玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/103.17-1.38-33.4530.04-26.049.74N/A-
2024/93.22-4.06-42.9526.79-25.269.790.28-
2024/83.354.09-29.9723.58-21.949.790.28-
2024/73.220.0-28.2620.24-20.399.750.28-
2024/63.22-2.5-24.2717.02-18.629.910.31-
2024/53.3-2.29-19.3213.8-17.039.970.31-
2024/43.382.82-24.1910.51-16.158.170.37-
2024/33.29119.73-14.057.14-11.57.150.41-
2024/21.5-36.62-52.043.86-8.928.840.33本月適逢中國大陸春節假期較長,工作天數相較去年同期為少,故本期銷售相比去年同期減少約52%。
2024/12.36-52.6114.072.36114.0712.20.24去年同期因大陸地區疫情蔓延,生產銷售天數僅7天,故本期銷售相比去年同期增加約114%。
2023/124.982.671.8250.46-1.8414.60.18-
2023/114.851.84.9245.47-2.2215.260.17-
2023/104.77-15.455.2540.62-2.9915.190.17-
2023/95.6417.753.9435.85-3.9914.920.21-
2023/84.796.64-6.530.21-5.3613.530.23-
2023/74.495.552.3725.42-5.1512.840.24-
2023/64.253.87-0.0420.92-6.6912.810.25-
2023/54.09-8.194.9916.64-8.3912.380.26-
2023/44.4616.578.1412.53-12.111.410.28-
2023/33.8322.652.228.07-20.468.050.4去年3月泉州爆發疫情,物流中斷,因此導致去年3月份的營收斷崖式下降。所以使得今年3月營收相比去年同期上升50%以上。
2023/23.12182.98.544.24-44.319.120.35-
2023/11.1-77.45-76.651.1-76.6510.620.3因疫情快速蔓延,1月份提前放假,生產銷售天數僅7天,所以銷售相比去年同期下降76%多。
2022/124.895.79-7.5351.42.7914.050.23-
2022/114.632.13-10.1746.53.9914.580.22-
2022/104.53-16.5-4.0941.875.8115.070.21-
2022/95.425.910.5737.347.1514.930.22-
2022/85.1216.77-1.1531.928.4413.760.24-
2022/74.393.052.826.810.5612.540.26-
2022/64.269.14.4322.4212.2612.280.3-
2022/53.9-5.436.5118.1614.310.540.34-
2022/44.1264.0826.7914.2616.659.510.38-
2022/32.51-12.57-5.6610.1513.1310.120.33-
2022/22.88-39.1620.117.6120.712.890.26-
2022/14.73-10.720.794.7320.7915.170.22-
2021/125.292.7710.650.014.0415.160.23-
2021/115.159.0411.6544.7214.415.270.23-
2021/104.72-12.439.7539.5714.715.30.23-
2021/95.394.16.9134.8515.3814.840.22-
2021/85.1821.442.3829.4416.9213.520.24-
2021/74.274.694.1624.2420.4812.00.27-
2021/64.0711.287.4319.9724.7310.990.36-
2021/53.6612.56-0.1615.8930.289.580.41-
2021/43.2522.0813.7212.2243.848.310.47-
2021/32.6611.319.858.9759.418.970.32去年受新冠肺炎疫情延遲復工影響,致基期較低,今年恢復正常出貨水準
2021/22.39-38.81463.816.3185.4611.090.26去年受新冠肺炎疫情延遲復工影響,致基期較低,今年恢復正常出貨水準
2021/13.91-18.2331.123.9131.1213.310.21-
2020/124.793.755.6543.85-19.1813.70.22-
2020/114.617.182.9439.09-21.3913.960.22-
2020/104.3-14.77.2234.5-23.7414.410.21-
2020/95.04-0.3112.3230.2-26.7614.20.18-
2020/85.0623.568.4525.18-31.4812.950.2-
2020/74.17.97-11.2620.12-37.2711.560.22-
2020/63.793.4-18.3916.01-41.710.320.23-
2020/53.6728.23-32.0412.19-46.548.750.27-
2020/42.8628.65-37.998.5-51.185.510.43新冠肺炎疫情影響中國境內外工業製造生產動能及需求,因需求遞延而較去年全年同期銷售減少,另人民幣匯率較同期疲弱。
2020/32.22423.61-55.465.63-56.045.630.43主係新冠肺炎疫情影響中國境內外工業製造生產動能,中國各地區經銷商於3月逐步復工,故對比去年同期銷售減少。
2020/20.42-85.77-86.433.4-56.477.940.31新冠肺炎疫情影響2月復工進度延後,另因
2020/12.98-34.11-36.172.98-36.1711.990.2-
2019/124.531.09-5.954.26-28.060.0N/A-
2019/114.4811.64-18.7249.72-29.610.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.362023/11.12022/14.732021/13.912020/12.98
2024/21.52023/23.122022/22.882021/22.392020/20.42
2024/33.292023/33.832022/32.512021/32.662020/32.22
2024/43.382023/44.462022/44.122021/43.252020/42.86
2024/53.32023/54.092022/53.92021/53.662020/53.67
2024/63.222023/64.252022/64.262021/64.072020/63.79
2024/73.222023/74.492022/74.392021/74.272020/74.1
2024/83.352023/84.792022/85.122021/85.182020/85.06
2024/93.222023/95.642022/95.422021/95.392020/95.04
2024/103.172023/104.772022/104.532021/104.722020/104.3
N/AN/A2023/114.852022/114.632021/115.152020/114.61
N/AN/A2023/124.982022/124.892021/125.292020/124.79
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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