玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.07-33.29104.839.324.8615.28N/A因本月較去年同期有較多案件驗收,故營業額較高
2024/96.119.7-8.3335.25-0.7313.681.54-
2024/85.1106.015.1729.141.0210.422.02-
2024/72.48-12.82-26.8524.04-1.549.662.18-
2024/62.84-34.579.8521.572.5212.531.38-
2024/54.34-18.8495.8218.731.4913.451.29本月較去年同期營收增加,係因有較多案件交貨或驗收完成
2024/45.3542.38115.1414.39-11.3711.441.51因本月較去年同期有較多案件驗收,故營業額較高
2024/33.7661.06-10.639.04-34.259.041.62-
2024/22.33-20.93-69.235.28-44.6616.290.9因去年同期有較大金額之成交案驗收,故較今年之單月營業額為高
2024/12.95-73.1950.082.9550.0817.980.81因本年度比去年同期較多案件驗收,故營收略高
2023/1211.0173.32-21.4752.53-13.8117.020.64-
2023/114.03102.5-25.5641.52-11.5212.670.86-
2023/101.99-70.14-54.5537.5-9.6913.080.84本月份因部分案件出貨或驗收進度較為延遲,故合併營收較去年同期減少
2023/96.6650.4-16.3335.51-4.4114.470.78-
2023/84.4330.82-23.2428.85-1.1610.41.09-
2023/73.3830.92-6.1424.424.278.191.39-
2023/62.5916.62-31.1321.046.177.291.87-
2023/52.22-10.84-32.218.4514.898.911.53-
2023/42.49-40.8512.9516.2326.9314.270.96-
2023/34.2-44.54-22.3213.7529.8413.750.9-
2023/27.58285.64125.69.5584.3623.560.53因本月份較多案件交貨及驗收完成,故造成本月及累計營收增加較多
2023/11.97-85.978.131.978.1321.390.58-
2022/1214.01159.09129.1160.94-1.5823.80.49主因本年度有較大案件於年底完工驗收,故12月營收較上期增加
2022/115.4123.628.1946.93-15.9117.740.66-
2022/104.37-45.031.9341.52-18.2818.10.64-
2022/97.9637.97-23.2437.15-20.1417.331.06-
2022/85.7759.96-56.8829.19-19.2513.131.4主係去年同期有較大金額之案件如聯發科案交貨與驗收,故營收較本年度增加
2022/73.61-3.9233.2823.422.8510.631.73-
2022/63.7514.82.9319.81-1.259.222.09-
2022/53.2748.54107.7516.06-2.1810.881.77本月有較多案件交貨及驗收完成,故營業額較去年同期增加
2022/42.2-59.32-57.5312.79-13.8310.971.76去年同期因有較大金額的案件如中華電信與聯發科等完工驗收,故去年比今年合併營收金額較大
2022/35.4161.0654.9710.599.610.591.73本月份有較多成交單完工驗收結案,故認列較多收入
2022/23.3684.8516.215.18-16.0711.291.62-
2022/11.82-70.28-44.551.82-44.5512.931.42-
2021/126.1222.35-38.5761.9338.1515.411.2-
2021/115.016.4752.3855.8160.0719.660.94本公司第四季向來為完工驗收的旺季,故本月有較多的案件完工驗收認列收入
2021/104.29-58.6120.7850.8160.8728.040.66母公司本月交貨與驗收的案件較多,且大陸華寬承作之璽達案於本月驗收結案
2021/910.37-22.5266.5246.5265.9526.460.72本期因與某客戶第二批交貨金額較大,且有在建工程於本月完工驗收,故導致本期與累計合併營收較上期金額超過50%
2021/813.38394.52366.3536.1543.4419.730.97本期因與聯發科第一批交貨金額較大,故導致合併營收較上期金額超過50%
2021/72.71-25.8-39.1722.771.957.932.42-
2021/63.65131.724.1520.0612.1810.41.74-
2021/51.57-69.63-40.8616.429.8310.251.77-
2021/45.1848.4550.9214.8420.8111.571.57本月有較多案件交貨完成及完工驗收,故營收較高
2021/33.4920.775.439.669.139.661.76-
2021/22.89-11.8-28.086.1711.3516.131.05-
2021/13.28-67.07115.653.28115.6516.521.03本年度較多案件交貨及驗收,故較去年同期營收較高
2020/129.96203.55-5.8844.82-1.0116.790.87-
2020/113.28-7.68-38.6334.870.479.661.52-
2020/103.5525.5915.1331.597.599.251.58-
2020/92.83-1.39-40.5928.036.710.151.54-
2020/82.87-35.5-30.3325.217.1710.251.52-
2020/74.4551.4481.7622.3328.4310.051.55因本月份較多成交單完工或驗收結案,故導致營收較高
2020/62.9410.3559.3417.8919.699.031.49本月份因有較大金額之案件驗收完成,故營業收入較上期增加
2020/52.66-22.534.7214.9514.119.411.43-
2020/43.433.73.6612.2910.4510.771.25-
2020/33.31-17.61-7.788.8513.348.851.26-
2020/24.02164.4561.775.5431.3316.120.69本月份較上月份增加較多案件可認列收入,故造成營收增加
2020/11.52-85.63-12.311.52-12.3117.450.64-
2019/1210.5897.9117.2945.284.260.0N/A-
2019/115.3573.2110.6634.70.850.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.952023/11.972022/11.822021/13.282020/11.52
2024/22.332023/27.582022/23.362021/22.892020/24.02
2024/33.762023/34.22022/35.412021/33.492020/33.31
2024/45.352023/42.492022/42.22021/45.182020/43.43
2024/54.342023/52.222022/53.272021/51.572020/52.66
2024/62.842023/62.592022/63.752021/63.652020/62.94
2024/72.482023/73.382022/73.612021/72.712020/74.45
2024/85.12023/84.432022/85.772021/813.382020/82.87
2024/96.12023/96.662022/97.962021/910.372020/92.83
2024/104.072023/101.992022/104.372021/104.292020/103.55
N/AN/A2023/114.032022/115.412021/115.02020/113.28
N/AN/A2023/1211.02022/1214.012021/126.122020/129.96
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 57.5%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)8.119.455.05
24Q2 (19)7.4114.88-27.99
24Q1 (18)6.45-15.02-36.64
23Q4 (17)7.59-1.68-15.95
23Q3 (16)7.72-24.98-34.3
23Q2 (15)10.291.08-26.24
23Q1 (14)10.1812.74-26.82
22Q4 (13)9.03-23.15-36.05
22Q3 (12)11.75-15.774.54
22Q2 (11)13.950.2950.16
22Q1 (10)13.91-1.4955.07
21Q4 (9)14.1225.62110.75
21Q3 (8)11.2420.9958.76
21Q2 (7)9.293.5723.54
21Q1 (6)8.9733.8867.66
20Q4 (5)6.7-5.3742.55
20Q3 (4)7.08-5.850.0
20Q2 (3)7.5240.560.0
20Q1 (2)5.3513.830.0
19Q4 (1)4.70.00.0

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