玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.33-84.1642.416.52-43.23.61N/A-
2024/92.0873.39147.86.19-44.963.751.04本月可完工案件較多所致
2024/81.2154.5839.144.11-60.512.191.79本月可完工案件較多所致
2024/70.47-9.02-82.182.91-69.521.552.53本月可完工案件較少所致
2024/60.52-7.04-49.452.44-64.661.772.5本月可完工案件較少所致
2024/50.56-20.02-75.211.92-67.311.393.2本月可完工案件較少所致
2024/40.7422.3413.221.36-62.411.064.18本月可完工案件較少所致
2024/30.13-42.27-86.390.67-77.880.676.41本月可完工案件較少所致
2024/20.23-23.21-80.150.53-73.770.835.14本月可完工案件較少所致
2024/10.30.91-65.170.3-65.170.775.54本月可完工案件較少所致
2023/120.374.63-90.3411.95-30.890.74.18本月可完工案件較少所致
2023/110.17-26.16-94.0811.65-17.951.242.36本月可完工案件較少所致
2023/100.23-72.45-88.9511.481.491.931.51本月可完工案件較少所致
2023/90.84-2.63-54.1111.2522.054.350.62本月可完工案件較少所致
2023/80.86-67.41-15.5310.4140.914.540.59-
2023/72.65158.1944.169.5549.975.920.45-
2023/61.03-54.4382.116.952.323.891.15本月可完工案件較多所致
2023/52.25265.42348.55.8848.13.851.16本月可完工案件較多所致
2023/40.62-37.220.783.634.622.761.62-
2023/30.98-15.82127.653.015.443.012.35本月可完工案件較多所致
2023/21.1734.7637.02.03-16.275.121.38-
2023/10.86-72.02-45.060.86-45.066.851.03-
2022/123.096.96128.8717.316.418.080.98本月可完工案件較多所致
2022/112.8937.9199.2414.215.166.821.16本月可完工案件較多所致
2022/102.114.48153.1711.32-6.154.951.59本月可完工案件較多所致
2022/91.8379.21159.499.22-17.894.692.57本月可完工案件較多所致
2022/81.02-44.3733.247.39-29.783.423.52-
2022/71.84226.15148.036.37-34.732.94.15本月可完工案件較多所致
2022/60.5612.22-50.694.53-49.741.687.88本月可完工案件較少所致
2022/50.5-17.88-71.013.97-49.611.548.56本月可完工案件較少所致
2022/40.6141.78-70.663.47-43.581.896.98本月可完工案件較少所致
2022/30.43-49.34-73.672.86-29.682.864.24本月可完工案件較少所致
2022/20.85-45.95-24.092.420.023.783.21-
2022/11.5716.5220.741.5720.744.382.77-
2021/121.35-6.88-22.414.86-22.253.632.77-
2021/111.4575.23-18.7813.51-22.242.983.37-
2021/100.8317.34-50.7912.06-22.632.34.37本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期少
2021/90.71-7.97-61.5511.23-19.222.213.78本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期少
2021/80.773.54-45.6110.52-12.792.653.16-
2021/70.74-35.16-35.239.76-8.453.612.31-
2021/61.14-34.02-40.829.02-5.234.961.27-
2021/51.73-16.91-55.517.873.815.451.15本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期少
2021/42.0827.24215.416.1466.274.841.3本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期多
2021/31.6446.0920.764.0633.824.061.41-
2021/21.12-14.036.732.4244.364.161.37-
2021/11.3-25.11107.141.3107.144.831.18本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期多
2020/121.74-2.5344.3119.1131.125.210.97-
2020/111.796.1684.6517.3729.935.30.95本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期多
2020/101.68-8.325.6915.5825.674.931.02-
2020/91.8330.16108.6713.925.664.391.07本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期多
2020/81.4123.333.3412.0718.54.481.05-
2020/71.14-40.75-14.8810.6616.786.960.67-
2020/61.93-50.396.819.5122.246.480.77-
2020/53.89489.06194.327.5926.915.910.84本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期多
2020/40.66-51.28-41.783.7-20.623.071.62-
2020/31.3629.117.283.03-13.83.032.04-
2020/21.0566.8430.581.68-28.992.892.15-
2020/10.63-47.83-59.680.63-59.682.82.21本月完工可認列營收之設備較去年同期少
2019/121.2124.7-37.3114.57-24.180.0N/A-
2019/110.97-27.73-46.8613.37-22.720.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.32023/10.862022/11.572021/11.32020/10.63
2024/20.232023/21.172022/20.852021/21.122020/21.05
2024/30.132023/30.982022/30.432021/31.642020/31.36
2024/40.72023/40.622022/40.612021/42.082020/40.66
2024/50.562023/52.252022/50.52021/51.732020/53.89
2024/60.522023/61.032022/60.562021/61.142020/61.93
2024/70.472023/72.652022/71.842021/70.742020/71.14
2024/81.22023/80.862022/81.022021/80.772020/81.41
2024/92.082023/90.842022/91.832021/90.712020/91.83
2024/100.332023/100.232022/102.12021/100.832020/101.68
N/AN/A2023/110.172022/112.892021/111.452020/111.79
N/AN/A2023/120.32022/123.092021/121.352020/121.74
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 40.4%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.54-29.83198.82
24Q2 (19)3.6269.1660.18
24Q1 (18)2.1456.2-55.14
23Q4 (17)1.3761.18-71.69
23Q3 (16)0.85-62.39-89.39
23Q2 (15)2.26-52.62-75.7
23Q1 (14)4.77-1.45-46.34
22Q4 (13)4.84-39.58-12.0
22Q3 (12)8.01-13.8720.27
22Q2 (11)9.34.6170.96
22Q1 (10)8.8961.6447.43
21Q4 (9)5.5-17.4212.02
21Q3 (8)6.6622.4390.83
21Q2 (7)5.44-9.7888.24
21Q1 (6)6.0322.81124.16
20Q4 (5)4.9140.6960.98
20Q3 (4)3.4920.760.0
20Q2 (3)2.897.430.0
20Q1 (2)2.69-11.80.0
19Q4 (1)3.050.00.0

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