玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/114.6332.0427.3741.328.7711.67N/A-
2024/103.51-0.780.0636.6728.9510.72N/A-
2024/93.53-3.8136.7733.1733.0110.970.68-
2024/83.67-2.328.9629.6332.5710.980.68-
2024/73.766.1445.1325.9633.111.320.66-
2024/63.54-11.789.2922.231.2612.060.61-
2024/54.02-10.7314.8918.6536.4712.370.6-
2024/44.516.8882.0114.6343.8911.270.66去年同期營收低,導致基期偏低
2024/33.8531.7449.3110.1331.6410.130.65-
2024/22.92-13.0319.846.2822.749.090.73-
2024/13.3619.5925.383.3625.389.810.67-
2023/122.81-22.719.9634.88-37.089.950.56-
2023/113.643.7329.3632.07-39.599.720.57-
2023/103.535.59-23.5228.44-43.448.940.62-
2023/92.58-9.3-45.8124.93-45.448.030.85-
2023/82.859.94-39.6822.35-45.48.680.79-
2023/72.59-20.07-44.119.5-46.149.330.73-
2023/63.24-7.26-44.4216.91-46.459.210.76-
2023/53.541.4-39.2613.67-46.918.550.82-
2023/42.47-4.11-49.0110.17-49.117.490.93-
2023/32.585.73-49.37.7-49.147.71.03-
2023/22.44-9.01-44.465.12-49.067.461.06-
2023/12.6814.42-52.622.68-52.627.831.01去年基期相對偏高
2022/122.34-16.64-51.6355.446.929.740.94去年基期相對偏高
2022/112.81-38.67-53.0753.112.9512.160.76去年基期相對偏高
2022/104.58-3.92-20.9250.2922.5914.080.65-
2022/94.770.96-12.045.7129.7614.130.83-
2022/84.721.89-4.5840.9437.3515.20.78-
2022/74.64-20.5216.9736.2145.7116.230.73-
2022/65.831.3350.2231.5851.1616.440.71去年疫情基期低,今年恢復正常
2022/55.7618.7151.5525.7451.3815.690.74去年疫情基期低,今年恢復正常
2022/44.85-4.6619.5519.9951.3314.330.81去年疫情基期低,今年恢復正常
2022/35.0915.8365.9715.1465.4215.140.87去年疫情導致基期低,今年恢復正常
2022/24.39-22.3867.1110.0565.1414.890.88去年疫情導致基期低,今年恢復正常
2022/15.6616.8263.645.6663.6416.490.79去年疫情導致基期低,今年恢復正常
2021/124.84-19.1266.7851.8516.9616.630.86去年疫情導致基期低,今年恢復正常
2021/115.993.3371.1247.0113.4717.20.83去年疫情導致基期低,今年恢復正常
2021/105.86.950.5841.028.1516.170.88去年疫情導致基期低,今年恢復正常
2021/95.429.4831.8635.223.3614.341.07-
2021/84.9524.922.9829.8-0.5412.81.2-
2021/73.962.062.5924.85-4.1911.651.32-
2021/63.882.2316.7420.89-5.3811.741.0-
2021/53.8-6.3524.1117.0-9.3110.921.08-
2021/44.0632.3529.9513.21-15.839.751.21-
2021/33.0616.62-25.399.15-27.29.150.92-
2021/22.63-23.99-31.546.09-28.088.990.94-
2021/13.4619.06-25.213.46-25.219.860.86-
2020/122.9-17.02-33.2244.33-16.8310.250.64-
2020/113.5-9.06-4.1941.43-15.3811.460.57-
2020/103.85-6.38-17.2237.93-16.2811.980.55-
2020/94.112.12.7134.08-16.1712.00.69-
2020/84.034.2-2.1729.97-18.2311.220.74-
2020/73.8616.14-8.7125.94-20.2610.250.81-
2020/63.338.68-28.722.08-21.999.510.91-
2020/53.06-1.95-33.518.75-20.6710.290.84-
2020/43.12-24.0-33.5315.69-17.5711.070.78-
2020/34.117.0-20.7912.57-12.3412.570.71-
2020/23.84-16.967.188.46-7.5512.810.7-
2020/14.626.3-17.024.62-17.020.0N/A-
2019/124.3519.0533.953.3-18.860.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.362023/12.682022/15.662021/13.462020/14.62
2024/22.922023/22.442022/24.392021/22.632020/23.84
2024/33.852023/32.582022/35.092021/33.062020/34.11
2024/44.52023/42.472022/44.852021/44.062020/43.12
2024/54.022023/53.52022/55.762021/53.82020/53.06
2024/63.542023/63.242022/65.832021/63.882020/63.33
2024/73.762023/72.592022/74.642021/73.962020/73.86
2024/83.672023/82.852022/84.722021/84.952020/84.03
2024/93.532023/92.582022/94.772021/95.422020/94.11
2024/103.512023/103.52022/104.582021/105.82020/103.85
2024/114.632023/113.642022/112.812021/115.992020/113.5
N/AN/A2023/122.812022/122.342021/124.842020/122.9
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.75%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.6813.3361.9
24Q2 (19)0.6-10.4553.85
24Q1 (18)0.67-21.1842.55
23Q4 (17)0.85102.3849.12
23Q3 (16)0.427.69110.0
23Q2 (15)0.39-17.0285.71
23Q1 (14)0.47-17.5488.0
22Q4 (13)0.57185.018.75
22Q3 (12)0.2-4.76-75.9
22Q2 (11)0.21-16.0-69.12
22Q1 (10)0.25-47.92-28.57
21Q4 (9)0.48-42.17-21.31
21Q3 (8)0.8322.06315.0
21Q2 (7)0.6894.290
21Q1 (6)0.35-42.620
20Q4 (5)0.61205.00
20Q3 (4)0.200.0

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