玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.04-61.99-36.01.78170.110.29N/A本年營收增加係銷量增加所致
2024/100.11-19.0176.231.74193.150.49N/A本期銷量增加所致
2024/90.14-42.9160.851.63207.140.61.15本期銷量增加所致
2024/80.249.78157.731.49235.380.641.08本期銷量增加所致
2024/70.2225.34214.331.25256.160.681.02本期營收增加所致
2024/60.18-30.46645.641.03266.610.730.8本期出貨量增加所致
2024/50.283.54619.510.92260.020.750.77本期出貨量增加所致
2024/40.2736.811126.320.64195.740.551.05本期出貨量增加所致
2024/30.2130.45143.080.3790.850.372.09本期出貨量增加所致
2024/20.09-4.6349.620.1853.70.233.34本期出貨量增加所致。
2024/10.0955.3257.80.0957.80.213.64去年同期受美國通膨、升息及氣候異常等因素影響,造成屋業建築施工延宕,故出貨較少。
2023/120.06-12.6357.680.72-89.470.194.74美國受到通膨衝擊及原物料持續波動不穩,導致客戶下單謹慎,故今年營收較去年減少。
2023/110.074.65-83.350.66-90.270.224.13美國受到通膨衝擊及原物料持續波動不穩,導致客戶下單謹慎,故營收較去年同期減少。
2023/100.06-26.08-91.590.59-90.70.243.66美國受到通膨衝擊及原物料持續波動不穩,導致客戶下單謹慎,故營收較去年同期減少。
2023/90.09-8.53-87.590.53-90.580.254.17美國受到通膨衝擊及原物料持續波動不穩,導致客戶下單謹慎,故營收較去年同期減少。
2023/80.0933.89-79.560.44-91.00.195.55因原物料持續波動不穩,導致客戶下單謹慎,故營收較去年同期減少
2023/70.07197.32-89.530.35-92.170.137.85因上游煤鐵原物料持續下跌,國際鋼價不穩,歐、美、亞洲等地區下跌至新低點,
2023/60.02-39.53-96.160.28-92.640.0811.59全球景氣復甦慢、國際通膨及升息壓抑端終需求,導致客戶下單謹慎
2023/50.0476.48-94.320.26-91.910.146.88美金持續升息及鐵礦砂價格持續下跌,客戶預期鋼價下調未到底及不想積壓太多庫存,整體需求動能不足,致營收減少.
2023/40.02-72.88-96.870.22-91.250.166.09全球經濟仍持續受到通膨、升息之影響,除終端需求低迷外,又因銷美同業削價競爭,我司為維持銷美反傾銷0%稅率及長期穩健經營,
2023/30.0841.85-88.570.2-89.010.25.36美國氣候仍然異常,不利施工,整體需求動能不足,致營收減少.
2023/20.060.57-91.170.11-89.30.156.95美國北部及中西部連續3個月氣候異常,屋業建築施工延宕,整體需求動能不足,致營收減少。
2023/10.0655.21-86.420.06-86.420.492.13因美國通膨、升息及氣候異常,造成屋業建築施工被延宕,疫情日漸趨緩進口商調低庫存量,導致需求暫緩,客戶觀望中。
2022/120.04-90.77-91.096.8219.061.191.01客戶訂單暫緩,因美國持續遭受世紀暴風雪肆虐,受極地氣候影響不可抗力之因素,建商無法施工。
2022/110.4-47.13-1.566.7827.61.840.65-
2022/100.758.98229.116.3830.011.90.63去年因塞港及缺櫃問題營業額較低
2022/90.6950.766.615.6320.271.820.45去年因塞港問題營業額較低
2022/80.46-31.417.874.9415.761.740.47-
2022/70.678.890.04.4816.641.970.42去年7月因為馬來西亞疫情嚴重,因應馬國政府政策停工
2022/60.61-10.57.923.81-1.152.010.82-
2022/50.69-2.9425.023.18-3.352.110.78-
2022/40.71-0.726.362.49-9.042.070.8-
2022/30.719.6-6.431.78-13.991.781.01-
2022/20.6554.73-0.681.07-18.381.481.21-
2022/10.421.84-36.010.42-36.011.241.45-
2021/120.411.91-30.165.73-6.561.051.88-
2021/110.476.74-29.935.32-4.041.051.88-
2021/100.23-44.82-57.564.91-1.031.071.84因疫情影響缺櫃所致
2021/90.42-2.42-17.274.685.860.842.23-
2021/80.430.0-13.064.278.820.991.88-
2021/70.0-100.0-100.03.8411.941.121.67因行動管制令配合停工
2021/60.573.67-11.843.8639.781.780.95-
2021/50.55-17.43-11.723.2955.551.980.86去年因受疫情影響,出貨較少
2021/40.67-12.66186.92.7483.632.080.81去年同期受疫情影響,出貨較少
2021/30.7616.32127.872.0764.612.070.74去年同期受疫情影響,出貨較少
2021/20.65-0.3139.191.3141.761.90.8-
2021/10.6611.1644.420.6644.421.820.84-
2020/120.592.2538.26.132.621.710.99-
2020/110.587.0365.695.54-0.111.621.04營收成長係客戶需求增加
2020/100.547.5862.534.96-4.531.531.1營收成長係客戶需求增加
2020/90.52.5348.754.42-9.11.660.75-
2020/80.49-27.2549.843.92-13.411.810.69-
2020/70.674.1523.523.43-18.331.940.64-
2020/60.653.817.22.76-24.561.50.71-
2020/50.62168.356.842.11-30.831.190.9-
2020/40.23-30.63-59.011.49-39.71.041.03因馬來西亞實施行動管制令,使工作天數減少所致
2020/30.33-28.94-38.311.26-33.971.260.97-
2020/20.473.422.180.92-32.251.350.9-
2020/10.456.38-49.760.45-49.760.0N/A-
2019/120.4322.58-51.425.97-28.880.0N/A因受市場景氣影響,客戶庫存去化緩慢,下單保守所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.092023/10.062022/10.422021/10.662020/10.45
2024/20.092023/20.062022/20.652021/20.652020/20.47
2024/30.22023/30.082022/30.712021/30.762020/30.33
2024/40.272023/40.022022/40.712021/40.672020/40.23
2024/50.282023/50.042022/50.692021/50.552020/50.62
2024/60.182023/60.022022/60.612021/60.572020/60.65
2024/70.222023/70.072022/70.672021/70.02020/70.67
2024/80.242023/80.092022/80.462021/80.432020/80.49
2024/90.142023/90.092022/90.692021/90.422020/90.5
2024/100.112023/100.062022/100.752021/100.232020/100.54
2024/110.042023/110.072022/110.42021/110.42020/110.58
N/AN/A2023/120.062022/120.042021/120.412020/120.59
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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