玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.00.0-100.05.94-26.940.04N/A終端客戶去化庫存及風險管控
2024/100.0-100.0-100.05.94-18.630.08N/A終端客戶去化庫存及風險管控
2024/90.041.97-95.895.94-6.250.510.0終端客戶去化庫存
2024/80.04-90.98-93.585.99.721.320.0終端客戶去化庫存
2024/70.43-49.78-20.835.8622.712.190.0-
2024/60.85-6.22112.055.4326.652.520.0主係去年同期業務調整基期較低所致
2024/50.9118.510.04.5819.492.860.0主係去年同期因應下游廠商庫存量調整,暫未出貨。
2024/40.77-35.720.03.67-4.182.380.0主係去年同期因應下游廠商庫存量調整,暫未出貨;及本期降低生煤買賣比例所致。
2024/31.19179.210.02.91-24.162.910.0主係去年同期因應下游廠商庫存量調節,暫未出貨;及本期降低生煤買賣比例所致
2024/20.43-66.87-76.861.71-55.252.120.0二月營業天數減少,致電子零組件營收下降及降低生煤買賣比例所致
2024/11.29220.85-35.21.29-35.22.520.0-
2023/120.4-51.64-81.758.53-43.232.20.0降低生煤買賣比例所致
2023/110.83-13.870.08.13-36.622.750.0因去年同期無業務量所致
2023/100.960.64-12.997.3-43.092.520.0-
2023/90.9659.5316440.86.33-45.942.10.0去年同期船舶延遲及本年度擴展新業務
2023/80.611.2-69.765.37-54.091.540.0降低生煤買賣比例所致
2023/70.5434.5-75.234.77-50.890.940.0降低生煤買賣比例所致
2023/60.40.00.04.29-43.140.40.0主因去年船舶故障及本年度擴展新業務所致
2023/50.00.0-100.03.83-49.180.00因應原物料價格下跌及下游廠商庫存調節,故五月份暫未出貨
2023/40.00.0-100.03.83-28.841.840.0因應下游廠商庫存量調節,故四月份暫未出貨。
2023/30.0-100.0-100.03.83-28.753.830.0因應下游廠商庫存量調節,故三月份暫未出貨。
2023/21.84-7.2223.193.8317.416.030.0-
2023/11.99-9.6312.511.9912.514.190.0-
2022/122.20.00.015.0226.163.310.0本月正常營收
2022/110.0-100.0-100.012.827.681.110.011月份無業務量
2022/101.1119034.9-32.2312.8227.53.10.0-
2022/90.01-99.7-99.211.7139.14.170.0本月營收較去年同月營收減少係因本月貨運船舶延遲抵達導致裝貨時程延宕所致。
2022/81.99-8.8931519.111.7152.224.170.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加係本月生煤銷售量較去年同月增加及價格上漲所致。本年累計營收較去年累計營收增加係生煤價格上漲所致
2022/72.180.062.439.7226.514.340.0本月營收較去年同期營收增加,係因煤價價格上漲。
2022/60.0-100.0-100.07.5418.912.160.0因船舶故障需修繕.導致裝貨時程延宕,並延至次月完成銷貨交易
2022/52.1632719.993.827.5447.294.280.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加係因煤礦價格上漲
2022/40.01-99.68-99.655.3934.373.620.0營業額下降之原因係預估本期四月份之煤礦價格上揚,故於三月份增加購入之需求量,並非業務下降所致。
2022/32.1241.27129.845.38156.835.380.0本月營收較去年3月增加,主係煤價金額上揚所致
2022/21.5-15.26249.443.26177.983.260.0本月營收較去年2月增加,主係煤價金額上揚所致。
2022/11.770.0136.921.77136.923.620.0本月營收較去年1月增加,主係煤價金額上揚所致。
2021/120.0-100.0-100.011.9145.163.490.0客戶訂貨時程較接近月底,故營收認列時間為次月。
2021/111.8513.19190.011.9157.954.220.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加190.01%係因煤礦價格上漲及客戶採購量增加所致
2021/101.63124.0195.7310.0645.742.370.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加195.73%係因煤礦價格上漲及客戶採購量增加所致
2021/90.7311521.310.08.4232.672.080.0-
2021/80.01-99.53-99.07.6935.322.570.0本月減少原因係因船期遲滯導致延遲交貨
2021/71.349.79104.797.6852.053.680.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加係因煤礦價格上漲及客戶採購量增加所致
2021/61.229.85131.776.3444.194.250.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加係因煤礦價格上漲及客戶採購量增加所致
2021/51.11-41.86130.825.1232.273.950.0本月營收較去年同月營收增加130.83%係因煤礦價格上漲及客戶採購量增加所致
2021/41.91107.95167.564.0118.253.260.0本年度煤價上漲
2021/30.92114.782.642.09-21.672.090.0-
2021/20.43-42.55-52.21.17-33.941.840.0主係客戶採購量減少所致
2021/10.7512.26-15.370.75-15.372.050.0-
2020/120.664.1-20.668.221.971.860.0-
2020/110.6415.425.917.5428.031.850.0-
2020/100.55-16.67-14.26.930.551.850.0-
2020/90.665.4-0.996.3536.771.950.0本年累計較去年累計增加36.77%主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/80.63-3.9363.35.6843.141.810.0本月較去年同期增加63.31%及本年累計較去年累計增加43.15%主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/70.6624.26-7.035.0540.971.660.0本年累計較去年累計增加40.98%主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/60.539.4-27.264.452.721.720.0本年累計較去年累計增加52.73%主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/50.48-32.61-35.923.8779.632.090.0本年累計較去年累計增加79.64%主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/40.72-20.22-9.883.39141.582.510.0主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/30.90.01427.982.67338.932.670.0主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/20.91.71323.671.78304.532.610.0主係客戶採購量增加所致
2020/10.885.24286.750.88286.750.0N/A主係客戶採購量增加所致
2019/120.8438.97175.936.72-25.960.0N/A係本期客戶需求增加所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.292023/11.992022/11.772021/10.752020/10.88
2024/20.432023/21.842022/21.52021/20.432020/20.9
2024/31.192023/30.02022/32.122021/30.922020/30.9
2024/40.772023/40.02022/40.012021/41.912020/40.72
2024/50.912023/50.02022/52.162021/51.112020/50.48
2024/60.852023/60.42022/60.02021/61.222020/60.53
2024/70.432023/70.542022/72.182021/71.342020/70.66
2024/80.042023/80.62022/81.992021/80.012020/80.63
2024/90.042023/90.962022/90.012021/90.732020/90.66
2024/100.02023/100.962022/101.112021/101.632020/100.55
2024/110.02023/110.832022/110.02021/111.852020/110.64
N/AN/A2023/120.42022/122.22021/120.02020/120.66
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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