玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.01-17.1522.0810.2517.923.55N/A-
2024/91.22-8.237.799.2417.483.680.81-
2024/81.3316.8156.968.0314.913.520.85客戶專案出貨增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2024/71.136.8237.826.79.133.160.95-
2024/61.0610.7727.55.574.683.040.97-
2024/50.96-6.278.224.50.442.971.0-
2024/41.023.490.183.54-1.462.661.11-
2024/30.9952.45-7.882.52-2.122.521.13-
2024/20.65-26.66-18.511.531.992.281.25-
2024/10.8818.2725.070.8825.073.00.95-
2023/120.75-45.49-6.3810.8116.012.950.88-
2023/111.3766.1239.0110.0718.113.080.84-
2023/100.83-6.49-9.778.6915.372.551.02-
2023/90.884.5535.277.8718.852.551.16-
2023/80.842.570.376.9917.062.51.19-
2023/70.82-1.176.016.1419.82.541.17-
2023/60.83-5.97-9.515.3222.262.741.11-
2023/50.89-13.2321.584.4830.792.981.02-
2023/41.02-4.8440.013.633.282.891.05-
2023/31.0734.8741.832.5830.792.581.18-
2023/20.812.5622.941.523.92.31.33-
2023/10.71-11.4725.00.7125.02.491.22-
2022/120.8-19.06-4.199.327.382.70.94-
2022/110.997.8185.128.528.612.551.0客戶專案出貨增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2022/100.9240.1936.947.543.032.411.06-
2022/90.65-22.41-27.736.62-0.372.271.22-
2022/80.848.338.055.973.932.541.09-
2022/70.78-15.653.575.133.282.431.14-
2022/60.9226.3455.514.353.232.381.1客戶專案出貨增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2022/50.73-0.08-13.023.43-5.312.221.18-
2022/40.73-3.61-21.562.7-2.992.131.22-
2022/30.7616.913.591.976.311.971.33-
2022/20.6514.4424.921.218.092.051.28-
2022/10.57-32.14-6.340.57-6.341.931.36-
2021/120.8356.38-3.038.680.532.031.04-
2021/110.53-20.24-34.227.850.922.11.01-
2021/100.67-26.02-26.737.315.012.350.9-
2021/90.916.01-8.256.649.82.431.02-
2021/80.783.85-4.85.7413.312.121.17-
2021/70.7526.6313.474.9616.82.181.14-
2021/60.59-29.341.954.2117.412.361.1-
2021/50.84-9.8852.793.6220.392.51.04歐美客戶專案出貨增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2021/40.9327.2931.122.7813.172.181.19-
2021/30.7340.995.941.855.891.851.29-
2021/20.52-14.20.431.125.861.981.21-
2021/10.6-29.7411.010.611.012.271.05-
2020/120.866.085.158.634.172.580.8-
2020/110.81-11.1610.787.774.072.710.76-
2020/100.91-7.35-13.436.963.342.720.76-
2020/90.9820.3646.246.056.452.460.92-
2020/80.8223.833.445.071.12.061.1-
2020/70.6613.77-25.284.25-3.41.791.26-
2020/60.585.886.593.592.11.841.27-
2020/50.55-22.662.43.011.281.951.2-
2020/40.712.8525.242.461.031.911.22-
2020/30.6933.65-29.451.75-6.31.751.29-
2020/20.52-5.1651.771.0619.131.881.2客戶專案出貨增加,致本月營收上升。
2020/10.54-33.45-1.050.54-1.052.091.08-
2019/120.8211.7616.238.29-9.690.0N/A-
2019/110.73-30.58-10.947.47-11.850.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.882023/10.712022/10.572021/10.62020/10.54
2024/20.652023/20.82022/20.652021/20.522020/20.52
2024/30.992023/31.072022/30.762021/30.732020/30.69
2024/41.022023/41.022022/40.732021/40.932020/40.71
2024/50.962023/50.892022/50.732021/50.842020/50.55
2024/61.062023/60.832022/60.922021/60.592020/60.58
2024/71.132023/70.822022/70.782021/70.752020/70.66
2024/81.332023/80.842022/80.842021/80.782020/80.82
2024/91.222023/90.882022/90.652021/90.92020/90.98
2024/101.012023/100.832022/100.922021/100.672020/100.91
N/AN/A2023/111.372022/110.992021/110.532020/110.81
N/AN/A2023/120.752022/120.82021/120.832020/120.86
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.22%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.17-15.054.55
24Q2 (19)0.2-23.0825.0
24Q1 (18)0.2630.036.84
23Q4 (17)0.281.8281.82
23Q3 (16)0.11-31.25-26.67
23Q2 (15)0.16-15.7977.78
23Q1 (14)0.1972.73-38.71
22Q4 (13)0.11-26.6757.14
22Q3 (12)0.1566.67114.29
22Q2 (11)0.09-70.9728.57
22Q1 (10)0.31342.86520.0
21Q4 (9)0.070.075.0
21Q3 (8)0.070.0-41.67
21Q2 (7)0.0740.00
21Q1 (6)0.0525.00
20Q4 (5)0.04-66.670
20Q3 (4)0.1200.0

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