玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.6-21.87-0.56.39-0.132.05N/A-
2024/90.7610.1229.815.79-0.12.190.96-
2024/80.69-5.775.275.03-3.472.071.01-
2024/70.7414.57-4.874.33-4.742.01.05-
2024/60.643.4515.213.6-4.711.831.16-
2024/50.629.285.252.96-8.161.861.14-
2024/40.57-16.1319.832.34-11.171.671.27-
2024/30.6858.81-20.041.77-17.981.771.22-
2024/20.43-36.0-49.971.09-16.641.661.29-
2024/10.6716.7145.280.6745.281.961.1-
2023/120.57-20.955.657.69-32.221.891.15-
2023/110.7220.485.037.12-34.111.911.14-
2023/100.61.92-13.716.39-36.771.851.18-
2023/90.59-10.68-5.685.8-38.472.021.14-
2023/80.66-14.86-35.865.21-40.81.991.16-
2023/70.7738.77-27.974.55-41.451.921.2-
2023/60.56-5.48-44.193.78-43.611.621.51-
2023/50.5924.41-44.043.22-43.511.911.28-
2023/40.47-44.04-64.12.63-43.392.171.13原料價格下跌加上通膨影響購買力故本月較去年同期衰退64.11%
2023/30.85-0.61-41.822.16-35.172.161.17-
2023/20.8585.85-9.071.31-29.991.851.37-
2023/10.46-15.12-50.960.46-50.961.691.5原料價格下跌又逢春節假期故本月較去年同期衰退50.97%
2022/120.54-21.42-48.1511.34-1.251.921.3-
2022/110.69-1.01-33.6610.83.422.01.24-
2022/100.6911.4-3.0810.127.52.341.06-
2022/90.62-39.26-4.859.428.382.721.11-
2022/81.03-4.3839.78.89.463.10.98去年同期因越南新冠疫情嚴峻影響銷售,今年已陸續恢復
2022/71.077.523.977.776.413.120.97-
2022/61.0-5.2236.726.76.823.370.99-
2022/51.05-20.19-9.655.72.883.830.87-
2022/41.32-9.31-2.694.656.223.710.9-
2022/31.4655.322.733.3310.223.330.88-
2022/20.940.2226.31.8716.842.911.01-
2022/10.93-10.268.680.938.683.010.97-
2021/121.040.5420.4211.4941.792.791.1-
2021/111.0444.6120.1510.4444.352.411.27-
2021/100.729.36-18.219.4147.622.111.45去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/90.66-10.82-12.458.6958.112.421.46去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/80.73-28.8412.58.0469.232.51.41去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/71.0341.3965.357.378.272.931.21去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/60.73-37.3786.646.2780.63.250.82去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/51.17-14.05352.785.5479.833.940.68去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/41.36-4.24206.594.3754.943.510.76去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情嚴峻,營收銳減,今年營收逐步回穩,故變動比率較大。
2021/31.4290.9653.413.0226.763.020.86原料價格上漲售價隨之調升,預期心理帶動買氣,銷量亦隨之增加。
2021/20.74-13.75-6.841.69.882.471.05-
2021/10.86-0.5730.030.8630.032.591.0-
2020/120.860.327.48.1-22.582.60.84-
2020/110.86-1.567.857.24-25.082.490.88-
2020/100.8817.06-2.436.37-28.062.280.96-
2020/90.7514.61-17.545.5-30.952.031.18-
2020/80.654.58-28.554.75-32.671.671.43-
2020/70.6259.6-29.154.1-33.291.271.87-
2020/60.3951.91-50.493.47-33.981.092.54因受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響
2020/50.26-41.8-71.533.08-31.061.621.71因受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響
2020/40.44-52.08-55.642.82-20.792.161.28因受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響
2020/30.9215.9415.062.38-7.262.381.06-
2020/20.820.3926.651.46-17.412.261.12-
2020/10.66-17.87-41.790.66-41.792.271.12-
2019/120.810.74-28.7510.46-10.380.0N/A-
2019/110.8-10.95-23.429.66-8.410.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.672023/10.462022/10.932021/10.862020/10.66
2024/20.432023/20.852022/20.942021/20.742020/20.8
2024/30.682023/30.852022/31.462021/31.422020/30.92
2024/40.572023/40.472022/41.322021/41.362020/40.44
2024/50.622023/50.592022/51.052021/51.172020/50.26
2024/60.642023/60.562022/61.02021/60.732020/60.39
2024/70.742023/70.772022/71.072021/71.032020/70.62
2024/80.692023/80.662022/81.032021/80.732020/80.65
2024/90.762023/90.592022/90.622021/90.662020/90.75
2024/100.62023/100.62022/100.692021/100.722020/100.88
N/AN/A2023/110.722022/110.692021/111.042020/110.86
N/AN/A2023/120.572022/120.542021/121.042020/120.86
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.66%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.0433.330.0
24Q2 (19)0.03-25.0-40.0
24Q1 (18)0.04300.0-33.33
23Q4 (17)0.01-75.0-88.89
23Q3 (16)0.04-20.0-33.33
23Q2 (15)0.05-16.6725.0
23Q1 (14)0.06-33.330.0
22Q4 (13)0.0950.0125.0
22Q3 (12)0.0650.0-33.33
22Q2 (11)0.04-33.330.0
22Q1 (10)0.0650.050.0
21Q4 (9)0.04-55.5633.33
21Q3 (8)0.09125.0200.0
21Q2 (7)0.040.0100.0
21Q1 (6)0.0433.33100.0
20Q4 (5)0.030.00.0
20Q3 (4)0.0350.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.020.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.02-33.330.0
19Q4 (1)0.030.00.0

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