玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1118.56-14.88-6.45216.5641.968.13N/A-
2024/1021.81-21.4545.96198.049.1278.44N/A-
2024/927.76-3.8439.05176.1949.5289.568.03-
2024/828.87-12.3189.5148.4351.6677.49.3本月(年累計)營收較去年同期增加,主要係交屋量較去年同期增加所致。
2024/732.93111.13127.63119.5644.6868.2210.55本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係交屋量較去年同期增加所致
2024/615.6-20.83140.586.6327.0853.9413.0本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係交屋量較去年同期增加所致
2024/519.75.642191.7271.0415.1665.9610.63本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係新成屋完工,交屋量較去年同期增加所致
2024/418.65-32.47567.6151.34-15.5949.5314.16本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係交屋量較去年同期增加所致
2024/327.62746.544.6232.69-43.6632.6920.88-
2024/23.2680.2-80.745.07-86.9770.899.63本月營收較去年同期下滑,主要係已完工可交屋成屋量減少所致
2024/11.81-97.24-91.761.81-91.7687.477.8本月營收較去年同期下滑主要係已完工可交屋成屋量減少所致。
2023/1265.82231.73176.58218.43-17.82100.66.68本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係認列出售台中土地案
2023/1119.8432.81-16.49152.61-36.9454.7512.27-
2023/1014.94-25.17-55.06132.77-39.1650.1413.39本月成屋待售案量較去年同期減少
2023/919.9731.04-39.57117.83-36.3149.6714.04-
2023/815.245.32-15.2497.87-35.636.1919.27-
2023/714.46123.06-11.7482.63-38.3321.8131.97-
2023/66.48654.34-61.8668.17-42.0410.1466.8本月交屋量減少致營收較去年同期低
2023/50.86-69.22-94.1361.68-38.6822.7529.77本月交屋量減少致營收較去年同期低
2023/42.79-85.37-84.4460.82-29.2338.8317.44本月可交屋案量較去年同期減少,致營收較低
2023/319.0912.67-5.2758.03-14.6558.0310.96-
2023/216.95-22.92-17.8638.94-18.662.7310.14-
2023/121.99-7.59-19.1621.99-19.1669.559.15-
2022/1223.80.15-49.06265.82-19.7880.88.04-
2022/1123.76-28.52-49.2242.02-14.9790.047.22-
2022/1033.240.6-40.89218.26-8.2584.267.71-
2022/933.0483.8-15.39185.021.8567.419.77-
2022/817.989.68-38.04151.986.5851.3712.82-
2022/716.39-3.62-29.78134.017.9848.0513.7-
2022/617.0116.07-3.99117.6130.3449.6213.46-
2022/514.65-18.41-12.21100.638.7352.7712.66-
2022/417.96-10.9111.5785.9553.9658.7511.37因本年交屋較去年增加,致本年累計營收較去年增加
2022/320.16-2.34.3967.9971.1467.999.45因本年交屋較去年增加,致本年累計營收較去年增加
2022/220.63-24.1493.747.84134.2694.566.79因1-2月交屋較去年增加,致本年累計營收較去年增加
2022/127.2-41.77178.527.2178.5120.75.32因本月交屋較去年同期增加,致本月營收較去年增加
2021/1246.72-0.153.89331.3823.43149.744.12本月因交屋較去年增加,致本月營收較去年增加
2021/1146.77-16.846.69284.6619.55142.074.34-
2021/1056.2444.01136.61237.8922.45124.324.97本⽉因交屋較去年增加,致營收較去年同期增加
2021/939.0634.5994.0181.646.5491.427.38本⽉因交屋較去年增加,致營收較去年同期增加
2021/829.0224.3111.79142.59-5.1670.079.62-
2021/723.3431.774.42113.57-8.757.7511.68-
2021/617.716.1332.290.23-11.5850.513.13-
2021/516.693.6838.3672.52-18.252.112.73-
2021/416.1-16.64-23.3455.83-27.146.0614.4-
2021/319.3181.28114.8239.73-28.5339.7315.76本月因成屋銷售提升交屋較去年增加,致營收較去年同期增加
2021/210.659.060.020.42-56.1850.7812.33去年累計營收因售地收入入帳,致較本年累計營收高
2021/19.77-67.82-72.839.77-72.8383.977.46去年同期因售地收入入帳,致營收增加,本期無
2020/1230.36-30.7417.49268.4629.8697.976.2-
2020/1143.8484.42146.9238.131.6287.746.92本月因認列售地收入,致本月營業收入較去年同期增加
2020/1023.7718.0844.0194.2619.0769.868.69-
2020/920.13-22.4441.97170.4916.2768.449.41-
2020/825.9616.1229.24150.3613.5261.7110.44-
2020/722.3566.82-1.71124.410.7147.8113.47-
2020/613.411.07-4.88102.0513.8646.4613.35-
2020/512.06-42.5591.4788.6517.3542.0514.75本月因過戶交屋較去年多,致營收較去年同期增加
2020/421.0133.6169.0576.5910.6140.6415.26本月因過戶交屋較去年多,致營收較去年同期增加
2020/38.99-15.61-78.3255.59-9.5155.5910.16去年同期因售地收入入帳,致去年同期營收較本月增加
2020/210.65-70.3633.3846.6133.3872.447.8上月因售地收入入帳,致本年累計營收較去年增加
2020/135.9539.12200.0335.95200.030.0N/A本月因售地收入入帳,致營收較去年增加
2019/1225.8445.53-35.48206.73-14.740.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.812023/121.992022/127.22021/19.772020/135.95
2024/23.262023/216.952022/220.632021/210.652020/210.65
2024/327.622023/319.092022/320.162021/319.312020/38.99
2024/418.652023/42.792022/417.962021/416.12020/421.0
2024/519.72023/50.862022/514.652021/516.692020/512.06
2024/615.62023/66.482022/617.012021/617.712020/613.4
2024/732.932023/714.462022/716.392021/723.342020/722.35
2024/828.872023/815.242022/817.982021/829.022020/825.96
2024/927.762023/919.972022/933.042021/939.062020/920.13
2024/1021.812023/1014.942022/1033.242021/1056.242020/1023.77
2024/1118.562023/1119.842022/1123.762021/1146.772020/1143.84
N/AN/A2023/1265.822022/1223.82021/1246.722020/1230.36
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 151.52%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)118.430.8218.41
24Q2 (19)117.4716.3626.57
24Q1 (18)100.9516.0934.47
23Q4 (17)86.96-13.061.36
23Q3 (16)100.027.77-0.88
23Q2 (15)92.8123.63-6.86
23Q1 (14)75.07-12.5-20.88
22Q4 (13)85.79-14.98-9.55
22Q3 (12)100.911.26-9.71
22Q2 (11)99.655.03-1.33
22Q1 (10)94.880.035.2
21Q4 (9)94.85-15.1315.9
21Q3 (8)111.7610.6632.91
21Q2 (7)100.9911.9726.22
21Q1 (6)90.1910.226.14
20Q4 (5)81.84-2.6820.32
20Q3 (4)84.095.10.0
20Q2 (3)80.0111.90.0
20Q1 (2)71.55.120.0
19Q4 (1)68.020.00.0

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