玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.2-14.79.012.3934.134.1N/A-
2024/91.41-5.7718.8811.1837.544.291.63-
2024/81.497.7832.889.7840.724.191.67-
2024/71.396.0935.318.2842.233.991.75-
2024/61.310.9643.986.943.73.791.65-
2024/51.299.0346.885.5943.643.621.72-
2024/41.194.1139.254.342.693.181.96-
2024/31.1433.7141.213.1144.053.112.03-
2024/20.85-23.821.431.9745.753.032.09-
2024/11.125.3471.991.1271.993.31.92庫存去化訂單增加
2023/121.06-5.2316.3911.42-30.043.281.85-
2023/111.121.7414.4910.35-32.793.411.79-
2023/101.1-6.9714.589.23-36.03.411.78-
2023/91.185.3214.138.13-39.613.331.89-
2023/81.129.759.496.95-44.093.062.06-
2023/71.0212.88-7.015.82-48.922.812.24-
2023/60.912.99-32.294.8-53.42.642.74因通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2023/50.883.37-49.443.89-56.562.542.85因通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2023/40.855.57-50.793.01-58.282.363.06因通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2023/30.8114.99-55.912.16-60.642.163.63因通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2023/20.77.92-57.941.35-63.012.263.46因通膨等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2023/10.65-28.71-67.270.65-67.272.543.08因過年工作天數減少及整體市場需求下降
2022/120.91-6.78-52.0416.32-23.542.852.83因通膨、疫情等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2022/110.981.82-51.1515.41-20.752.982.71因通膨、疫情等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2022/100.96-7.34-54.2514.43-17.263.032.67因通膨、疫情等原因影響,整體市場需求面下降
2022/91.041.05-49.9313.47-12.193.172.74-
2022/81.03-6.8-47.5112.43-6.33.472.5-
2022/71.1-17.79-40.6611.40.824.182.07-
2022/61.34-23.09-24.5110.38.974.811.6-
2022/51.740.621.038.9616.715.311.45-
2022/41.73-5.414.337.2221.255.231.47-
2022/31.839.720.125.4927.795.491.09-
2022/21.67-16.0133.243.6632.025.561.08-
2022/11.994.4431.01.9931.05.891.01-
2021/121.9-5.0532.7121.3447.556.010.76-
2021/112.0-4.6244.0319.4449.186.180.74-
2021/102.11.3967.3417.4449.796.130.75旺季客戶需求增加及新產品逐步發酵
2021/92.075.9344.9215.3447.675.880.67-
2021/81.965.3762.7313.2748.115.590.7旺季客戶需求增加及新產品逐步發酵
2021/71.864.5747.7411.3145.855.360.73-
2021/61.782.9246.659.4545.485.160.67-
2021/51.723.9144.417.6845.214.910.71-
2021/41.668.8842.945.9545.454.440.78-
2021/31.5221.6942.024.2946.444.290.81-
2021/21.25-17.4238.512.7748.984.20.83-
2021/11.525.8158.911.5258.914.340.8新產品逐步發酵
2020/121.433.0347.714.4737.984.080.83-
2020/111.3910.8145.7113.0336.994.080.83-
2020/101.26-12.1833.911.6436.013.890.87-
2020/91.4318.9454.7210.3936.273.890.94旺季客戶需求增加及新產品逐步發酵
2020/81.2-4.3330.988.9633.733.671.0-
2020/71.263.838.727.7534.163.661.0-
2020/61.211.3540.536.533.323.570.89-
2020/51.192.8543.25.2931.773.430.93-
2020/41.168.1843.34.0928.773.141.02-
2020/31.0718.6833.32.9323.82.931.1-
2020/20.9-5.2625.371.8618.92.831.14-
2020/10.95-1.6413.370.9513.372.881.12-
2019/120.971.6418.2910.48-2.960.0N/A-
2019/110.951.837.039.51-4.710.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.122023/10.652022/11.992021/11.522020/10.95
2024/20.852023/20.72022/21.672021/21.252020/20.9
2024/31.142023/30.812022/31.832021/31.522020/31.07
2024/41.192023/40.852022/41.732021/41.662020/41.16
2024/51.292023/50.882022/51.742021/51.722020/51.19
2024/61.312023/60.912022/61.342021/61.782020/61.21
2024/71.392023/71.022022/71.12021/71.862020/71.26
2024/81.492023/81.122022/81.032021/81.962020/81.2
2024/91.412023/91.182022/91.042021/92.072020/91.43
2024/101.22023/101.12022/100.962021/102.12020/101.26
N/AN/A2023/111.122022/110.982021/112.02020/111.39
N/AN/A2023/121.062022/120.912021/121.92020/121.43
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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