玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.32-42.5675.6734.27104.9116.69N/A本期及累計營收增加主要係記憶體模組訂單交貨所致
2024/97.5254.89406.7329.95109.9518.010.25本期及累計營收增加主要係記憶體模組訂單交貨所致
2024/84.85-13.93170.6722.4375.512.040.37本期及累計營收增加主要係記憶體模組訂單交貨所致
2024/75.64263.91301.3417.5859.978.930.5本期及累計營收增加主要係記憶體模組訂單交貨所致
2024/61.55-10.89-19.1811.9424.584.622.04-
2024/51.7430.98-37.7310.3935.534.811.96-
2024/41.33-23.9922.298.6577.536.691.41累計營收較去年同期增加主要係伺服器營收增加所致
2024/31.75-51.7231.187.3293.367.320.47累計營收較去年同期增加主要係伺服器訂單於本季交貨所致
2024/23.6284.82171.265.58127.087.040.49本月及累計營收較去年同期增加主要係伺服器訂單於本月交貨所致
2024/11.9634.1974.541.9674.544.970.7本月營收較去年同期增加主要係記憶體產品銷售增加
2023/121.46-6.2113.8619.74-36.755.470.28-
2023/111.56-36.7-34.9118.28-38.925.50.28-
2023/102.4665.6770.3516.72-39.275.730.27本月營收較去年同期增加主要係記憶體產品銷售增加所致
2023/91.48-17.26-18.014.27-45.334.680.61-
2023/81.7927.61-24.3412.78-47.365.120.56-
2023/71.41-26.72-7.6710.99-49.856.120.46-
2023/61.92-31.34-16.319.58-53.05.80.47累計營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2023/52.79157.25-28.277.67-57.655.210.52累計營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2023/41.09-18.47-65.24.87-65.73.750.73本月及累計營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2023/31.33-0.17-67.223.79-65.843.790.29本月及累計營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2023/21.3318.92-52.262.46-65.043.740.29本月營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2023/11.12-12.45-73.471.12-73.474.790.23本月營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2022/121.28-46.39-61.8631.217.025.110.38本月營收較去年同期減少主要係記憶體及板卡產品市況不佳所致
2022/112.3965.65-32.8629.9316.05.640.34-
2022/101.44-20.25-37.6127.5423.825.620.34-
2022/91.81-23.66-24.2726.130.955.70.48-
2022/82.3755.7522.3724.2938.476.180.44-
2022/71.52-33.57-19.6721.9240.477.710.35-
2022/62.29-41.15-3.0620.3948.799.310.52-
2022/53.8924.79122.7818.159.5911.080.43本月及累計營收增加主要係記憶體產品銷售增加
2022/43.12-23.2266.1214.2148.089.980.48本月記憶體產品及板卡銷售業績較去年同期成長
2022/34.0645.4136.8811.0943.6911.090.78本月板卡及記憶體產品因客戶備貨營收增加
2022/22.79-33.9128.057.0217.0510.380.83-
2022/14.2325.8810.774.2310.7711.150.77-
2021/123.36-5.62-2.1329.1633.399.230.71-
2021/113.5653.93124.5825.840.08.260.79本月記憶體產品及板卡銷售業績成長
2021/102.31-3.1999.9222.2432.046.640.98本月板卡及記憶體產品較去年同期營收增加
2021/92.3923.35128.3419.9327.046.221.06本月板卡及記憶體產品因客戶備貨營收增加
2021/81.942.2451.617.5419.86.21.06本月營收增加主要來自板卡及記憶體產品銷售增加
2021/71.89-19.8439.9715.616.756.011.1-
2021/62.3635.2378.8813.7114.145.990.51本月營收增加主要來自板卡及記憶體產品銷售增加
2021/51.75-6.949.611.346.135.340.58-
2021/41.889.4826.279.595.535.780.53-
2021/31.72-21.4-50.457.721.477.720.32本月記憶體產品因產品漲價訂單延遲致營收減少
2021/22.18-42.83-18.166.044.879.430.26-
2021/13.8211.21158.863.82158.868.840.28較去年同期增加主要係記憶體及板卡產品營收成長
2020/123.43116.56171.4521.8617.666.180.48當月營收較去年增加係記憶體及板卡營收增加
2020/111.5937.0344.7518.436.433.790.78-
2020/101.1610.56-17.816.843.843.480.85-
2020/91.05-18.1-50.9815.695.93.680.66本月記憶體產品因客戶需求減少致營收減少
2020/81.28-5.59-54.0714.6415.473.950.61本月記憶體產品因客戶需求減少致營收減少
2020/71.352.43-28.3613.3635.034.270.56-
2020/61.32-17.1414.7612.0149.994.40.44-
2020/51.597.2157.5910.6955.96.540.29營收較去年增加係記憶體營收增加
2020/41.49-57.03-11.789.0955.617.620.25累計營收較去年增加係記憶體及板卡營收增加
2020/33.4629.81150.687.682.957.60.32當月及累計營收較去年增加係記憶體營收增加
2020/22.6780.8174.744.1449.255.410.45本月板卡及記憶體產品因客戶備貨營收增加
2020/11.4816.6218.091.4818.093.840.63-
2019/121.2615.4839.0618.58-51.80.0N/A累計營收較去年減少係記憶體及板卡營收下降
2019/111.1-22.19-63.1517.31-53.990.0N/A當月及累計營收較去年減少係記憶體及板卡營收下降
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.962023/11.122022/14.232021/13.822020/11.48
2024/23.622023/21.332022/22.792021/22.182020/22.67
2024/31.752023/31.332022/34.062021/31.722020/33.46
2024/41.332023/41.092022/43.122021/41.882020/41.49
2024/51.742023/52.792022/53.892021/51.752020/51.59
2024/61.552023/61.922022/62.292021/62.362020/61.32
2024/75.642023/71.412022/71.522021/71.892020/71.35
2024/84.852023/81.792022/82.372021/81.942020/81.28
2024/97.522023/91.482022/91.812021/92.392020/91.05
2024/104.322023/102.462022/101.442021/102.312020/101.16
N/AN/A2023/111.562022/112.392021/113.562020/111.59
N/AN/A2023/121.462022/121.282021/123.362020/123.43
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 57.35%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.7914.74-20.44
24Q2 (19)1.56-13.33-3.11
24Q1 (18)1.8-14.691185.71
23Q4 (17)2.11-6.2236.13
23Q3 (16)2.2539.75216.9
23Q2 (15)1.611050.0159.68
23Q1 (14)0.14-90.97-79.71
22Q4 (13)1.55118.31244.44
22Q3 (12)0.7114.520
22Q2 (11)0.62-10.140
22Q1 (10)0.6953.330
21Q4 (9)0.450350.0

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