玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.3542.922.2810.37-11.013.33N/A-
2024/90.95-8.63-2.879.02-14.53.311.82-
2024/81.03-21.9511.628.07-15.683.221.86-
2024/71.3354.458.047.04-18.613.281.83大型專案挹注營收
2024/60.86-21.53-18.375.71-26.842.842.09-
2024/51.0922.9228.954.86-28.163.141.89-
2024/40.89-22.68-28.443.76-36.363.031.96-
2024/31.1516.89-49.792.87-38.472.871.84-
2024/20.9833.97-24.111.72-27.532.582.05-
2024/10.74-14.64-31.660.74-31.662.681.97-
2023/120.86-20.2-29.1113.68.073.051.73-
2023/111.08-2.29-22.6312.7312.053.161.67-
2023/101.113.49-7.3711.6516.93.01.75-
2023/90.975.0-7.1510.5520.22.741.8-
2023/80.9310.59.789.5823.912.821.75-
2023/70.84-20.25-22.728.6525.652.741.8-
2023/61.0523.95-5.777.8134.73.141.42-
2023/50.85-31.79-24.276.7644.354.391.02-
2023/41.24-45.7446.645.9165.954.830.92大型專案挹注營收
2023/32.2976.67108.04.6771.994.671.06大型專案挹注營收
2023/21.320.6459.572.3747.343.591.38大型專案挹注營收
2023/11.08-11.4634.881.0834.883.691.35-
2022/121.22-12.90.4612.58-11.343.81.47-
2022/111.416.97-5.9911.36-12.443.641.54-
2022/101.1913.77-15.049.97-13.273.091.82-
2022/91.0524.15-19.488.78-13.022.982.09-
2022/80.84-22.21-28.757.73-12.063.052.05-
2022/71.09-2.762.926.88-9.463.321.88-
2022/61.12-0.38-8.735.8-11.463.091.98-
2022/51.1232.09-10.164.68-12.083.071.99-
2022/40.85-23.04-2.563.56-12.672.762.21-
2022/31.135.54-9.432.71-15.412.712.25-
2022/20.811.97-23.141.61-19.072.822.16-
2022/10.8-34.05-14.470.8-14.473.491.75-
2021/121.21-18.510.9114.1937.654.11.4-
2021/111.485.7137.8812.9840.814.191.37-
2021/101.47.8241.8311.541.23.891.47-
2021/91.39.8619.7610.0941.113.541.8-
2021/81.1912.3763.798.7944.943.461.85今年有大型專案挹注營收,且去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情影響。
2021/71.05-13.77-10.317.642.383.531.81-
2021/61.22-1.9381.36.5557.263.341.51去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情影響,全球各地封城等因素造成營收下滑
2021/51.2543.26132.015.3352.623.341.52去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情影響全球各地封城等因素營收下滑
2021/40.87-28.4621.04.0838.163.151.61-
2021/31.2215.0270.73.2143.693.211.43去年同期因新冠肺炎疫情影響全球各地封城等因素營收下滑。
2021/21.0613.4718.771.9931.013.081.49-
2021/10.93-14.4848.360.9348.363.11.48-
2020/121.091.3-12.3710.31-19.93.161.32-
2020/111.088.7410.799.22-20.73.151.32-
2020/100.99-8.95-7.28.14-23.572.81.49-
2020/91.0950.2513.447.15-25.42.991.41-
2020/80.72-38.46-35.86.06-29.712.571.64-
2020/71.1874.29-4.015.34-28.82.391.76-
2020/60.6725.48-36.334.16-33.641.932.47-
2020/50.54-25.28-64.023.49-33.091.972.43受疫情影響,主要國家封城及部份區域無法出貨所致。
2020/40.720.91-18.612.95-20.662.322.06-
2020/30.71-19.97-38.472.23-21.32.231.93-
2020/20.8941.7435.21.52-9.442.761.56-
2020/10.63-49.49-38.310.63-38.312.841.52-
2019/121.2428.0815.4712.87-17.930.0N/A-
2019/110.97-8.92-57.611.62-20.40.0N/A去年同期有泰國郵局大型專案出貨
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.742023/11.082022/10.82021/10.932020/10.63
2024/20.982023/21.32022/20.812021/21.062020/20.89
2024/31.152023/32.292022/31.12021/31.222020/30.71
2024/40.892023/41.242022/40.852021/40.872020/40.72
2024/51.092023/50.852022/51.122021/51.252020/50.54
2024/60.862023/61.052022/61.122021/61.222020/60.67
2024/71.332023/70.842022/71.092021/71.052020/71.18
2024/81.032023/80.932022/80.842021/81.192020/80.72
2024/90.952023/90.972022/91.052021/91.32020/91.09
2024/101.352023/101.12022/101.192021/101.42020/100.99
N/AN/A2023/111.082022/111.42021/111.482020/111.08
N/AN/A2023/120.862022/121.222021/121.212020/121.09
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 8.61%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.5911.3225.53
24Q2 (19)0.533.9226.19
24Q1 (18)0.516.2527.5
23Q4 (17)0.482.139.09
23Q3 (16)0.4711.923.68
23Q2 (15)0.425.035.48
23Q1 (14)0.4-9.09100.0
22Q4 (13)0.4415.79131.58
22Q3 (12)0.3822.5890.0
22Q2 (11)0.3155.0181.82
22Q1 (10)0.25.2625.0
21Q4 (9)0.19-5.046.15
21Q3 (8)0.281.82233.33
21Q2 (7)0.11-31.250
21Q1 (6)0.1623.0877.78
20Q4 (5)0.13116.67160.0
20Q3 (4)0.0600.0

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