玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.61-24.2320.057.62-10.092.25N/A-
2024/100.81-2.9999.417.01-12.012.44N/A末端美國客戶訂單增加所致。
2024/90.833.4278.036.2-17.982.560.73末端美國客戶訂單增加所致。
2024/80.8-12.9819.975.37-24.312.340.8-
2024/70.9252.2780.464.56-28.932.150.87銅價趨緩, 美國客戶去庫存化問題已解決
2024/60.61-2.06-22.113.64-38.421.861.0-
2024/50.62-2.76-33.373.03-40.891.960.95-
2024/40.64-9.57-44.622.41-42.561.681.11-
2024/30.7109.15-55.571.77-41.781.770.92本月營收較去年同期減少55.57%,係因美國終端客戶去庫存化影響,訂單客戶通知交貨時程延遲所致。
2024/20.34-53.96-62.261.07-26.811.621.01係因二月春節假期出貨天數較少及美國終端客戶去庫存化影響,訂單客戶通知交貨時程延遲出貨減少所致。
2024/10.7333.6828.920.7328.921.790.91-
2023/120.557.54-51.979.02-25.111.461.27本月營收較去年同期減少51.97%,係因美國終端客戶去庫存化影響,訂單客戶通知交貨時程延遲及大陸景氣低迷佈線訂單出貨減少所致。
2023/110.5125.84-61.078.47-22.31.381.34本月營收較去年同期減少61.08%,係因美國終端客戶去庫存化影響,訂單客戶通知交貨時程延遲及大陸景氣低迷佈線訂單出貨減少所致。
2023/100.4-13.39-61.657.96-17.021.541.2本月營收較去年同期減少61.65%,係因美國終端客戶去庫存化影響,訂單客戶通知交貨時程延遲及大陸景氣低迷佈線訂單出貨減少所致。
2023/90.47-30.3-62.57.56-11.51.651.21本月營收較去年同期減少62.50%,係因美國終端客戶去庫存化影響,訂單客戶通知交貨時程延遲及大陸景氣低迷佈線訂單出貨減少所致。
2023/80.6730.89-33.487.09-2.791.961.01-
2023/70.51-34.27-49.736.422.122.220.9本月營收較去年同期減少49.74%,係因美國終端客戶去庫存化,訂單客戶通知暫時停止出貨所致。
2023/60.78-16.22-15.725.9112.152.860.71-
2023/50.93-19.19-13.385.1318.093.670.55-
2023/41.15-27.447.574.228.433.630.56-
2023/31.5977.6578.663.0538.573.050.71因本期訂單較去年同期需求增加,出口營收大幅成長所致
2023/20.8957.2653.851.4611.422.60.83因去年二月春節假期出貨天數較少所致
2023/10.57-50.19-22.280.57-22.283.020.72-
2022/121.14-12.8418.3412.052.363.50.56-
2022/111.3123.9818.3910.90.943.610.54-
2022/101.06-15.3112.479.6-1.043.310.59-
2022/91.2523.627.188.54-2.493.270.66-
2022/81.01-1.083.167.3-3.972.950.74-
2022/71.0210.187.926.29-5.023.020.72-
2022/60.92-13.89-14.255.27-7.183.070.83-
2022/51.070.361.514.34-5.523.030.84-
2022/41.0720.55.323.27-7.622.541.01-
2022/30.8952.98-29.542.2-12.832.21.17-
2022/20.58-20.5539.421.313.832.271.13-
2022/10.73-24.15-13.660.73-13.662.80.92-
2021/120.96-12.81-2.511.7711.463.010.78-
2021/111.1117.780.8710.812.913.210.73-
2021/100.94-19.36.619.714.463.080.76-
2021/91.1618.9921.648.7615.373.080.74-
2021/80.983.4710.587.614.473.00.76-
2021/70.94-12.455.216.6215.073.080.74-
2021/61.081.9334.995.6816.893.150.72-
2021/51.064.1316.974.613.323.330.68-
2021/41.02-19.39-12.923.5412.282.690.84-
2021/31.26202.7326.732.5227.12.520.73-
2021/20.42-50.89.231.2627.462.250.81-
2021/10.85-14.3538.870.8538.872.930.62-
2020/120.99-9.789.0410.56-14.742.960.56-
2020/111.124.48-5.639.57-16.622.930.57-
2020/100.88-7.92-12.648.47-17.862.720.61-
2020/90.968.1615.847.59-18.422.740.57-
2020/80.88-1.54-13.66.64-21.762.580.6-
2020/70.912.32-18.55.75-22.872.60.6-
2020/60.8-11.67-20.334.86-23.632.870.51-
2020/50.9-22.48-25.564.06-24.253.070.48-
2020/41.1717.33-2.713.15-23.872.540.58-
2020/30.99160.92-26.261.99-32.51.990.85-
2020/20.38-37.46-22.670.99-37.781.90.89-
2020/10.61-32.74-44.560.61-44.560.0N/A-
2019/120.91-21.93-9.0412.38-19.510.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.732023/10.572022/10.732021/10.852020/10.61
2024/20.342023/20.892022/20.582021/20.422020/20.38
2024/30.72023/31.592022/30.892021/31.262020/30.99
2024/40.642023/41.152022/41.072021/41.022020/41.17
2024/50.622023/50.932022/51.072021/51.062020/50.9
2024/60.612023/60.782022/60.922021/61.082020/60.8
2024/70.922023/70.512022/71.022021/70.942020/70.9
2024/80.82023/80.672022/81.012021/80.982020/80.88
2024/90.832023/90.472022/91.252021/91.162020/90.96
2024/100.812023/100.42022/101.062021/100.942020/100.88
2024/110.612023/110.512022/111.312021/111.112020/111.1
N/AN/A2023/120.552022/121.142021/120.962020/120.99
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 9.94%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.91-21.55-42.77
24Q2 (19)1.16-9.38-30.54
24Q1 (18)1.28-13.5112700.0
23Q4 (17)1.48-6.924833.33
23Q3 (16)1.59-4.790
23Q2 (15)1.6716600.00
23Q1 (14)0.01-66.670
22Q4 (13)0.0300

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