玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/11125.4915.3183.19948.8424.42334.79N/A客戶需求增加
2024/10108.838.3151.6823.3518.62303.47N/A客戶需求增加
2024/9100.476.6933.69714.5314.81281.930.63-
2024/894.177.8827.23614.0612.22267.650.67-
2024/787.291.2716.22519.899.87261.240.68-
2024/686.19-1.7917.67432.68.67244.120.68-
2024/587.7725.0735.59346.416.65234.120.71-
2024/470.17-7.8910.98258.65-0.55199.80.83-
2024/376.1842.534.29188.48-4.25188.480.82-
2024/253.45-9.18-12.55112.3-9.3191.570.81-
2024/158.85-25.76-6.1358.85-6.13206.630.75-
2023/1279.2815.72-9.6841.889.04219.560.62-
2023/1168.5-4.570.48762.6111.43215.440.63-
2023/1071.78-4.488.58694.1112.64220.950.61-
2023/975.151.532.26622.3213.13224.270.63-
2023/874.01-1.4515.79547.1714.81222.360.64-
2023/775.12.539.78473.1614.65213.080.67-
2023/673.2413.155.93398.0515.62201.20.64-
2023/564.732.375.14324.8118.06201.00.64-
2023/463.22-13.4412.38260.0821.78197.390.66-
2023/373.0419.518.21196.8625.15196.860.66-
2023/261.12-2.5164.25123.8137.87211.520.61客戶需求增加
2023/162.7-28.5119.2162.719.21218.570.59-
2022/1287.728.6430.52772.0529.54221.980.58-
2022/1168.173.1227.31684.3529.41207.760.62-
2022/1066.11-10.0330.4616.1829.65203.510.63-
2022/973.4914.9642.56550.0729.56205.810.6-
2022/863.92-6.5615.74476.5927.76201.470.62-
2022/768.41-1.0551.1412.6729.85199.110.62客戶需求增加
2022/669.1412.3153.06344.2626.32186.960.76客戶需求增加
2022/561.569.4225.34275.1221.01185.320.76-
2022/456.26-16.6421.65213.5619.82160.970.88-
2022/367.581.3930.04157.319.17157.30.92-
2022/237.21-29.242.4389.812.13156.990.93-
2022/152.59-21.7320.1852.5920.18173.330.84-
2021/1267.1925.486.03595.999.44171.430.77-
2021/1153.555.627.27528.89.89155.790.85-
2021/1050.7-1.6415.74475.2510.19157.460.84-
2021/951.54-6.65-4.4424.559.56152.040.81-
2021/855.2221.9713.1373.0111.82145.670.85-
2021/745.270.229.76317.7911.6139.560.89-
2021/645.17-8.02-5.7272.5111.91140.530.86-
2021/549.116.230.49227.3416.22147.260.82-
2021/446.25-10.913.56178.2312.83134.470.9-
2021/351.942.8911.58131.9812.57131.980.76-
2021/236.32-16.986.8980.0813.22143.440.7-
2021/143.76-30.9419.0743.7619.07157.030.64-
2020/1263.3626.9423.59544.57-1.7157.080.52-
2020/1149.9113.9617.07481.2-4.28147.630.55-
2020/1043.8-18.76-5.64431.29-6.26146.540.56-
2020/953.9210.43-9.49387.49-6.33143.990.6-
2020/848.8218.37-17.5333.57-5.8137.970.63-
2020/741.24-13.9-9.66284.75-3.45126.790.68-
2020/647.9127.289.01243.5-2.31126.260.86-
2020/537.64-7.57-22.09195.6-4.73124.870.87-
2020/440.72-12.46-10.17157.960.6121.220.9-
2020/346.5236.896.68117.245.43117.240.83-
2020/233.98-7.5217.8570.734.63122.00.8-
2020/136.75-28.32-5.1936.75-5.190.0N/A-
2019/1251.2720.253.77554.0128.560.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/158.852023/162.72022/152.592021/143.762020/136.75
2024/253.452023/261.122022/237.212021/236.322020/233.98
2024/376.182023/373.042022/367.52021/351.92020/346.52
2024/470.172023/463.222022/456.262021/446.252020/440.72
2024/587.772023/564.732022/561.562021/549.112020/537.64
2024/686.192023/673.242022/669.142021/645.172020/647.91
2024/787.292023/775.12022/768.412021/745.272020/741.24
2024/894.172023/874.012022/863.922021/855.222020/848.82
2024/9100.472023/975.152022/973.492021/951.542020/953.92
2024/10108.832023/1071.782022/1066.112021/1050.72020/1043.8
2024/11125.492023/1168.52022/1168.172021/1153.552020/1149.91
N/AN/A2023/1279.282022/1287.72021/1267.192020/1263.36
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 132.65%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)74.43-6.02349.46
24Q2 (19)79.2-1.79713.98
24Q1 (18)80.6428.94760.62
23Q4 (17)62.54277.66606.67
23Q3 (16)16.5670.291.0
23Q2 (15)9.733.8415.7
23Q1 (14)9.375.8815.68
22Q4 (13)8.852.083.75
22Q3 (12)8.673.09-39.16
22Q2 (11)8.413.83-26.03
22Q1 (10)8.1-5.04-10.6
21Q4 (9)8.53-40.14-12.06
21Q3 (8)14.2525.33112.05
21Q2 (7)11.3725.575.73
21Q1 (6)9.06-6.650.0
20Q4 (5)9.744.3561.67
20Q3 (4)6.723.860.0
20Q2 (3)6.477.120.0
20Q1 (2)6.040.670.0
19Q4 (1)6.00.00.0

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