玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/112.92.1624.8726.416.128.12N/A-
2024/102.8418.7919.8523.515.127.88N/A-
2024/92.39-10.040.020.6614.57.320.71-
2024/82.6516.23.1718.2816.717.480.69-
2024/72.28-10.379.8715.6219.377.170.73-
2024/62.558.9914.4113.3421.177.230.62-
2024/52.34-0.24-1.9310.7922.886.880.65-
2024/42.346.4618.828.4632.126.10.74-
2024/32.241.5716.776.1138.046.110.69-
2024/21.55-34.046.53.9153.826.30.67去年同期因清庫存及通膨導致營收大幅下滑
2024/12.36-1.23117.562.36117.567.060.6去年同期因清庫存及通膨導致營收大幅下滑
2023/122.392.8637.6425.129.587.070.65-
2023/112.32-1.9335.2622.737.287.070.65-
2023/102.37-0.8958.9520.414.817.320.63去年同期因清庫存及通膨導致營收大幅下滑
2023/92.39-7.1893.2118.050.347.040.57去年同期因清庫存及通膨導致營收大幅下滑
2023/82.5723.7678.0615.66-6.516.880.58去年同期因清庫存及通膨導致營收大幅下滑
2023/72.08-6.6619.5413.09-14.496.690.6-
2023/62.23-6.5716.3111.01-18.856.580.63-
2023/52.3820.8612.828.78-24.636.240.66-
2023/41.974.62-24.696.4-32.925.320.78-
2023/31.8829.13-31.164.43-36.034.430.89-
2023/21.4634.72-25.872.54-39.214.280.93-
2023/11.08-37.51-51.081.08-51.084.530.87營收下滑5成以上原因:(1)農曆過年在一月(去年在二月) (2)通貨膨脹因素使消費大減,大大影響營收
2022/121.731.08-40.7622.92-22.614.940.75-
2022/111.7215.23-31.5121.19-20.624.440.84-
2022/101.4920.47-28.8819.47-19.54.170.89-
2022/91.24-14.46-52.9517.99-18.614.421.14美國打通膨之急速升息使美元太過強勢,導致全球消費支出急速且大幅度縮減
2022/81.44-16.9-43.2116.75-13.985.10.99-
2022/71.74-9.19-31.7115.31-9.585.760.88-
2022/61.91-9.38-16.0613.57-5.676.650.79-
2022/52.11-19.32-17.0811.65-3.717.470.7-
2022/42.62-4.37-0.269.54-0.157.330.72-
2022/32.7439.0612.486.92-0.16.920.67-
2022/21.97-11.0924.634.18-6.927.110.65-
2022/12.21-24.32-24.032.21-24.037.650.6-
2021/122.9316.869.3829.628.697.520.62-
2021/112.519.66-4.0326.78.627.220.64-
2021/102.09-20.3-18.8824.1910.127.260.64-
2021/92.633.24-4.2722.113.987.720.62-
2021/82.54-0.07-4.819.4716.997.370.65-
2021/72.5511.620.9216.9321.167.370.65-
2021/62.28-10.49-4.6814.3825.617.450.59-
2021/52.55-2.958.4812.133.627.610.58-
2021/42.637.8534.219.5542.426.640.67-
2021/32.4354.0734.136.9345.796.930.65-
2021/21.58-45.835.324.553.07.170.63由於去年一月過年,且目前遠距辦公與教學因疫情關係仍然暢旺所致
2021/12.928.9564.662.9264.668.20.55由於去年一月過年,且目前遠距辦公與教學因疫情關係仍然暢旺所致
2020/122.682.5320.527.2516.027.870.49-
2020/112.611.1542.6624.5815.557.930.49-
2020/102.58-5.9550.3821.9713.08.00.48疫情造成NB暢旺,使Q4起營收不致於衰退
2020/92.742.6734.919.399.397.940.38-
2020/82.675.9337.2716.646.087.590.4-
2020/72.525.4129.9713.971.667.260.42-
2020/62.391.8716.1811.45-2.986.70.53-
2020/52.3520.0515.589.06-7.046.120.58-
2020/41.967.782.526.71-13.04.940.72-
2020/31.8155.44-6.944.75-18.14.750.76-
2020/21.17-34.06-9.162.94-23.755.160.7-
2020/11.77-20.26-31.061.77-31.060.0N/A-
2019/122.2221.38-6.4523.49-11.080.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.362023/11.082022/12.212021/12.922020/11.77
2024/21.552023/21.462022/21.972021/21.582020/21.17
2024/32.22023/31.882022/32.742021/32.432020/31.81
2024/42.342023/41.972022/42.622021/42.632020/41.96
2024/52.342023/52.382022/52.112021/52.552020/52.35
2024/62.552023/62.232022/61.912021/62.282020/62.39
2024/72.282023/72.082022/71.742021/72.552020/72.52
2024/82.652023/82.572022/81.442021/82.542020/82.67
2024/92.392023/92.392022/91.242021/92.632020/92.74
2024/102.842023/102.372022/101.492021/102.092020/102.58
2024/112.92023/112.322022/111.722021/112.52020/112.61
N/AN/A2023/122.392022/121.732021/122.932020/122.68
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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