玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.5134.5777.717.3922.225.68N/A因10月訂單增加所致
2024/91.8743.4323.7514.8816.14.790.66-
2024/81.3-19.71-7.3813.0115.084.620.68-
2024/71.62-4.2530.211.7118.275.00.63-
2024/61.690.4722.7510.0916.555.470.32-
2024/51.68-19.5821.638.3915.385.270.33-
2024/42.140.7452.986.7113.915.030.35因113年4月客戶訂單增加所致
2024/31.492.66-22.954.612.074.610.45-
2024/21.45-13.482.923.1320.754.470.46-
2024/11.6824.3142.041.6842.044.360.47-
2023/121.350.83-10.5316.918.684.10.43-
2023/111.34-5.46.9515.5610.744.260.42-
2023/101.41-6.28-0.1814.2311.114.330.41-
2023/91.517.34-11.8312.8112.524.160.47-
2023/81.4112.8720.611.316.824.030.49-
2023/71.24-9.7311.469.916.34.010.49-
2023/61.38-0.43-3.688.6517.044.130.42-
2023/51.391.14-1.917.2822.014.690.37-
2023/41.37-29.1111.895.8929.444.710.37-
2023/31.9337.1425.724.5235.94.520.42-
2023/21.4119.480.442.5944.644.10.46因2月客戶訂單增加所致
2023/11.18-21.716.931.1816.933.940.48-
2022/121.5120.5411.115.5619.644.170.38-
2022/111.25-11.7133.0814.0520.644.380.37-
2022/101.42-17.2222.5512.819.544.290.37-
2022/91.7146.8265.1511.3919.183.990.46因九月客戶訂單增加所致
2022/81.174.31-9.299.6813.593.710.49-
2022/71.12-22.06.338.5117.653.960.46-
2022/61.431.3831.837.3919.584.070.46-
2022/51.4115.459.055.9616.974.170.45因五月客戶訂單增加所致
2022/41.22-20.354.194.558.093.540.53-
2022/31.5496.8335.643.339.63.330.45-
2022/20.78-22.6123.231.79-5.93.150.47-
2022/11.01-25.61-20.461.01-20.463.30.45-
2021/121.3644.3921.2913.0115.123.450.28-
2021/110.94-18.732.7811.6514.443.130.3-
2021/101.1611.5431.8410.7113.073.480.27-
2021/91.04-19.356.569.5511.163.370.32-
2021/81.2822.2982.648.5211.743.420.31因八月客戶訂單增加所致
2021/71.05-3.2912.667.234.543.020.35-
2021/61.0922.312.326.183.273.150.26-
2021/50.89-24.39-2.865.13.483.20.25-
2021/41.173.6724.384.214.932.940.28-
2021/31.1378.824.263.03-1.053.040.22-
2021/20.63-50.05-29.511.9-3.973.020.22-
2021/11.2713.4517.231.2717.233.090.21-
2020/121.1258.07-4.0511.3-6.282.70.32-
2020/110.71-19.28-24.0210.18-6.512.560.34-
2020/100.88-9.84-36.119.47-4.882.550.34-
2020/90.9738.222.248.590.112.610.25-
2020/80.7-24.56-24.057.62-0.152.70.24-
2020/70.93-12.17-2.086.923.142.910.23-
2020/61.0616.111.985.994.02.920.21-
2020/50.91-3.18-8.814.932.432.950.21-
2020/40.94-13.09-9.094.015.42.930.21-
2020/31.0920.890.953.0710.843.070.22-
2020/20.9-16.9372.081.9817.133.150.22因二月客戶訂單增加所致
2020/11.08-7.15-7.411.08-7.413.180.21-
2019/121.1725.1622.8312.0530.490.0N/A-
2019/110.93-32.1236.9910.8931.370.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.682023/11.182022/11.012021/11.272020/11.08
2024/21.452023/21.412022/20.782021/20.632020/20.9
2024/31.492023/31.932022/31.542021/31.132020/31.09
2024/42.12023/41.372022/41.222021/41.172020/40.94
2024/51.682023/51.392022/51.412021/50.892020/50.91
2024/61.692023/61.382022/61.432021/61.092020/61.06
2024/71.622023/71.242022/71.122021/71.052020/70.93
2024/81.32023/81.412022/81.172021/81.282020/80.7
2024/91.872023/91.512022/91.712021/91.042020/90.97
2024/102.512023/101.412022/101.422021/101.162020/100.88
N/AN/A2023/111.342022/111.252021/110.942020/110.71
N/AN/A2023/121.352022/121.512021/121.362020/121.12
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 9.94%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.1754.556.25
24Q2 (19)0.11-31.25-26.67
24Q1 (18)0.160.0-11.11
23Q4 (17)0.160.06.67
23Q3 (16)0.166.6723.08
23Q2 (15)0.15-16.6715.38
23Q1 (14)0.1820.080.0
22Q4 (13)0.1515.380
22Q3 (12)0.130.00
22Q2 (11)0.1330.00
22Q1 (10)0.100

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