15-28.63-43.3230.18-40.7611.440.6-
2023/74.4213.96-34.0327.03-40.4511.810.58-
2023/63.8710.1-47.6522.61-41.569.60.74-
2023/53.5259.27-57.3418.74-40.129.470.75去年因疫情銷售暢旺,客戶新品鋪貨,營收爆增;今年因景氣衰退,客戶庫存水位偏高,為消耗庫存調整策略,致營收衰退。
2023/42.21-41.01-71.4415.22-33.9511.070.64去年因疫情銷售暢旺,客戶新品鋪貨,營收爆增;今年因景氣衰退,客戶庫存水位偏高,為消耗庫存調整策略,致營收衰退。
2023/33.75-26.75-49.4413.01-14.9913.010.56-
2023/25.1123.23142.699.2617.3315.350.471.去年2月逢春節假期,出貨天數少,營收減少。 2.去年2月因假期生產不及,部分客戶之訂單延後到3月出貨。
2023/14.15-31.78-28.294.15-28.2918.240.4-
2022/126.08-23.99-14.4377.0-2.2821.230.42-
2022/118.012.019.670.92-1.0719.980.44-
2022/107.1548.03-5.8862.92-3.217.530.51-
2022/94.83-13.18-40.7155.77-2.8517.080.56-
2022/85.56-16.94-27.4750.953.419.660.49-
2022/76.69-9.55-3.3845.399.0922.350.43-
2022/67.4-10.285.7738.6911.5823.390.42-
2022/58.256.6116.1731.2913.0523.40.42-
2022/47.744.4421.6923.0411.9817.250.58-
2022/37.41251.624.0115.37.6315.30.77-
2022/22.11-63.59-27.127.89-4.2315.00.79-
2022/15.79-18.598.135.798.1319.590.6-
2021/127.116.2449.5378.899.3921.390.46美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/116.69-11.8666.8271.69106.222.420.44美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/107.59-6.74116.6665.0111.3423.40.42美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/98.146.1996.5757.41110.6622.740.41美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/87.6710.64103.1349.27113.1821.590.44美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/76.93-0.9790.0541.6115.1421.030.45美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/67.0-1.46162.134.67120.9720.460.38美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/57.111.67187.927.68112.5419.430.4美線品牌客戶新品上市,且受疫情影響致戶外高爾夫球運動熱絡,今年因應新品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/46.366.44104.3120.5894.9315.220.52本期營收較去年同期大幅成長係因美線品牌客戶訂單量大增:美線客戶新品上市,今年因應產品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/35.97106.694.7914.2291.0114.220.53本期營收較去年同期大幅成長係因美線品牌客戶訂單大增:去年第一季美線客戶無新品上市,今年因應產品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單大增。
2021/22.89-45.97223.788.2488.3613.00.58係因去年二月初新冠疫情爆發,大陸工廠依政府規定停工,故出貨量大減,另美線客戶今年因應產品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2021/15.3512.5753.645.3553.6414.120.53本期營收較去年同期大幅成長係因美線客戶訂單量大增:去年1月美線客戶無新品上市,今年因應產品鋪貨及市場需求,訂單量大增。
2020/124.7518.5219.1339.520.812.270.47-
2020/114.0114.4744.234.77-1.2711.660.49-
2020/103.5-15.3934.0930.76-5.1711.420.5-
2020/94.149.7337.527.25-8.6111.560.4-
2020/83.773.516.9823.11-13.7910.090.46-
2020/73.6536.562.3119.34-16.948.780.53-
2020/62.678.23-24.615.69-20.428.250.59-
2020/52.47-20.74-35.913.02-19.518.650.56-
2020/43.111.48-18.5610.55-14.397.070.69-
2020/33.07243.41-0.177.44-12.527.440.5-
2020/20.89-74.36-35.974.38-19.58.370.45-
2020/13.48-12.71-13.823.48-13.8210.260.36-
2019/123.9943.4629.5139.214.760.0N/A-
2019/112.786.4515.2335.222.540.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.222023/14.152022/15.792021/15.352020/13.48
2024/22.432023/25.112022/22.112021/22.892020/20.89
2024/33.382023/33.752022/37.412021/35.972020/33.07
2024/44.342023/42.212022/47.742021/46.362020/43.11
2024/54.812023/53.522022/58.252021/57.12020/52.47
2024/64.842023/63.872022/67.42021/67.02020/62.67
2024/75.652023/74.422022/76.692021/76.932020/73.65
2024/83.82023/83.152022/85.562021/87.672020/83.77
2024/93.132023/92.692022/94.832021/98.142020/94.14
2024/103.352023/103.242022/107.152021/107.592020/103.5
N/AN/A2023/113.642022/118.02021/116.692020/114.01
N/AN/A2023/123.932022/126.082021/127.112020/124.75
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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