玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.71-8.62-30.279.44-23.912.4N/A-
2024/100.78-13.2-27.678.72-23.342.54N/A-
2024/90.95.44-32.597.94-22.882.750.53-
2024/80.85-14.37-27.257.04-21.432.80.53-
2024/71.05.88-9.056.18-20.562.940.5-
2024/60.94-5.63-22.95.19-22.452.80.52-
2024/51.015.95-6.064.24-22.342.780.53-
2024/40.86-5.81-15.153.24-26.282.40.61-
2024/30.9146.71-32.832.38-29.622.380.7-
2024/20.62-26.0-33.21.47-27.462.660.62-
2024/10.84-29.19-22.540.84-22.543.060.54-
2023/121.1916.09-14.313.59-15.563.30.48-
2023/111.03-5.22-34.6712.4-15.683.440.46-
2023/101.08-19.11-29.2711.38-13.423.590.44-
2023/91.3413.812.4310.3-11.333.610.5-
2023/81.187.03-22.048.96-13.073.50.52-
2023/71.1-10.24-20.297.78-11.543.380.53-
2023/61.2214.97-3.876.69-9.913.30.65-
2023/51.064.73-24.285.46-11.163.440.62-
2023/41.02-25.44-14.384.4-7.283.310.65-
2023/31.3645.91-5.733.38-4.913.380.63-
2023/20.93-14.19-14.42.02-4.353.410.62-
2023/11.09-21.666.351.096.354.050.52-
2022/121.39-11.510.8816.132.834.490.49-
2022/111.572.6135.7814.7135.364.40.5-
2022/101.5317.1571.3513.1435.314.340.5去年疫情基期低+美國子公司出貨增加及匯率影響
2022/91.31-13.3810.8711.6131.664.190.57-
2022/81.519.4355.0910.3134.864.160.58美國子公司營收增加+美金匯率的影響
2022/71.388.2434.368.831.924.050.59-
2022/61.27-9.4342.27.4231.473.860.56-
2022/51.4118.4347.06.1529.454.040.53-
2022/41.19-17.932.184.7525.033.720.58-
2022/31.4532.4932.663.5622.823.560.57-
2022/21.096.6147.532.1116.893.370.6-
2022/11.02-18.32-4.291.02-4.293.430.59-
2021/121.258.3627.1612.1219.43.30.6-
2021/111.1629.4919.3810.8718.563.230.61-
2021/100.89-24.19-8.739.7118.473.040.65-
2021/91.1821.1519.18.8222.153.170.56-
2021/80.97-5.18-4.017.6422.642.890.61-
2021/71.0314.56-18.266.6727.812.880.62-
2021/60.89-6.3823.055.6542.382.750.51-
2021/50.966.4979.34.7546.722.940.47去年因疫情影響導致基期低,本期屬正常出貨
2021/40.9-17.688.723.7940.32.730.51去年因疫情影響導致基期低,本期屬正常出貨
2021/31.0947.3462.182.929.972.90.51去年同期因疫情的影響,本季度屬正常出貨
2021/20.74-30.834.611.8116.082.790.53-
2021/11.078.5125.611.0725.613.020.49-
2020/120.981.7325.2310.150.562.930.42-
2020/110.97-1.0137.569.17-1.512.930.42-
2020/100.98-1.0630.798.2-4.712.980.41-
2020/90.99-2.367.497.22-8.093.260.35-
2020/81.01-19.2644.516.23-10.162.990.38-
2020/71.2572.4752.895.22-16.32.510.45上半年因疫情無法出貨,於本月陸續出貨
2020/60.7336.41-18.123.96-26.781.740.61-
2020/50.5312.08-44.963.24-28.481.680.63-
2020/40.48-29.18-47.22.7-24.01.850.57-
2020/30.67-4.95-34.442.23-16.142.230.44-
2020/20.71-16.9618.731.56-4.662.340.42-
2020/10.858.19-18.060.85-18.060.0N/A-
2019/120.7911.75-3.1710.09-23.990.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.842023/11.092022/11.022021/11.072020/10.85
2024/20.622023/20.932022/21.092021/20.742020/20.71
2024/30.912023/31.362022/31.452021/31.092020/30.67
2024/40.862023/41.022022/41.192021/40.92020/40.48
2024/51.02023/51.062022/51.412021/50.962020/50.53
2024/60.942023/61.222022/61.272021/60.892020/60.73
2024/71.02023/71.12022/71.382021/71.032020/71.25
2024/80.852023/81.182022/81.512021/80.972020/81.01
2024/90.92023/91.342022/91.312021/91.182020/90.99
2024/100.782023/101.082022/101.532021/100.892020/100.98
2024/110.712023/111.032022/111.572021/111.162020/110.97
N/AN/A2023/121.192022/121.392021/121.252020/120.98
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 12.15%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.579.62147.83
24Q2 (19)0.52477.78160.0
24Q1 (18)0.0928.57-60.87
23Q4 (17)0.07-69.57-82.5
23Q3 (16)0.2315.0-43.9
23Q2 (15)0.2-13.04-54.55
23Q1 (14)0.23-42.591.67
22Q4 (13)0.4-2.4490.48
22Q3 (12)0.41-6.8270.83
22Q2 (11)0.44266.67266.67
22Q1 (10)0.12-42.86300.0
21Q4 (9)0.21-12.5950.0
21Q3 (8)0.24100.01100.0
21Q2 (7)0.12300.0100.0
21Q1 (6)0.0350.0-70.0
20Q4 (5)0.020.0-81.82
20Q3 (4)0.02-66.670.0
20Q2 (3)0.06-40.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.1-9.090.0
19Q4 (1)0.110.00.0

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