玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/109.06-1.7321.9386.2416.9927.64N/A-
2024/99.22-1.4923.3877.1816.4427.910.53-
2024/89.360.2422.7567.9615.5527.920.53-
2024/79.341.227.1858.6114.4827.690.53-
2024/69.231.0718.2949.2712.3627.370.52-
2024/59.131.2118.6940.0411.0826.570.54-
2024/49.027.0324.0230.929.0122.570.63-
2024/38.4364.253.0921.93.8321.90.64-
2024/25.13-38.5-25.6513.474.2921.720.64-
2024/18.341.1838.648.3438.6424.640.57-
2023/128.242.436.6790.01-13.0123.720.58-
2023/118.058.33-1.7281.76-14.622.950.6-
2023/107.43-0.54-7.2273.72-15.822.520.61-
2023/97.47-2.02-11.3166.28-16.6722.440.62-
2023/87.623.85-4.5258.81-17.322.770.61-
2023/77.34-5.89-16.6651.19-18.9222.830.61-
2023/67.81.44-17.2743.85-19.2822.760.63-
2023/57.695.75-19.6736.05-19.723.130.62-
2023/47.27-11.02-24.2128.36-19.7122.340.64-
2023/38.1718.44-14.8921.09-18.0321.090.73-
2023/26.914.68-1.3812.92-19.920.640.74-
2023/16.02-22.14-34.16.02-34.121.930.7-
2022/127.73-5.64-20.07103.473.9123.930.73-
2022/118.192.27-6.1495.746.4924.620.71-
2022/108.01-4.92-6.1887.557.8524.420.71-
2022/98.425.47-5.3179.549.525.220.74-
2022/87.99-9.34-12.9271.1211.5726.220.71-
2022/78.81-6.57-0.2963.1415.6927.810.67-
2022/69.43-1.514.5154.3318.7728.60.67-
2022/59.57-0.2318.244.919.7128.680.66-
2022/49.60.9217.6835.3220.1326.10.73-
2022/39.5135.8824.6325.6320.6225.630.68-
2022/27.0-23.3719.2816.1318.3725.890.67-
2022/19.13-6.4817.699.1317.6927.620.63-
2021/129.7611.8828.0199.6727.4127.030.58-
2021/118.732.2218.1189.927.3426.20.59-
2021/108.54-4.4632.7381.1828.4226.640.58-
2021/98.94-2.5625.7872.6828.026.940.5-
2021/89.173.7930.763.7428.3226.250.51-
2021/78.847.2434.9654.5727.9325.170.54-
2021/68.241.7225.8745.7426.6724.490.55-
2021/58.1-0.6614.8337.526.8523.880.56-
2021/48.156.8619.2629.4130.6121.650.62-
2021/37.6330.0710.721.2535.5721.250.62-
2021/25.87-24.3955.7313.6255.0821.270.62客戶訂單增加,出貨暢旺
2021/17.761.4254.597.7654.5922.80.58客戶訂單增加,出貨暢旺
2020/127.653.5315.1578.2511.1621.470.56-
2020/117.3914.8820.5170.610.7520.930.57-
2020/106.43-9.511.9363.219.7120.550.58-
2020/97.111.2819.6656.789.4720.670.58-
2020/87.027.1722.2649.678.1520.110.6-
2020/76.550.0413.1542.666.1320.140.6-
2020/66.54-7.2120.3336.114.9520.430.61-
2020/57.053.1511.8729.572.0620.790.6-
2020/46.84-0.899.3722.51-0.6517.50.71-
2020/36.983.156.4715.68-4.4415.680.78-
2020/23.77-24.94-5.228.78-11.5615.430.8-
2020/15.02-24.5-15.795.02-15.7917.80.69-
2019/126.658.4210.5270.39-12.530.0N/A-
2019/116.136.70.8863.74-14.40.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/18.342023/16.022022/19.132021/17.762020/15.02
2024/25.132023/26.92022/27.02021/25.872020/23.77
2024/38.432023/38.172022/39.512021/37.632020/36.9
2024/49.022023/47.272022/49.62021/48.152020/46.84
2024/59.132023/57.692022/59.572021/58.12020/57.05
2024/69.232023/67.82022/69.432021/68.242020/66.54
2024/79.342023/77.342022/78.812021/78.842020/76.55
2024/89.362023/87.622022/87.992021/89.172020/87.02
2024/99.222023/97.472022/98.422021/98.942020/97.11
2024/109.062023/107.432022/108.012021/108.542020/106.43
N/AN/A2023/118.052022/118.192021/118.732020/117.39
N/AN/A2023/128.242022/127.732021/129.762020/127.65
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 7.59%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.2537.36267.65
24Q2 (19)0.919.64-34.06
24Q1 (18)0.83144.12-64.22
23Q4 (17)0.340.0-87.73
23Q3 (16)0.34-75.36-85.83
23Q2 (15)1.38-40.5210.4
23Q1 (14)2.32-16.25193.67
22Q4 (13)2.7715.42166.35
22Q3 (12)2.492.0179.07
22Q2 (11)1.2558.2337.36
22Q1 (10)0.79-24.04-13.19
21Q4 (9)1.0420.9325.3
21Q3 (8)0.86-5.49-3.37
21Q2 (7)0.910.033.82
21Q1 (6)0.919.64175.76
20Q4 (5)0.83-6.74144.12
20Q3 (4)0.8930.880.0
20Q2 (3)0.68106.060.0
20Q1 (2)0.33-2.940.0
19Q4 (1)0.340.00.0

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