玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.80.89-8.2126.259.538.51N/A-
2024/92.77-5.3621.323.4512.128.250.52-
2024/82.9315.2828.7320.6810.998.450.51-
2024/72.54-14.46-8.5217.748.528.680.5-
2024/62.97-6.0-8.3915.212.028.730.43-
2024/53.1621.8139.3612.2318.437.710.48-
2024/42.632.8112.189.0712.546.960.54-
2024/31.95-18.99-20.956.4712.686.470.58-
2024/22.4114.8369.064.5138.146.820.55瓦斯桶開關受客戶急單影響,淡季出貨較去年同期成長250%
2024/12.1-8.8714.172.114.176.970.53-
2023/122.31-9.856.8628.83-12.737.910.42-
2023/112.56-16.1119.8926.52-14.17.90.42-
2023/103.0533.3439.0823.96-16.637.610.43-
2023/92.290.43-9.0520.91-21.237.340.58-
2023/82.28-18.08-13.6618.63-22.58.30.51-
2023/72.78-14.34-11.5116.35-23.598.290.51-
2023/63.2542.99-13.4213.57-25.677.830.5-
2023/52.27-1.94-33.6910.32-28.837.060.55-
2023/42.31-6.41-14.488.06-27.336.210.62-
2023/32.4773.26-22.05.74-31.485.740.68-
2023/21.43-22.44-45.03.27-37.255.430.72-
2023/11.84-14.71-29.561.84-29.566.130.63-
2022/122.161.13-39.8833.042.736.480.59-
2022/112.13-2.69-15.0930.888.096.840.56-
2022/102.19-12.8-31.7728.7410.337.350.52-
2022/92.51-4.65-14.6626.5516.258.290.57-
2022/82.64-16.034.8824.0420.849.530.49-
2022/73.14-16.191.8121.423.1510.310.45-
2022/63.759.5150.4118.2627.759.880.47瓦斯桶開關受客戶急單影響較去年同期成長43%;戶外烤肉爐則受COVID-19疫情影響,美國在家聚會用餐增加,銷售較去年同期成長40%
2022/53.4226.4732.5814.5122.979.30.49-
2022/42.71-14.64-4.4911.0920.288.470.54-
2022/33.1722.1643.38.3831.278.380.51-
2022/22.6-0.6741.455.2124.898.80.48-
2022/12.61-27.2111.882.6111.888.720.49-
2021/123.5942.8413.9932.1614.889.320.48-
2021/112.51-21.818.3828.5715.08.670.51-
2021/103.219.0614.526.0514.688.680.51-
2021/92.9517.1733.3722.8414.78.550.61-
2021/82.51-18.49-7.7219.8912.378.090.64-
2021/73.0923.829.0417.3816.038.160.64-
2021/62.49-3.46-3.4714.2913.567.910.63-
2021/52.58-8.89-11.1911.817.967.630.65-
2021/42.8328.0748.079.2229.916.880.73-
2021/32.2120.5926.296.3823.26.380.68-
2021/21.83-21.430.514.1721.637.320.6-
2021/12.34-25.8445.672.3445.677.610.57-
2020/123.1548.3488.5427.9914.48.080.44瓦斯桶開關受客戶急單影響較去年同期成長90%;戶外烤肉爐則受COVID-19疫情影響,美國在家聚會用餐增加,銷售較去年同期成長74%
2020/112.12-24.3613.3724.848.977.140.5-
2020/102.8127.0359.5922.728.577.740.46瓦斯桶開關受客戶急單影響較去年同期成長66%;戶外烤肉爐則受COVID-19疫情影響,美國在家聚會用餐增加,銷售較去年同期成長47%
2020/92.21-18.9318.2319.913.897.330.48-
2020/82.7313.9821.8517.72.347.70.45-
2020/72.39-7.390.6414.97-0.557.880.44-
2020/62.58-11.188.0712.58-0.777.40.39-
2020/52.9151.9112.510.0-2.826.570.44-
2020/41.919.23-18.227.09-7.965.490.52-
2020/31.75-4.01-13.315.18-3.495.180.67-
2020/21.8313.8615.983.432.425.10.68-
2020/11.6-4.02-9.61.6-9.65.150.67-
2019/121.67-10.79-4.3324.46-3.850.0N/A-
2019/111.876.46-15.9622.79-3.810.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.12023/11.842022/12.612021/12.342020/11.6
2024/22.412023/21.432022/22.62021/21.832020/21.83
2024/31.952023/32.472022/33.172021/32.212020/31.75
2024/42.62023/42.312022/42.712021/42.832020/41.91
2024/53.162023/52.272022/53.422021/52.582020/52.91
2024/62.972023/63.252022/63.752021/62.492020/62.58
2024/72.542023/72.782022/73.142021/73.092020/72.39
2024/82.932023/82.282022/82.642021/82.512020/82.73
2024/92.772023/92.292022/92.512021/92.952020/92.21
2024/102.82023/103.052022/102.192021/103.212020/102.81
N/AN/A2023/112.562022/112.132021/112.512020/112.12
N/AN/A2023/122.312022/122.162021/123.592020/123.15
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 27.16%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.95-10.38-30.15
24Q2 (19)1.066.0-27.4
24Q1 (18)1.014.94-22.48
23Q4 (17)0.87-36.03-34.09
23Q3 (16)1.36-6.85-15.53
23Q2 (15)1.4613.18-21.08
23Q1 (14)1.29-2.27-35.82
22Q4 (13)1.32-18.01-16.98
22Q3 (12)1.61-12.97-25.12
22Q2 (11)1.85-7.96-33.45
22Q1 (10)2.0126.4239.58
21Q4 (9)1.59-26.0532.5
21Q3 (8)2.15-22.6686.96
21Q2 (7)2.7893.060
21Q1 (6)1.4420.00
20Q4 (5)1.24.350
20Q3 (4)1.1500.0

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