玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/112.9131.3-12.4727.63-8.417.29N/A-
2024/102.222.56-43.9224.71-7.917.04N/A-
2024/92.16-18.58-11.8822.49-1.687.161.09-
2024/82.6613.21-2.5820.33-0.467.31.07-
2024/72.352.291.2417.68-0.137.391.05-
2024/62.29-16.67-11.2815.33-0.348.121.1-
2024/52.75-10.35-31.8713.041.868.581.04-
2024/43.0711.386.2910.2817.427.421.21-
2024/32.7672.8119.287.2122.97.211.46-
2024/21.59-44.294.924.4625.268.071.3-
2024/12.86-20.8140.412.8640.419.811.07-
2023/123.628.6783.0733.78-16.7410.91.03市場回溫,客戶已去化庫存,訂單增加
2023/113.33-15.8848.6530.16-21.859.741.16-
2023/103.9661.1967.3826.84-26.199.141.23短期市場需求量增加
2023/92.45-9.99-5.9922.88-32.697.51.69-
2023/82.7317.66-6.520.43-34.917.631.66-
2023/72.32-10.36-4.5317.7-37.828.941.42-
2023/62.59-36.0119.9315.38-40.939.511.37-
2023/54.0439.8824.4712.8-46.429.241.41-
2023/42.8924.98-39.578.76-57.576.721.932022Q2起國際情勢導致物價原料持續大漲,引發停滯性通膨,降低消費者購買力,及因客戶高估需求庫存太多待去化,大幅減少訂單。
2023/32.3152.02-59.765.87-62.995.872.37國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,及因客戶高估需求庫存太多待去化大幅減少訂單。
2023/21.52-25.45-60.283.56-64.825.532.52國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,及因客戶高估需求庫存太多待去化大幅減少訂單。
2023/12.043.23-67.592.04-67.596.252.23因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/121.98-11.75-61.2840.57-34.586.582.07因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/112.24-5.28-61.438.6-32.197.211.89因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/102.36-9.47-63.5836.36-28.887.891.73因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/92.61-10.47-49.5934.0-23.837.951.84因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/82.9220.13-56.7931.39-20.457.51.96因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/72.4312.6-58.5228.47-12.967.831.87因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/62.16-33.59-51.0126.04-3.0310.181.55因COVID-19持續影響,全球供應鏈受阻。國際情勢導致物價原料運費持續大漲,引發嚴重通膨,降低消費者購買力,客戶大幅減少訂單。
2022/53.25-32.09-33.9523.896.3613.771.15-
2022/44.78-16.760.620.6417.6514.351.1-
2022/35.7450.0520.9215.8623.9815.861.0-
2022/23.83-39.1721.3310.1225.7815.221.04-
2022/16.2923.3328.656.2928.6517.190.92-
2021/125.1-12.03-7.0562.0317.6517.390.84-
2021/115.8-10.6216.6956.9320.5317.470.84-
2021/106.4925.2939.6551.1320.9818.420.8-
2021/95.18-23.26-2.3444.6418.6717.780.77-
2021/86.7515.3465.2439.4622.1217.00.81客戶訂單需求增加
2021/75.8532.9913.9532.7115.8815.170.9-
2021/64.4-10.473.326.8616.3114.070.82-
2021/54.913.4335.9922.4619.2614.420.8-
2021/44.750.0416.2417.5515.2812.650.91-
2021/34.7550.5628.8812.7914.9312.790.75-
2021/23.15-35.5-4.28.048.0313.530.71-
2021/14.89-10.917.734.8917.7315.350.62-
2020/125.4910.45111.9352.7225.5215.110.5疫情效應,美國人待在家中時間增加,導致需求增加。
2020/114.976.9594.747.2319.8414.920.51疫情效應,美國人待在家中時間增加,導致需求增加。
2020/104.65-12.3827.942.2614.6514.030.54-
2020/95.329.8447.237.6113.214.520.55-
2020/84.08-20.45-2.1732.319.0713.480.59-
2020/75.1420.5624.3728.2310.9213.010.61-
2020/64.2617.8525.3423.098.3111.960.6-
2020/53.61-11.58-27.3118.835.0811.390.63-
2020/44.0910.926.6515.2217.5211.060.65-
2020/33.6811.912.0811.1322.0911.130.61-
2020/23.29-20.7339.597.4527.7410.040.68-
2020/14.1560.3719.694.1519.690.0N/A-
2019/122.591.471.5542.016.960.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.862023/12.042022/16.292021/14.892020/14.15
2024/21.592023/21.522022/23.832021/23.152020/23.29
2024/32.762023/32.312022/35.742021/34.752020/33.68
2024/43.072023/42.892022/44.782021/44.752020/44.09
2024/52.752023/54.042022/53.252021/54.912020/53.61
2024/62.292023/62.592022/62.162021/64.42020/64.26
2024/72.352023/72.322022/72.432021/75.852020/75.14
2024/82.662023/82.732022/82.922021/86.752020/84.08
2024/92.162023/92.452022/92.612021/95.182020/95.3
2024/102.222023/103.962022/102.362021/106.492020/104.65
2024/112.912023/113.332022/112.242021/115.82020/114.97
N/AN/A2023/123.622022/121.982021/125.12020/125.49
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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