玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.35-37.68-32.194.54-6.291.31N/A-
2024/90.5636.23-16.824.19-3.241.42.4-
2024/80.41-6.86-5.543.64-0.761.32.58-
2024/70.44-4.0513.033.23-0.131.332.53-
2024/60.465.78-19.692.79-1.921.392.66-
2024/50.43-13.37-1.222.332.511.472.52-
2024/40.5-7.056.01.93.41.452.54去年同期營收較平均水準低,目前客戶庫存已逐步改善, 公司接單升溫中
2024/30.5428.74-28.571.4-7.641.42.86-
2024/20.42-7.878.540.8712.741.412.86-
2024/10.45-16.116.910.4516.911.452.77-
2023/120.5416.81-6.815.85-34.331.512.73-
2023/110.46-9.75-1.215.31-36.241.642.51-
2023/100.51-23.5614.674.85-38.321.612.56-
2023/90.6754.79.464.33-41.511.492.9-
2023/80.4311.46-40.23.67-46.091.393.11-
2023/70.39-31.84-46.873.23-46.791.393.1-
2023/60.5730.1-41.072.85-46.771.333.33-
2023/50.4436.81-55.412.28-48.031.512.93整體出貨量仍受到客戶持續消化庫存影響,俄烏戰爭、通膨升息造成的需求趨緩,保守看待成長動能。
2023/40.32-57.41-54.431.84-45.91.453.03客戶持續調整庫存中, 需求面仍然疲弱,另關鍵零組件缺料致部分產品無法出貨
2023/30.7595.65-31.651.52-43.691.522.89-
2023/20.38-0.77-46.780.77-51.941.353.26因通膨及地緣政治風險加劇造成的供應鏈庫存高築及終端需求疲軟目前仍在消化中。公司正密切關注市場狀況,審慎因應。
2023/10.39-33.13-56.150.39-56.151.433.071.客戶仍持續調整庫存 2. 因農曆年休假,造成工作天數減少
2022/120.5823.83-36.928.9-6.161.492.87-
2022/110.474.76-41.238.32-2.871.522.81-
2022/100.45-27.03-48.537.861.041.782.41-
2022/90.61-15.49-46.027.417.252.061.99-
2022/80.72-0.96-8.876.817.692.421.7-
2022/70.73-24.43.366.0821.922.681.54-
2022/60.97-1.553.495.3524.982.651.55-
2022/50.9839.8239.674.3830.972.781.47-
2022/40.7-36.1237.073.428.662.521.63-
2022/31.152.3230.192.726.642.71.51-
2022/20.72-18.2421.131.624.332.521.62-
2022/10.88-3.7927.070.8827.072.591.57-
2021/120.9215.3723.339.49-1.532.581.65-
2021/110.79-8.25-11.668.57-3.612.791.52-
2021/100.87-23.4728.587.78-2.712.791.52-
2021/91.1342.6628.686.91-5.592.631.57-
2021/80.7912.33-0.095.78-10.272.431.69-
2021/70.71-24.35.744.98-11.72.341.76-
2021/60.9332.8541.264.28-14.042.151.82-
2021/50.737.22-3.593.35-22.52.061.9-
2021/40.51-39.33-25.512.64-26.331.952.0-
2021/30.8441.72-7.452.13-26.522.131.85-
2021/20.6-14.23-42.571.29-35.262.031.94-
2021/10.69-6.63-27.310.69-27.312.341.69-
2020/120.74-17.36-33.799.63-22.652.321.78-
2020/110.933.54-37.878.89-21.542.451.68-
2020/100.67-23.41-41.087.99-19.152.351.76-
2020/90.8810.76-4.677.32-16.282.342.0-
2020/80.7918.88-18.156.44-17.652.122.2-
2020/70.671.13-26.515.65-17.582.062.27-
2020/60.66-9.33-36.04.98-16.222.082.41-
2020/50.736.01-31.14.32-12.062.332.15-
2020/40.69-24.62-25.373.59-6.842.631.9-
2020/30.91-12.06-9.742.9-1.022.91.85-
2020/21.048.5516.381.993.563.141.71-
2020/10.95-17.09-7.50.95-7.53.551.51-
2019/121.15-20.45-20.4512.48-31.750.0N/A-
2019/111.4526.6426.511.33-32.650.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.452023/10.392022/10.882021/10.692020/10.95
2024/20.422023/20.382022/20.722021/20.62020/21.04
2024/30.542023/30.752022/31.12021/30.842020/30.91
2024/40.52023/40.322022/40.72021/40.512020/40.69
2024/50.432023/50.442022/50.982021/50.72020/50.73
2024/60.462023/60.572022/60.972021/60.932020/60.66
2024/70.442023/70.392022/70.732021/70.712020/70.67
2024/80.412023/80.432022/80.722021/80.792020/80.79
2024/90.562023/90.672022/90.612021/91.132020/90.88
2024/100.352023/100.512022/100.452021/100.872020/100.67
N/AN/A2023/110.462022/110.472021/110.792020/110.9
N/AN/A2023/120.542022/120.582021/120.922020/120.74
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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