玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.56-16.3312.4116.265.364.88N/A-
2024/91.8729.2916.1714.694.665.020.62-
2024/81.45-15.3-14.3512.823.174.980.62-
2024/71.71-6.618.6911.385.935.240.59-
2024/61.837.432.859.675.455.350.55-
2024/51.7-6.842.147.846.085.220.56-
2024/41.837.592.66.147.224.40.67-
2024/31.793.83-9.764.329.34.320.73-
2024/20.88-49.81-31.622.6226.644.470.7-
2024/11.74-5.83121.321.74121.325.350.59本月及本年增加達121.32%,主係去年1月適逢農曆新年假期且物流受疫情影響提前停運,今年皆無此情況所致。
2023/121.855.61-2.3219.042.145.00.58-
2023/111.7526.114.7217.182.654.750.61-
2023/101.39-13.532.4415.432.424.690.62-
2023/91.61-4.684.1714.042.414.870.61-
2023/81.697.4917.1512.432.195.030.59-
2023/71.57-11.630.4310.740.185.010.59-
2023/61.786.71.079.170.145.220.54-
2023/51.67-6.439.657.39-0.075.330.53-
2023/41.78-5.3812.875.73-2.594.940.57-
2023/31.8846.8616.363.95-8.253.950.73-
2023/21.2862.4619.482.07-23.053.970.73-
2023/10.79-58.44-51.240.79-51.244.360.67本月及本年減少達50%以上,主係:1.適逢農曆新年假期工作天期較去年減少 2.大陸1月疫情爆發,物流提早停運所致。
2022/121.913.24-4.5918.64-9.824.930.57-
2022/111.6823.37-22.4716.74-10.374.580.61-
2022/101.36-12.08-10.7915.06-8.794.340.65-
2022/91.547.19-7.0113.71-8.594.550.63-
2022/81.44-7.84-16.3212.16-8.784.760.6-
2022/71.56-11.07-1.1810.72-7.674.840.59-
2022/61.7615.76-15.419.16-8.694.850.68-
2022/51.52-3.69-13.747.4-6.934.710.7-
2022/41.58-2.45-9.055.88-5.04.260.77-
2022/31.6250.8-24.164.31-3.424.310.9-
2022/21.07-33.738.082.6915.564.680.83-
2022/11.62-18.684.291.624.295.770.67-
2021/121.99-7.970.4120.678.015.670.6-
2021/112.1641.9411.9818.688.895.340.64-
2021/101.52-8.35-4.4516.528.54.90.7-
2021/91.66-3.54-9.5814.9910.014.960.7-
2021/81.728.846.3713.3313.075.380.64-
2021/71.58-23.87-4.0311.6114.135.420.64-
2021/62.0818.0422.4810.0317.655.570.57-
2021/51.761.534.477.9516.455.630.57-
2021/41.73-18.65-7.816.1920.374.640.69-
2021/32.13174.5828.824.4636.614.460.68-
2021/20.78-49.93-2.72.3344.644.310.7-
2021/11.55-21.791.231.5591.235.460.551.去年1月下旬適逢農曆年節,工作天期較少,使基期較低 2.因應客戶農曆年前提升備貨量及市場需求,致營收較去年同期成長91.24%
2020/121.982.626.6819.131.35.50.52-
2020/111.9321.111.2517.150.715.360.53-
2020/101.59-13.270.8215.220.645.050.56-
2020/91.8413.4812.613.630.625.10.53-
2020/81.62-1.813.7311.79-1.014.960.55-
2020/71.65-2.836.8810.17-1.735.030.54-
2020/61.70.6811.498.53-3.235.260.53-
2020/51.69-10.48.536.83-6.315.220.54-
2020/41.8813.67-1.985.14-10.334.330.65-
2020/31.65107.386.573.26-14.523.260.81-
2020/20.8-1.58-0.761.61-28.983.460.76-
2020/10.81-56.32-44.510.81-44.514.570.58-
2019/121.86-2.6-0.0818.89-0.690.0N/A-
2019/111.9120.62.7317.03-0.750.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.742023/10.792022/11.622021/11.552020/10.81
2024/20.882023/21.282022/21.072021/20.782020/20.8
2024/31.72023/31.882022/31.622021/32.132020/31.65
2024/41.832023/41.782022/41.582021/41.732020/41.88
2024/51.72023/51.672022/51.522021/51.762020/51.69
2024/61.832023/61.782022/61.762021/62.082020/61.7
2024/71.712023/71.572022/71.562021/71.582020/71.65
2024/81.452023/81.692022/81.442021/81.722020/81.62
2024/91.872023/91.612022/91.542021/91.662020/91.84
2024/101.562023/101.392022/101.362021/101.522020/101.59
N/AN/A2023/111.752022/111.682021/112.162020/111.93
N/AN/A2023/121.852022/121.92021/121.992020/121.98
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.95%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.249.0933.33
24Q2 (19)0.22-31.250.0
24Q1 (18)0.3288.2460.0
23Q4 (17)0.17-5.56-5.56
23Q3 (16)0.18-18.18-25.0
23Q2 (15)0.2210.0-12.0
23Q1 (14)0.211.11-16.67
22Q4 (13)0.18-25.0-35.71
22Q3 (12)0.24-4.09.09
22Q2 (11)0.254.1719.05
22Q1 (10)0.24-14.29-31.43
21Q4 (9)0.2827.2786.67
21Q3 (8)0.224.7637.5
21Q2 (7)0.21-40.010.53
21Q1 (6)0.35133.3320.69
20Q4 (5)0.15-6.25-21.05
20Q3 (4)0.16-15.790.0
20Q2 (3)0.19-34.480.0
20Q1 (2)0.2952.630.0
19Q4 (1)0.190.00.0

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