玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.58-12.6836.465.9830.712.15N/A-
2024/90.66-27.4516.065.430.132.121.21-
2024/80.9168.7581.294.7432.372.121.21客戶訂單時程調整
2024/70.54-18.1132.13.8324.361.81.43-
2024/60.6610.5522.313.2923.171.821.53-
2024/50.66.6641.442.6223.391.721.61-
2024/40.56-0.7229.072.0318.921.541.81-
2024/30.5636.8-8.241.4715.451.471.86-
2024/20.41-15.5621.470.937.721.921.42-
2024/10.49-51.8455.250.4955.252.141.28農曆年前客戶交機增加
2023/121.0260.74107.526.223.092.071.13季底出貨旺季
2023/110.6348.9629.925.21-6.111.631.44-
2023/100.42-25.73-60.54.58-9.581.51.57111年10月客戶集中拉貨,造成當月營收增加,112年無此情事
2023/90.5713.321.564.154.121.481.48-
2023/80.522.9611.193.581.791.451.51-
2023/70.41-24.18-15.323.080.41.371.6-
2023/60.5427.84-17.872.673.361.41.42-
2023/50.42-2.6644.62.1310.631.471.35-
2023/40.43-29.42-7.431.74.531.391.43-
2023/30.6281.1125.681.279.371.271.7-
2023/20.347.9114.640.65-2.511.141.89-
2023/10.31-35.63-16.060.31-16.061.291.67-
2022/120.490.63-22.056.041.172.051.02-
2022/110.49-54.71-7.255.553.92.031.03-
2022/101.07128.5786.315.065.122.01.04訂單增加
2022/90.473.6311.13.99-5.911.411.73-
2022/80.45-6.365.983.52-7.81.61.53-
2022/70.48-26.46-16.683.06-9.541.431.7-
2022/60.66125.1182.262.58-8.061.421.62去年因疫情爆發故出貨遞減
2022/50.29-37.69-23.041.92-21.391.251.84-
2022/40.47-4.17-24.711.63-21.091.261.83-
2022/30.4965.20.641.16-19.531.162.12-
2022/20.3-20.98-41.690.67-29.791.31.89-
2022/10.38-40.22-16.280.38-16.281.531.61-
2021/120.6319.73-1.595.9727.11.731.37-
2021/110.52-9.02-3.155.3431.611.521.55-
2021/100.5836.350.274.8136.961.431.65去年因疫情訂單減少,今年疫情趨緩,訂單增加
2021/90.42-1.13-1.784.2435.331.431.74-
2021/80.43-26.3950.373.8241.241.371.82去年因疫情訂單減少,今年疫情趨緩,訂單增加
2021/70.5860.86122.063.3940.171.321.88去年因疫情訂單減少,今年疫情逐漸平緩,訂單增加
2021/60.36-4.95-0.612.8130.231.361.83-
2021/50.38-39.0319.592.4536.491.491.68-
2021/40.6228.09298.92.0740.121.621.55訂單增加
2021/30.49-4.311.661.449.461.441.68-
2021/20.5113.4525.530.968.371.591.52-
2021/10.45-29.73-6.170.45-6.171.631.49-
2020/120.6417.83-11.694.69-22.581.561.69-
2020/110.5441.1649.924.06-24.061.351.95-
2020/100.38-10.914.763.51-29.421.12.4-
2020/90.4351.3522.993.13-32.130.983.2-
2020/80.288.7-51.352.7-36.650.913.43訂單減少
2020/70.26-28.0-51.142.42-34.320.943.31訂單減少
2020/60.3614.36-19.352.16-31.460.843.72-
2020/50.32103.32-46.711.79-33.480.913.42-
2020/40.16-64.14-64.161.47-29.721.03.12訂單減少
2020/30.447.58-46.491.32-20.681.322.43-
2020/20.4-15.222.350.884.091.61.99-
2020/10.48-33.87-7.590.48-7.591.562.05-
2019/120.72100.06-42.96.06-31.290.0N/A-
2019/110.36-1.35-66.055.34-29.340.0N/A訂單減少
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.492023/10.312022/10.382021/10.452020/10.48
2024/20.412023/20.342022/20.32021/20.512020/20.4
2024/30.562023/30.622022/30.492021/30.492020/30.44
2024/40.562023/40.432022/40.472021/40.622020/40.16
2024/50.62023/50.422022/50.292021/50.382020/50.32
2024/60.662023/60.542022/60.662021/60.362020/60.36
2024/70.542023/70.412022/70.482021/70.582020/70.26
2024/80.912023/80.52022/80.452021/80.432020/80.28
2024/90.662023/90.572022/90.472021/90.422020/90.43
2024/100.582023/100.422022/101.072021/100.582020/100.38
N/AN/A2023/110.632022/110.492021/110.522020/110.54
N/AN/A2023/121.022022/120.492021/120.632020/120.64
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 20.4%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.7312.3148.98
24Q2 (19)0.65-25.2954.76
24Q1 (18)0.8752.6350.0
23Q4 (17)0.5716.337.55
23Q3 (16)0.4916.67-41.67
23Q2 (15)0.42-27.59-16.0
23Q1 (14)0.589.4352.63
22Q4 (13)0.53-36.929.27
22Q3 (12)0.8468.071.43
22Q2 (11)0.531.58-19.35
22Q1 (10)0.38-7.32-17.39
21Q4 (9)0.41-16.33-18.0
21Q3 (8)0.49-20.9713.95
21Q2 (7)0.6234.78129.63
21Q1 (6)0.46-8.064.29
20Q4 (5)0.516.2835.14
20Q3 (4)0.4359.260.0
20Q2 (3)0.27-3.570.0
20Q1 (2)0.28-24.320.0
19Q4 (1)0.370.00.0

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