玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/113.32-3.94-11.5839.143.8910.8N/A-
2024/103.45-14.25-9.035.825.611.56N/A-
2024/94.03-1.22-17.732.367.4512.080.31-
2024/84.082.55-8.028.3312.3311.380.33-
2024/73.9819.715.5724.2616.6610.430.36-
2024/63.326.218.620.2819.1210.310.39-
2024/53.13-18.961.816.9619.2210.830.38-
2024/43.860.5536.0413.8324.029.60.42-
2024/33.84102.1520.249.9719.929.970.34-
2024/21.9-55.11-34.856.1319.729.840.35係因2月年節客戶提前拉貨及新產品銷售增加
2024/14.2313.9691.914.2391.9111.70.29係因2月年節客戶提前拉貨及新產品銷售增加
2023/123.71-1.08-5.1741.38-14.4111.260.35-
2023/113.75-1.13-10.3337.67-15.2212.450.32-
2023/103.8-22.45-4.9633.92-15.7313.130.3-
2023/94.910.4113.0730.12-16.9213.10.3-
2023/84.4317.69-14.2325.22-20.9811.00.36-
2023/73.7734.48-36.7620.79-22.299.640.41-
2023/62.8-8.83-42.4617.02-18.148.710.5-
2023/53.078.2838.7114.22-10.719.10.48-
2023/42.84-11.12109.5211.15-18.698.950.49係去年同期大陸子公司因上海地區封控管理影響生產及出貨,使基期較低所致。
2023/33.199.51-38.078.31-32.748.310.54-
2023/22.9232.22-6.175.12-28.929.030.5-
2023/12.2-43.68-46.182.2-46.1810.310.43-
2022/123.92-6.46-24.7948.35-9.1112.10.41-
2022/114.194.78-10.0744.43-7.412.510.4-
2022/103.99-7.73-13.9140.25-7.1213.490.37-
2022/94.33-16.251.8436.25-6.315.460.38-
2022/85.17-13.2222.5331.92-7.3116.00.37-
2022/75.9622.3622.1226.75-11.4813.040.45-
2022/64.87119.820.8520.8-17.948.440.77-
2022/52.2263.56-46.3515.93-25.288.730.74-
2022/41.35-73.73-67.0413.71-20.219.620.67係大陸子公司因上海地區封控管理影響生產及出貨。
2022/35.1665.9318.6512.36-5.512.360.53-
2022/23.11-24.15-20.217.2-17.5212.410.52-
2022/14.1-21.3-15.354.1-15.3513.960.47-
2021/125.2111.83-10.4453.24.4414.50.46-
2021/114.650.3-19.6547.996.3513.550.49-
2021/104.649.16-15.0543.3410.1813.110.5-
2021/94.250.76-30.3438.6914.2613.350.56-
2021/84.22-13.51-17.6234.4424.0613.130.57-
2021/74.8821.09-4.4630.2233.513.040.58-
2021/64.03-2.43-3.0725.3544.5512.270.57-
2021/54.130.4711.8921.3259.3512.580.56係因去年新冠病毒疫情影響基期較低所致
2021/44.11-5.4215.7917.1977.4312.350.57係因去年新冠病毒疫情影響基期較低所致
2021/34.3511.5779.2313.08113.0613.080.51係因去年新冠病毒疫情影響基期較低所致
2021/23.89-19.52232.368.73135.1514.550.46係因去年新冠病毒疫情影響所致
2021/14.84-16.7390.354.8490.3516.450.41係因去年同期遇春節連續假期
2020/125.810.3335.8750.931.8617.070.35-
2020/115.796.0427.7545.12-1.3217.360.34-
2020/105.46-10.4828.3939.33-4.5216.690.36-
2020/96.119.1623.4633.86-8.3116.330.38-
2020/85.120.292.4327.76-13.2214.380.43-
2020/75.1122.85-10.5922.64-16.1212.950.47-
2020/64.1612.634.9717.53-17.611.40.44-
2020/53.693.96-12.3413.38-22.769.660.52-
2020/43.5546.38-4.539.69-26.117.150.7-
2020/32.42106.89-19.416.14-34.656.140.71-
2020/21.17-53.91-49.033.71-41.837.990.55-
2020/12.54-40.56-37.782.54-37.780.0N/A-
2019/124.28-5.662.7550.03.610.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.232023/12.22022/14.12021/14.842020/12.54
2024/21.92023/22.922022/23.112021/23.892020/21.17
2024/33.842023/33.192022/35.162021/34.352020/32.42
2024/43.862023/42.842022/41.352021/44.112020/43.55
2024/53.132023/53.072022/52.222021/54.132020/53.69
2024/63.322023/62.82022/64.872021/64.032020/64.16
2024/73.982023/73.772022/75.962021/74.882020/75.11
2024/84.082023/84.432022/85.172021/84.222020/85.12
2024/94.032023/94.92022/94.332021/94.252020/96.1
2024/103.452023/103.82022/103.992021/104.642020/105.46
2024/113.322023/113.752022/114.192021/114.652020/115.79
N/AN/A2023/123.712022/123.922021/125.212020/125.81
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.03%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.42.56-13.04
24Q2 (19)0.3918.18-47.3
24Q1 (18)0.33-38.89-54.17
23Q4 (17)0.5417.39-8.47
23Q3 (16)0.46-37.84-11.54
23Q2 (15)0.742.785.71
23Q1 (14)0.7222.0314.29
22Q4 (13)0.5913.46-6.35
22Q3 (12)0.52-25.71-40.91
22Q2 (11)0.711.11-9.09
22Q1 (10)0.630.010.53
21Q4 (9)0.63-28.41103.23
21Q3 (8)0.8814.2976.0
21Q2 (7)0.7735.0992.5
21Q1 (6)0.5783.87185.0
20Q4 (5)0.31-38.082.35
20Q3 (4)0.525.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.4100.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.217.650.0
19Q4 (1)0.170.00.0

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