玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.3-20.41-4.593.256.291.03N/A-
2024/90.389.2817.432.957.561.130.35-
2024/80.35-13.550.62.576.231.020.39-
2024/70.448.764.542.227.171.070.37-
2024/60.27-31.01-17.551.827.771.010.43-
2024/50.3914.9319.261.5513.911.020.42-
2024/40.3417.7626.521.1512.190.770.56-
2024/30.29104.15-26.620.817.090.810.52-
2024/20.14-62.59-26.190.5243.830.880.48-
2024/10.387.5122.960.38122.961.10.38因市場需求逐漸回溫,且本期未受春節假期營業天數減少影響,致營收增加122.97%
2023/120.35-4.47.393.78-3.451.040.41-
2023/110.3716.4317.643.43-4.441.010.43-
2023/100.32-2.0445.973.06-6.560.990.44-
2023/90.32-6.3626.632.74-10.31.060.4-
2023/80.35-10.176.812.42-13.681.060.4-
2023/70.3917.315.712.07-16.361.040.4-
2023/60.33-0.2-7.081.69-21.340.930.4-
2023/50.3321.926.221.36-24.161.00.37-
2023/40.27-31.7-33.91.03-30.530.860.43-
2023/30.4105.3531.940.76-29.240.760.5-
2023/20.1912.99-33.960.36-52.990.690.55因市場需求減緩且客戶庫存調整,致本年累計營收較去年同期減少。
2023/10.17-48.21-64.540.17-64.540.810.47因112年1月適逢春節假期營業天數減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2022/120.334.71-28.173.92-37.090.860.48-
2022/110.3144.47-24.393.59-37.80.790.52-
2022/100.22-15.01-57.323.28-38.840.80.51係因市場需求減緩且客戶庫存調整,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2022/90.26-21.02-55.853.06-36.890.910.46係因市場需求減緩且客戶庫存調整,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2022/80.32-2.69-48.442.8-34.321.010.42-
2022/70.33-5.79-51.722.48-31.881.00.42受市場需求減緩及中國疫情影響,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2022/60.3514.08-44.942.14-27.231.070.49-
2022/50.31-24.13-50.861.79-22.291.020.52受中國疫情影響,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2022/40.4136.32-25.21.48-11.521.00.53-
2022/30.32.77-31.781.07-4.891.070.59-
2022/20.29-39.3232.580.7712.281.230.51-
2022/10.484.892.730.482.731.350.47-
2021/120.4610.215.086.2334.241.380.53-
2021/110.42-18.444.675.7737.271.510.48-
2021/100.51-12.0914.065.3640.671.720.42-
2021/90.58-7.763.894.8544.211.90.42-
2021/80.63-8.8923.214.2752.241.960.4去年因疫情衝擊,今年訂單需求成長與管理精進,以致今年營收較去年同期增加。
2021/70.697.4446.633.6458.711.960.4去年因疫情衝擊,今年訂單需求成長與管理精進,以致今年營收較去年同期增加。
2021/60.641.844.092.9561.831.820.47去年因疫情衝擊,今年訂單需求成長與管理精進,以致今年營收較去年同期增加。
2021/50.6315.4939.052.367.581.620.53去年因疫情衝擊,今年訂單需求成長,以致今年營收較去年同期增加。
2021/40.5524.3478.21.6781.631.210.7去年因疫情衝擊,今年訂單需求成長,以致今年營收較去年同期增加。
2021/30.4499.7495.031.1383.341.130.62主要係去年同期受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響,故今年營收較去年同期大幅成長。
2021/20.22-52.98204.580.6976.571.120.62主要係去年同期受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響,故今年營收較去年同期大幅成長。
2021/10.477.2847.440.4747.441.30.54-
2020/120.449.78-3.684.64-8.821.280.47-
2020/110.4-11.12-2.944.2-9.331.40.43-
2020/100.45-19.9334.43.81-9.941.520.4-
2020/90.569.3834.553.36-13.731.540.34-
2020/80.518.4212.542.8-19.491.430.37-
2020/70.475.58-9.972.29-24.291.370.39-
2020/60.45-1.7515.81.82-27.271.210.45-
2020/50.4548.0-9.551.38-35.10.990.55-
2020/40.3136.08-37.290.92-43.030.60.89-
2020/30.23211.93-51.080.61-45.510.610.98受新型冠狀病毒疫情影響,工廠人員回流遲緩以致產能利用率減少,故本期較去年同期營收減少。
2020/20.07-77.23-64.980.39-41.670.840.71因新型冠狀病毒疫情影響,大陸春節延後復工生產所致。
2020/10.32-29.91-31.260.32-31.261.180.51-
2019/120.4510.6311.175.09-15.520.0N/A-
2019/110.4123.06-7.924.64-17.450.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.382023/10.172022/10.482021/10.472020/10.32
2024/20.142023/20.192022/20.292021/20.222020/20.07
2024/30.292023/30.42022/30.32021/30.442020/30.23
2024/40.342023/40.272022/40.412021/40.552020/40.31
2024/50.392023/50.332022/50.312021/50.632020/50.45
2024/60.272023/60.332022/60.352021/60.642020/60.45
2024/70.42023/70.392022/70.332021/70.692020/70.47
2024/80.352023/80.352022/80.322021/80.632020/80.51
2024/90.382023/90.322022/90.262021/90.582020/90.56
2024/100.32023/100.322022/100.222021/100.512020/100.45
N/AN/A2023/110.372022/110.312021/110.422020/110.4
N/AN/A2023/120.352022/120.332021/120.462020/120.44
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.03%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.07-12.50.0
24Q2 (19)0.08-11.11-33.33
24Q1 (18)0.09-10.0-18.18
23Q4 (17)0.142.86-9.09
23Q3 (16)0.07-41.67-30.0
23Q2 (15)0.129.09-20.0
23Q1 (14)0.110.0-31.25
22Q4 (13)0.1110.0-38.89
22Q3 (12)0.1-33.33-50.0
22Q2 (11)0.15-6.25-48.28
22Q1 (10)0.16-11.11-46.67
21Q4 (9)0.18-10.0-5.26
21Q3 (8)0.2-31.0317.65
21Q2 (7)0.29-3.330
21Q1 (6)0.357.890
20Q4 (5)0.1911.760
20Q3 (4)0.1700.0

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