玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.28-4.7110.042.82.830.89N/A-
2024/90.29-6.8513.562.522.090.881.48-
2024/80.3218.23-12.182.220.740.851.54-
2024/70.272.08-20.491.93.260.751.72-
2024/60.2616.33-13.931.648.560.821.65-
2024/50.23-32.38-13.331.3814.240.831.63-
2024/40.3324.2158.611.1521.830.851.59去年4月受客戶庫存調節,銷量下滑,基期較低,造成本月增加幅度較大
2024/30.277.31-10.290.8211.320.821.84-
2024/20.25-16.57-13.650.5526.160.851.77-
2024/10.3-0.33105.030.3105.030.921.64因去年工作天數少,因此今年相較之下營收大幅增加。
2023/120.3-5.020.793.34-34.510.871.95-
2023/110.3224.0544.143.03-37.350.832.05-
2023/100.25-1.6765.582.72-41.210.871.94去年10月受客戶庫存調節,銷量下滑,基期較低,造成本月增加幅度較大
2023/90.26-27.9714.72.46-44.890.961.92-
2023/80.367.0423.552.2-48.071.01.83-
2023/70.3410.51-30.191.84-53.340.92.03客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2023/60.317.14-42.271.51-56.560.772.75客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2023/50.2623.74-52.961.2-59.120.772.77客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2023/40.21-29.74-66.640.94-60.540.82.67客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2023/30.33.29-49.430.73-58.360.732.7客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2023/20.2998.08-50.790.44-62.860.682.89客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2023/10.15-41.28-75.00.15-75.00.613.22因1月工作天數少,加上客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退。
2022/120.2513.34-52.775.09-12.150.623.38因客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退
2022/110.2242.51-59.854.84-8.090.63.5因客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退
2022/100.15-31.88-69.414.62-2.10.673.13因客戶調節庫存,延後出貨時間,造成出貨較去年同期大幅衰退
2022/90.23-22.41-47.414.475.921.01.98-
2022/80.29-39.52-44.624.2411.971.31.52-
2022/70.48-8.61-6.813.9521.091.561.27-
2022/60.53-4.5410.253.4726.331.711.04-
2022/50.55-12.2514.222.9429.721.771.0-
2022/40.636.5124.862.3933.921.810.98-
2022/30.590.5119.741.7637.481.760.92-
2022/20.590.6171.771.1748.571.70.95產業景氣復甦,客戶需求增加
2022/10.5810.9430.790.5830.791.660.98-
2021/120.53-3.6337.835.830.271.580.8-
2021/110.558.5418.445.2729.561.480.85-
2021/100.517.1223.314.7230.981.460.86-
2021/90.43-18.296.794.2231.961.470.73-
2021/80.531.7632.073.7935.591.520.7-
2021/70.528.1237.143.2636.171.480.72-
2021/60.48-1.130.832.7535.991.470.68-
2021/50.48-4.0843.12.2737.131.480.67-
2021/40.52.1469.011.7935.61.340.74今年較去年同期客戶需求回溫
2021/30.4944.1818.191.2825.821.280.82-
2021/20.34-23.3827.740.7931.131.170.9-
2021/10.4516.9133.840.4533.841.290.81-
2020/120.38-17.190.734.45-14.681.250.85-
2020/110.4613.018.934.07-15.891.270.83-
2020/100.411.43-28.463.61-18.271.210.88-
2020/90.41.04-9.923.2-16.761.180.76-
2020/80.45.66-19.422.8-17.651.140.79-
2020/70.383.14-28.112.4-17.351.080.83-
2020/60.378.16-32.472.02-14.981.01.13-
2020/50.3413.28-10.241.66-9.821.051.07-
2020/40.3-28.57-25.051.32-9.720.981.15-
2020/30.4255.841.941.02-3.971.021.14-
2020/20.27-19.720.960.6-7.690.981.18-
2020/10.33-12.01-13.630.33-13.631.141.02-
2019/120.38-10.4433.025.22-5.710.0N/A-
2019/110.42-25.786.324.84-7.820.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.32023/10.152022/10.582021/10.452020/10.33
2024/20.252023/20.292022/20.592021/20.342020/20.27
2024/30.272023/30.32022/30.592021/30.492020/30.42
2024/40.332023/40.212022/40.632021/40.52020/40.3
2024/50.232023/50.262022/50.552021/50.482020/50.34
2024/60.262023/60.32022/60.532021/60.482020/60.37
2024/70.272023/70.342022/70.482021/70.522020/70.38
2024/80.322023/80.362022/80.292021/80.532020/80.4
2024/90.292023/90.262022/90.232021/90.432020/90.4
2024/100.282023/100.252022/100.152021/100.52020/100.41
N/AN/A2023/110.322022/110.222021/110.552020/110.46
N/AN/A2023/120.32022/120.252021/120.532020/120.38
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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