玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.31-62.67-42.664.91-16.051.92N/A-
2024/90.836.5271.734.6-13.342.261.82因客戶批次增加拉貨所致
2024/80.7819.6833.393.77-21.861.882.19-
2024/70.6545.434.712.99-29.461.482.78-
2024/60.4516.78-21.322.34-35.321.313.25-
2024/50.38-20.32-48.341.9-37.931.113.85-
2024/40.4897.06-32.191.51-34.591.014.21-
2024/30.24-15.27-60.471.03-35.660.964.53主因客戶代工專案第一梯次業已全數完工,後續尚待新的客供料送達始啟動;儲能案場皆已認列收入,新案場尚在開發中,故營收減少。
2024/20.29-42.3-46.680.79-20.111.213.6-
2024/10.43-13.61-4.540.43-4.541.472.94-
2023/120.49-11.67-18.086.918.41.592.43-
2023/110.563.13-10.646.4122.591.582.45-
2023/100.5411.78-18.155.8527.091.612.41-
2023/90.48-17.25-5.865.3134.661.691.84-
2023/80.58-6.0416.794.8340.731.771.75-
2023/70.629.2614.144.2544.811.931.6因疫情趨緩,客戶批次增加拉貨所致
2023/60.57-23.328.013.6251.812.021.47因疫情趨緩,客戶批次增加拉貨所致
2023/50.744.59158.933.0564.212.071.43因疫情趨緩,客戶批次增加拉貨所致
2023/40.7114.85108.842.3146.961.871.59因疫情趨緩,客戶批次增加拉貨所致
2023/30.6214.2927.261.629.931.62.08-
2023/20.5421.3355.490.9931.661.592.11因疫情趨緩,客戶增加拉貨所致
2023/10.45-25.8611.010.4511.011.672.0-
2022/120.6-3.6534.785.83-65.061.881.77因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受到環境及時程安排影響,遞延出貨
2022/110.62-5.53-12.915.23-67.81.81.85因舊合約已全數出貨完成,新產品尚在推廣中
2022/100.6628.57-57.474.61-70.341.671.99因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受到環境及時程安排影響,遞延出貨
2022/90.512.65-17.863.95-71.761.562.18因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受到環境及時程安排影響,遞延出貨
2022/80.5-8.17-33.663.43-74.291.572.16因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受到環境及時程安排影響,遞延出貨
2022/70.543.39-40.752.93-76.721.362.5因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受到環境及時程安排影響,遞延出貨
2022/60.5383.81-77.142.39-79.551.152.91因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受疫情影響尚未開始出貨
2022/50.29-15.63-92.251.86-80.151.113.01因舊訂單已全數出貨,新訂單受疫情影響尚未開始出貨
2022/40.34-30.01-89.421.57-72.251.172.86主因舊專案已全數出貨完成, 新專案尚未開始出貨所致
2022/30.4939.65-50.981.23-49.81.232.47舊訂單已全數出貨完成,新訂單尚未出貨
2022/20.35-13.37-36.120.75-49.011.192.55-
2022/10.4-9.98-56.60.4-56.61.561.95舊訂單已全數出貨完成,新訂單尚未出貨
2021/120.45-37.75-57.6116.6926.872.711.12因舊訂單已出貨完成,新訂單尚未發酵
2021/110.72-53.87-51.4716.2434.212.891.05只要係因客戶訂單已全數出貨完成
2021/101.55148.33-27.6515.5346.112.931.04-
2021/90.63-17.08-42.4513.9764.782.31.24因客戶訂單已出貨完成
2021/80.75-17.98-27.0413.3580.533.980.72主要係配合客戶訂單,集中拉貨所致。
2021/70.92-60.11-0.212.698.06.920.41因客戶訂單已出貨完成
2021/62.3-37.7196.0211.68114.639.220.43主要係配合客戶需求拉貨
2021/53.715.13358.349.37101.047.90.5主要係客戶需求增加,集中至本月出貨。
2021/43.21224.52344.975.6747.164.750.84主要係配合客戶訂單,集中拉貨所致。
2021/30.9981.994.682.46-21.52.461.54-
2021/20.54-41.14-41.781.47-32.832.521.5-
2021/10.92-12.08-26.140.92-26.143.451.1-
2020/121.05-28.7444.6113.15106.974.670.72主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/111.48-31.22118.812.1115.034.710.72主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/102.1597.53253.0610.63114.524.270.79主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/91.095.11116.58.4895.143.041.17主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/81.0312.19135.467.3992.352.731.3主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/70.9218.3130.286.3686.82.511.42主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/60.78-3.5458.345.4481.012.311.02主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/50.8111.7730.964.6685.452.480.95主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/40.72-23.6410.443.85103.142.60.9主要係客戶需求增加,及新產品出貨。
2020/30.951.19109.323.13151.893.130.66主要係新產品於本月出貨。
2020/20.93-25.32234.82.19176.182.910.71主要係客戶需求增加,集中至本月出貨。
2020/11.2572.14144.251.25144.252.650.78主要係客戶需求增加,集中至本月出貨。
2019/120.737.836.036.36-40.660.0N/A-
2019/110.6710.97-27.565.63-44.690.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.432023/10.452022/10.42021/10.922020/11.25
2024/20.292023/20.542022/20.352021/20.542020/20.93
2024/30.242023/30.622022/30.492021/30.992020/30.95
2024/40.482023/40.712022/40.342021/43.212020/40.72
2024/50.382023/50.742022/50.292021/53.72020/50.81
2024/60.452023/60.572022/60.532021/62.32020/60.78
2024/70.652023/70.622022/70.542021/70.922020/70.92
2024/80.782023/80.582022/80.52021/80.752020/81.03
2024/90.832023/90.482022/90.512021/90.632020/91.09
2024/100.312023/100.542022/100.662021/101.552020/102.15
N/AN/A2023/110.562022/110.622021/110.722020/111.48
N/AN/A2023/120.492022/120.62021/120.452020/121.05
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 9.0%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.48-18.64-44.83
24Q2 (19)0.59-61.69-27.16
24Q1 (18)1.54120.0275.61
23Q4 (17)0.7-19.5475.0
23Q3 (16)0.877.41102.33
23Q2 (15)0.8197.5644.64
23Q1 (14)0.412.5-26.79
22Q4 (13)0.4-6.98-25.93
22Q3 (12)0.43-23.21-44.16
22Q2 (11)0.560.0-15.15
22Q1 (10)0.563.7-75.0
21Q4 (9)0.54-29.87260.0
21Q3 (8)0.7716.67234.78
21Q2 (7)0.66-70.54200.0
21Q1 (6)2.241393.331020.0
20Q4 (5)0.15-34.78-55.88
20Q3 (4)0.234.550.0
20Q2 (3)0.2210.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.2-41.180.0
19Q4 (1)0.340.00.0

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