玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/114.7112.36-1.4749.8-24.6513.48N/A-
2024/104.19-8.69-16.0745.09-26.4613.57N/A-
2024/94.59-4.35-18.340.91-27.3714.490.63-
2024/84.8-6.13-32.8736.32-28.3814.560.63-
2024/75.119.83-10.6331.52-27.6414.830.62-
2024/64.65-8.3-47.5826.41-30.2114.470.62-
2024/55.076.94-23.0121.76-24.8914.220.64-
2024/44.747.65-7.2716.69-25.4512.350.73-
2024/34.4137.46-41.6911.95-30.8311.950.77-
2024/23.21-26.08-38.987.54-22.3913.480.68-
2024/14.34-27.02-2.884.34-2.8815.050.61-
2023/125.9424.42-30.0372.04-35.115.710.54-
2023/114.78-4.29-37.6466.09-35.5215.380.55-
2023/104.99-11.12-46.4361.32-35.3417.750.48-
2023/95.61-21.41-36.7256.33-34.1418.480.72-
2023/87.1424.97-38.8450.71-33.8421.740.61-
2023/75.72-35.57-43.5343.57-32.9421.180.63-
2023/68.8734.68-37.0637.85-30.9820.580.59-
2023/56.5928.7942.9428.98-28.8819.260.63-
2023/45.12-32.3-6.2322.39-38.0417.920.67-
2023/37.5643.85-41.4617.27-43.717.270.93-
2023/25.2517.63-30.849.72-45.3218.210.88-
2023/14.47-47.42-56.124.47-56.1220.620.78適逢農曆春節假期影響訂單延後出貨
2022/128.4910.89-39.79111.0-20.4525.470.68-
2022/117.66-17.8-36.7102.5-18.2825.850.67-
2022/109.324.98-11.094.85-16.3129.870.58-
2022/98.87-24.04-40.8485.53-16.8530.680.72-
2022/811.6815.3963.2776.66-12.7535.910.61訂單較去年同期增加
2022/710.12-28.1919.9964.97-19.528.830.76-
2022/614.1205.89-11.9154.85-24.1124.160.97-
2022/54.61-15.51-58.3740.75-27.5822.971.02因昆山廠停工影響致訂單遞延出貨
2022/45.46-57.73-49.5836.14-20.0325.960.9-
2022/312.9169.93-6.230.68-10.7230.680.65-
2022/27.6-25.37-19.9817.77-13.7531.880.63-
2022/110.18-27.85-8.4210.18-8.4236.380.55-
2021/1214.1116.61.47139.5414.6836.670.47-
2021/1112.115.57-3.52125.4316.3837.570.46-
2021/1010.47-30.2115.34113.3419.0132.630.53-
2021/915.0109.6432.54102.8719.3930.590.72-
2021/87.16-15.19-40.0187.8717.4131.60.7-
2021/78.44-47.28-28.8280.7128.335.520.62-
2021/616.0144.5250.3572.2741.5637.90.55訂單較去年同期增加
2021/511.072.337.1656.2739.2435.660.59-
2021/410.82-21.36-3.3945.1950.2634.080.62訂單較去年增加
2021/313.7644.9576.0534.3782.1234.370.58訂單較去年同期增加
2021/29.49-14.58126.2520.6186.4234.510.57訂單較去年同期增加
2021/111.12-20.0562.0511.1262.0537.560.53訂單較去年同期增加
2020/1213.910.8579.72121.6732.3435.520.43訂單較去年同期增加
2020/1112.5438.1740.43107.7727.9932.930.47-
2020/109.08-19.815.5595.2326.5132.320.48-
2020/911.32-5.1218.5486.1527.7935.10.44-
2020/811.930.6332.1574.8429.3134.430.45-
2020/711.8511.3648.5562.9128.7932.830.47-
2020/610.653.0117.6851.0524.9332.180.42-
2020/510.33-7.7532.440.4126.9929.350.46-
2020/411.243.3165.2830.0725.2323.220.58訂單較去年同期增加
2020/37.8286.2927.1818.879.4918.870.69-
2020/24.2-38.828.411.05-0.3118.790.69-
2020/16.86-11.33-4.986.86-4.980.0N/A-
2019/127.74-13.379.7591.94-1.950.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.342023/14.472022/110.182021/111.122020/16.86
2024/23.212023/25.252022/27.62021/29.492020/24.2
2024/34.412023/37.562022/312.912021/313.762020/37.82
2024/44.742023/45.122022/45.462021/410.822020/411.2
2024/55.072023/56.592022/54.612021/511.072020/510.33
2024/64.652023/68.872022/614.12021/616.012020/610.65
2024/75.112023/75.722022/710.122021/78.442020/711.85
2024/84.82023/87.142022/811.682021/87.162020/811.93
2024/94.592023/95.612022/98.872021/915.02020/911.32
2024/104.192023/104.992022/109.322021/1010.472020/109.08
2024/114.712023/114.782022/117.662021/1112.12020/1112.54
N/AN/A2023/125.942022/128.492021/1214.112020/1213.9
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 9.4%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.8327.6927.69
24Q2 (19)0.6522.64-9.72
24Q1 (18)0.53341.67-38.37
23Q4 (17)0.12-81.54-61.29
23Q3 (16)0.65-9.72195.45
23Q2 (15)0.72-16.28118.18
23Q1 (14)0.86177.42109.76
22Q4 (13)0.3140.91-27.91
22Q3 (12)0.22-33.33-40.54
22Q2 (11)0.33-19.51-28.26
22Q1 (10)0.41-4.65-24.07
21Q4 (9)0.4316.22-15.69
21Q3 (8)0.37-19.57-47.89
21Q2 (7)0.46-14.81-47.73
21Q1 (6)0.545.88-40.66
20Q4 (5)0.51-28.17-43.33
20Q3 (4)0.71-19.320.0
20Q2 (3)0.88-3.30.0
20Q1 (2)0.911.110.0
19Q4 (1)0.90.00.0

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