玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.6515.568.715.9211.421.87N/A-
2024/90.57-13.34-15.445.2711.771.820.55-
2024/80.658.2646.984.716.281.860.54-
2024/70.6-0.6116.164.0512.481.770.56-
2024/60.617.74-7.213.4411.861.660.52-
2024/50.5614.686.432.8417.011.830.48-
2024/40.49-36.318.062.2719.971.680.52-
2024/30.7785.3323.941.7823.731.780.54-
2024/20.42-30.04-11.041.0123.571.690.57-
2024/10.59-12.4969.780.5969.781.890.51營收穩定成長
2023/120.6810.84-20.686.6111.391.890.47-
2023/110.611.9316.795.9316.811.880.47-
2023/100.6-10.133.85.3116.821.720.52-
2023/90.6750.6315.474.7114.951.630.56-
2023/80.44-14.432.144.0414.871.620.57-
2023/70.52-20.6129.543.616.661.70.54-
2023/60.6523.615.483.0814.741.640.57-
2023/50.5316.435.642.4214.541.610.58-
2023/40.45-26.951.231.8917.31.540.6-
2023/30.6233.0115.981.4423.491.440.62-
2023/20.4733.5386.970.8229.891.680.53本月銷售增加所致
2023/10.35-59.12-7.720.35-7.721.730.51-
2022/120.8663.2168.625.93-12.441.830.4本月銷售增加所致
2022/110.5316.77-13.035.07-19.011.550.48-
2022/100.45-22.42-6.34.55-19.651.460.51-
2022/90.5833.259.774.1-20.891.420.57-
2022/80.438.51-15.813.52-24.371.40.57-
2022/70.4-29.23-42.13.08-25.441.470.54-
2022/60.5713.07-28.262.68-22.091.520.52-
2022/50.511.57-1.762.12-20.251.490.53-
2022/40.45-16.31-14.281.62-24.651.240.64-
2022/30.54114.44-15.081.17-28.011.170.63-
2022/20.25-34.1-33.530.63-36.271.140.65-
2022/10.38-25.3-37.950.38-37.951.490.5-
2021/120.51-15.82-45.896.770.711.590.35-
2021/110.625.81-1.486.268.281.610.35-
2021/100.48-9.1-12.785.669.431.520.37-
2021/90.532.186.625.1812.081.740.33-
2021/80.52-25.37-12.194.6512.732.00.29-
2021/70.69-12.329.734.1416.881.990.29-
2021/60.7954.8347.363.4414.61.820.4-
2021/50.51-2.65-18.422.657.491.670.44-
2021/40.52-17.093.712.1416.271.530.48-
2021/30.6367.8513.091.6221.011.620.47-
2021/20.38-38.48-13.110.9926.681.930.39-
2021/10.61-34.8676.390.6176.392.160.35銷售增加所致
2020/120.9453.2717.66.725.252.10.3-
2020/110.6111.3818.935.793.491.660.39-
2020/100.5511.120.725.171.921.630.39-
2020/90.5-15.84-9.814.622.071.620.43-
2020/80.5910.2616.534.133.71.660.42-
2020/70.53-0.398.883.541.841.690.41-
2020/60.54-14.28-3.453.00.681.670.43-
2020/50.6323.7533.662.471.631.690.43-
2020/40.51-9.59-12.921.84-6.01.50.48-
2020/30.5628.95-13.711.34-3.091.340.52-
2020/20.4324.8851.880.786.271.580.44銷售增加所致
2020/10.35-56.57-22.70.35-22.71.660.42-
2019/120.855.01.036.391.560.0N/A-
2019/110.52-5.66-2.745.591.640.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.592023/10.352022/10.382021/10.612020/10.35
2024/20.422023/20.472022/20.252021/20.382020/20.43
2024/30.772023/30.622022/30.542021/30.632020/30.56
2024/40.492023/40.452022/40.452021/40.522020/40.51
2024/50.562023/50.532022/50.52021/50.512020/50.63
2024/60.612023/60.652022/60.572021/60.792020/60.54
2024/70.62023/70.522022/70.42021/70.692020/70.53
2024/80.652023/80.442022/80.432021/80.522020/80.59
2024/90.572023/90.672022/90.582021/90.532020/90.5
2024/100.652023/100.62022/100.452021/100.482020/100.55
N/AN/A2023/110.612022/110.532021/110.62020/110.61
N/AN/A2023/120.682022/120.862021/120.512020/120.94
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 45.6%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.484.96-6.92
24Q2 (19)1.412.17-7.24
24Q1 (18)1.38-10.39-15.34
23Q4 (17)1.54-3.141.99
23Q3 (16)1.594.6111.97
23Q2 (15)1.52-6.7514.29
23Q1 (14)1.637.9519.85
22Q4 (13)1.516.3417.97
22Q3 (12)1.426.7716.39
22Q2 (11)1.33-2.2115.65
22Q1 (10)1.366.2519.3
21Q4 (9)1.284.9216.36
21Q3 (8)1.226.0916.19
21Q2 (7)1.150.8822.34
21Q1 (6)1.143.6420.0
20Q4 (5)1.14.7620.88
20Q3 (4)1.0511.70.0
20Q2 (3)0.94-1.050.0
20Q1 (2)0.954.40.0
19Q4 (1)0.910.00.0

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