玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.68-14.78-33.068.82-17.12.15N/A-
2024/100.7916.8323.18.15-15.432.25N/A-
2024/90.68-12.43-8.677.35-18.192.222.16-
2024/80.781.31-10.786.67-19.052.212.17-
2024/70.7613.83-9.345.9-20.022.392.01-
2024/60.67-29.2-14.385.14-21.42.452.21-
2024/50.9514.37-7.954.46-22.362.662.03-
2024/40.83-6.17-35.373.51-25.512.192.48-
2024/30.8886.97-39.972.68-21.822.682.22-
2024/20.47-64.33-51.271.8-8.172.592.31工作天數減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少
2024/11.3368.6934.121.3334.123.121.91-
2023/120.79-22.11.4311.43-19.452.442.59-
2023/111.0156.7119.5810.64-20.662.42.63-
2023/100.64-13.32-34.139.63-23.362.262.8-
2023/90.74-14.46-3.318.99-22.462.463.27-
2023/80.872.94-0.648.25-23.822.53.21-
2023/70.847.5-24.227.38-25.852.663.02-
2023/60.78-23.88-32.066.53-26.063.12.65-
2023/51.03-19.69-31.055.75-25.153.792.17-
2023/41.28-12.84-8.34.72-23.733.732.21-
2023/31.4751.77-14.923.43-28.253.432.27-
2023/20.97-1.83-19.141.96-35.812.732.85-
2023/10.9927.58-46.610.99-46.612.612.99-
2022/120.78-8.16-47.5914.19-12.152.62.76-
2022/110.84-13.68-26.8513.41-8.572.592.77-
2022/100.9827.23-0.3812.57-7.012.622.74-
2022/90.77-12.1-44.9311.59-7.532.762.34-
2022/80.87-21.48-45.2510.82-2.853.142.05-
2022/71.11-3.61-30.419.954.243.761.71-
2022/61.16-22.74-33.468.8411.224.051.26-
2022/51.56.78-3.877.6823.724.631.1-
2022/41.4-19.138.136.1932.944.331.18-
2022/31.7344.2428.134.7842.514.780.97-
2022/21.2-35.1759.83.0552.214.531.03客戶需求增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2022/11.8525.2347.671.8547.674.491.04-
2021/121.4828.1670.1716.1531.923.611.15本年度需求增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2021/111.1517.553.9214.6729.03.531.18-
2021/100.98-29.668.4213.5231.713.971.05-
2021/91.4-12.621.612.5433.964.590.8-
2021/81.6-0.2154.5211.1435.694.930.75本年度需求增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2021/71.6-7.8363.09.5532.984.890.75本年度需求增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2021/61.7411.6167.497.9428.224.590.78本年度需求增加,致本月營收較去年同期增加。
2021/51.5620.1358.056.2120.334.20.85本月營收較去年同期增加58.05%, 主係本年度需求增加所致。
2021/41.3-4.180.414.6511.443.41.05-
2021/31.3579.8915.233.3616.373.361.1-
2021/20.75-40.09-21.912.0117.152.871.28-
2021/11.2544.3267.281.2567.283.231.14本月較去年同期增加67.28%,主係去年同期工作天數短及本年需求增加所致。
2020/120.87-21.73-6.9712.246.742.881.28-
2020/111.1122.652.7211.377.963.161.17-
2020/100.91-21.12-1.6610.268.553.091.2-
2020/91.1511.0518.579.369.663.161.06-
2020/81.035.256.398.218.523.051.09-
2020/70.98-5.29-0.237.188.833.01.11-
2020/61.045.3234.356.210.423.310.82-
2020/50.98-23.67-7.435.166.613.450.78-
2020/41.299.9531.394.1710.563.420.79-
2020/31.1721.931.912.893.242.890.8-
2020/20.9628.3255.231.71-10.132.650.88需求上升
2020/10.75-19.73-41.650.75-41.650.0N/A-
2019/120.93-13.5710.5511.476.50.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.332023/10.992022/11.852021/11.252020/10.75
2024/20.472023/20.972022/21.22021/20.752020/20.96
2024/30.882023/31.472022/31.732021/31.352020/31.17
2024/40.832023/41.282022/41.42021/41.32020/41.29
2024/50.952023/51.032022/51.52021/51.562020/50.98
2024/60.672023/60.782022/61.162021/61.742020/61.04
2024/70.762023/70.842022/71.112021/71.62020/70.98
2024/80.782023/80.872022/80.872021/81.62020/81.03
2024/90.682023/90.742022/90.772021/91.42020/91.15
2024/100.792023/100.642022/100.982021/100.982020/100.91
2024/110.682023/111.012022/110.842021/111.152020/111.11
N/AN/A2023/120.792022/120.782021/121.482020/120.87
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.78%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.05-44.44-16.67
24Q2 (19)0.090.012.5
24Q1 (18)0.0980.050.0
23Q4 (17)0.05-16.67-28.57
23Q3 (16)0.06-25.0-33.33
23Q2 (15)0.0833.33-38.46
23Q1 (14)0.06-14.29-62.5
22Q4 (13)0.07-22.22-30.0
22Q3 (12)0.09-30.77-35.71
22Q2 (11)0.13-18.758.33
22Q1 (10)0.1660.033.33
21Q4 (9)0.1-28.5725.0
21Q3 (8)0.1416.6755.56
21Q2 (7)0.120.0100.0
21Q1 (6)0.1250.09.09
20Q4 (5)0.08-11.11-11.11
20Q3 (4)0.0950.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.06-45.450.0
20Q1 (2)0.1122.220.0
19Q4 (1)0.090.00.0

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