玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/112.2312.5328.6821.27-1.115.91N/A0.877.13-
2024/101.9816.7211.7319.04-3.725.83N/A0.426.26-
2024/91.7-21.08-16.5417.06-5.245.790.630.465.84-
2024/82.1510.610.0715.36-3.816.060.60.565.37-
2024/71.94-0.946.7913.21-5.745.820.631.264.82-
2024/61.962.71-10.8511.27-7.615.630.60.563.56-
2024/51.918.89-8.679.31-6.95.930.570.622.99-
2024/41.75-22.56.987.39-6.435.440.620.512.37-
2024/32.2659.047.355.64-9.955.640.560.91.86-
2024/21.42-27.05-36.833.38-18.745.070.620.340.96-
2024/11.9515.282.731.952.735.380.580.620.62-
2023/121.69-2.24-18.3423.26.195.20.660.437.24-
2023/111.73-2.29-15.721.518.765.540.620.326.81-
2023/101.77-12.81-13.4219.7811.65.760.60.516.49-
2023/92.034.090.2118.014.875.810.570.665.98-
2023/81.957.31-3.4415.9717.045.980.550.755.32-
2023/71.82-17.312.2814.0220.616.110.540.724.57-
2023/62.25.2235.4812.223.935.930.570.83.85-
2023/52.0927.5615.2110.021.645.840.580.573.05-
2023/41.64-22.2313.427.923.476.00.570.512.48-
2023/32.11-6.4213.146.2626.46.260.540.821.96-
2023/22.2518.6361.364.1534.46.230.540.711.15本月營收較去年同期增加達50%以上,因去年同期營收基期較低所致
2023/11.9-8.3612.161.912.166.030.560.440.44-
2022/122.070.930.621.858.236.180.590.645.7-
2022/112.050.3631.519.786.326.130.60.365.06-
2022/102.050.9119.9717.724.016.10.60.774.7-
2022/92.030.2846.915.672.235.830.630.753.93-
2022/82.0213.6838.3413.64-2.185.430.680.643.18-
2022/71.789.52-1.911.62-6.935.220.710.562.55-
2022/61.62-10.51-1.799.84-7.784.890.720.371.99-
2022/51.8225.5813.268.22-8.885.130.680.321.61-
2022/41.45-22.43-11.576.4-13.674.710.750.331.3-
2022/31.8633.44-10.274.95-14.264.950.660.470.97-
2022/21.4-17.53-17.343.09-16.54.680.70.170.49-
2022/11.696.69-15.811.69-15.814.840.680.330.33-
2021/121.591.6-5.6920.19-7.044.860.690.215.98-
2021/111.56-8.43-14.8818.6-7.164.650.720.265.77-
2021/101.7123.56-3.717.04-6.384.550.740.225.51-
2021/91.38-5.55-22.5815.33-6.674.660.720.175.26-
2021/81.46-19.39-15.613.95-4.734.930.682.115.08-
2021/71.819.64-14.9512.49-3.275.070.660.662.97-
2021/61.653.2-21.510.67-0.954.890.650.242.31-
2021/51.6-1.95-20.129.024.035.320.60.252.08-
2021/41.64-21.29-5.07.4111.315.40.590.341.82-
2021/32.0822.942.785.7817.05.780.510.621.48-
2021/21.69-16.03.093.726.865.390.550.350.87-
2021/12.0119.557.322.0157.325.530.530.510.51本月營收較去年同期增加達50%以上,因去年同期營收基期較低所致
2020/121.68-8.29-2.2821.726.425.290.580.435.82-
2020/111.843.5836.4920.037.235.390.570.515.39-
2020/101.77-0.666.2418.24.965.290.580.464.88-
2020/91.782.9614.2316.434.825.650.560.44.42-
2020/81.73-18.77-7.0214.643.785.970.530.444.03-
2020/72.131.1915.4312.915.426.250.510.613.59-
2020/62.115.02-1.4510.783.645.840.610.612.97-
2020/52.0116.5912.228.674.975.750.620.742.37-
2020/41.72-14.844.846.662.965.380.660.481.63-
2020/32.0223.3228.924.942.324.940.670.581.15-
2020/21.6428.1741.242.92-10.464.640.710.410.56-
2020/11.28-25.77-39.061.28-39.060.0N/A0.160.16-
2019/121.7228.09-2.520.4111.970.0N/A0.217.3-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.952023/11.92022/11.692021/12.012020/11.28
2024/21.422023/22.252022/21.42021/21.692020/21.64
2024/32.262023/32.112022/31.862021/32.082020/32.02
2024/41.752023/41.642022/41.452021/41.642020/41.72
2024/51.912023/52.092022/51.822021/51.62020/52.01
2024/61.962023/62.22022/61.622021/61.652020/62.11
2024/71.942023/71.822022/71.782021/71.812020/72.13
2024/82.152023/81.952022/82.022021/81.462020/81.73
2024/91.72023/92.032022/92.032021/91.382020/91.78
2024/101.982023/101.772022/102.052021/101.712020/101.77
2024/112.232023/111.732022/112.052021/111.562020/111.84
N/AN/A2023/121.692022/122.072021/121.592020/121.68
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.1%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.3732.1415.62
24Q2 (19)0.28-22.22-6.67
24Q1 (18)0.36-20.0-14.29
23Q4 (17)0.4540.6236.36
23Q3 (16)0.326.67-38.46
23Q2 (15)0.3-28.57-28.57
23Q1 (14)0.4227.270.0
22Q4 (13)0.33-36.54-38.89
22Q3 (12)0.5223.8115.56
22Q2 (11)0.420.0-6.67
22Q1 (10)0.42-22.22-19.23
21Q4 (9)0.5420.08.0
21Q3 (8)0.450.07.14
21Q2 (7)0.45-13.460.0
21Q1 (6)0.524.030.0
20Q4 (5)0.519.0585.19
20Q3 (4)0.42-6.670.0
20Q2 (3)0.4512.50.0
20Q1 (2)0.448.150.0
19Q4 (1)0.270.00.0

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