玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.62-24.24-11.726.997.262.06N/A-
2024/90.8231.21-20.756.389.552.11.02-
2024/80.62-5.82-8.275.5616.081.91.13-
2024/70.667.912.544.9420.12.081.04-
2024/60.61-23.63-9.244.2723.382.081.04-
2024/50.821.5315.523.6631.282.170.99-
2024/40.66-6.4926.962.8636.51.921.12-
2024/30.7128.660.672.239.652.21.01-
2024/20.55-41.83.951.4971.02.181.02訂單增加
2024/10.9437.58173.780.94173.782.710.82訂單增加
2023/120.69-36.47-3.248.297.912.470.95-
2023/111.0853.853.197.69.042.810.84-
2023/100.7-31.994.346.5210.072.410.97-
2023/91.0351.8845.565.8210.812.361.04-
2023/80.685.27-20.344.795.392.01.23-
2023/70.64-4.48-9.344.1111.332.011.22-
2023/60.68-2.7919.283.4616.271.891.27-
2023/50.6933.5623.522.7915.571.921.25-
2023/40.52-25.8543.532.0913.161.751.37-
2023/30.732.8532.151.575.761.571.82-
2023/20.5353.2767.990.87-8.861.581.81訂單增加
2023/10.34-51.37-46.430.34-46.432.11.36-
2022/120.71-32.2315.237.684.042.431.26-
2022/111.0555.5627.316.973.022.431.26-
2022/100.67-5.1314.885.92-0.322.231.37-
2022/90.71-16.88-5.175.25-1.982.271.47-
2022/80.8519.857.564.54-1.472.131.57訂單增加
2022/70.7125.671.143.69-9.311.841.82-
2022/60.570.65-9.632.98-11.51.492.05-
2022/50.5655.225.812.41-11.931.462.1-
2022/40.36-31.73-37.971.85-19.291.212.53-
2022/30.5368.89-21.311.49-12.91.491.73-
2022/20.31-51.12-38.470.96-7.411.571.63-
2022/10.644.5922.910.6422.912.081.24-
2021/120.61-25.13-6.87.3851.952.021.05訂單增加
2021/110.8240.3696.046.7661.192.150.99訂單增加
2021/100.59-21.6971.955.9457.321.871.14訂單增加
2021/90.7538.12293.715.3655.881.990.94訂單增加
2021/80.54-23.0955.74.6141.981.871.0營收成長
2021/70.712.2941.74.0740.331.781.05-
2021/60.6340.13144.813.3740.051.661.13訂單增加
2021/50.45-23.48-7.332.7427.571.711.1-
2021/40.58-13.3967.592.2937.681.771.06訂單回溫
2021/30.6732.0653.881.7129.761.710.98訂單回溫
2021/20.51-2.36-0.311.0317.721.690.99-
2021/10.52-20.6942.980.5242.981.61.04-
2020/120.6657.4815.514.86-14.261.421.23-
2020/110.4223.12-20.234.2-17.60.951.83-
2020/100.3479.27-42.633.78-17.30.881.98-
2020/90.19-45.37-63.43.44-13.521.031.77訂單減少
2020/80.35-30.0-31.543.25-6.041.11.66-
2020/70.594.017.782.9-1.651.231.48-
2020/60.26-46.95-34.522.4-4.91.091.82-
2020/50.4838.38-2.052.150.511.271.56-
2020/40.35-20.48-38.341.671.281.31.52-
2020/30.44-14.44-2.951.3222.061.321.39-
2020/20.5140.0476.140.8840.071.451.26去年2月休假日多(過年)
2020/10.37-35.938.860.378.861.461.25-
2019/120.578.758.785.669.020.0N/A-
2019/110.53-11.45-4.725.099.040.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.942023/10.342022/10.642021/10.522020/10.37
2024/20.552023/20.532022/20.312021/20.512020/20.51
2024/30.712023/30.72022/30.532021/30.672020/30.44
2024/40.662023/40.522022/40.362021/40.582020/40.35
2024/50.82023/50.692022/50.562021/50.452020/50.48
2024/60.612023/60.682022/60.572021/60.632020/60.26
2024/70.662023/70.642022/70.712021/70.72020/70.5
2024/80.622023/80.682022/80.852021/80.542020/80.35
2024/90.822023/91.032022/90.712021/90.752020/90.19
2024/100.622023/100.72022/100.672021/100.592020/100.34
N/AN/A2023/111.082022/111.052021/110.822020/110.42
N/AN/A2023/120.692022/120.712021/120.612020/120.66
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.51%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.08300.0166.67
24Q2 (19)0.02-71.43-33.33
24Q1 (18)0.07-12.5250.0
23Q4 (17)0.08166.67166.67
23Q3 (16)0.030.00.0
23Q2 (15)0.0350.050.0
23Q1 (14)0.02-33.33-50.0
22Q4 (13)0.030.050.0
22Q3 (12)0.0350.00.0
22Q2 (11)0.02-50.0-50.0
22Q1 (10)0.04100.0300.0
21Q4 (9)0.02-33.330
21Q3 (8)0.03-25.050.0
21Q2 (7)0.04300.00
21Q1 (6)0.0100

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