玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.1821.025.7238.27-7.4511.63N/A-
2024/93.45-13.54-0.8734.09-8.849.960.94-
2024/84.059.0-28.6330.63-9.6610.10.93-
2024/72.51-29.99-24.4326.64-5.9110.790.87-
2024/63.59-23.3420.3224.12-3.4412.730.53-
2024/54.685.0758.020.53-6.6613.260.51主要係因本期公務船舶之建造進度,其相關備品已依合約完成分批交貨,故本期營收較去年同期增加。
2024/44.468.2116.3215.85-16.7312.370.55-
2024/34.128.46-35.4711.39-25.0711.390.51-
2024/23.89.2429.027.27-17.5411.570.5-
2024/13.48-19.07-40.863.48-40.8612.00.48-
2023/124.31.5338.0149.8730.1612.480.5-
2023/114.236.96-22.7245.5829.4711.670.54-
2023/103.9513.4847.7641.3539.0813.040.48-
2023/93.48-37.7530.837.3938.2212.410.56-
2023/85.668.3685.2633.9139.0311.910.58主要係因本期公務船舶之進度,分批完成合約之相關裝備驗收節點,故本期營收較去年同期增加
2023/73.3311.45-6.128.3132.499.270.75-
2023/62.980.6525.1424.9840.169.780.97-
2023/52.96-22.64-44.4322.042.4813.180.72-
2023/43.83-39.9687.5919.0488.3613.160.72因本期公務船舶之建造量值較去年同期增加,依完工百分比進度認列收入,故本期營收增加。
2023/36.38116.8619.7215.288.5615.20.64因本期公務船舶之建造進度正值主要設備施工階段,依完工百分比進度認列收入,故本期營收增加。
2023/22.94-49.92146.628.82222.9111.930.82因本期公務船舶之建造量值較去年同期增加,依完工百分比進度認列收入,故本期營收增加。
2023/15.8888.88282.095.88282.0914.460.68因本期公務船舶之建造進度正值主要設備施工階段,依完工百分比進度認列收入,故本期營收增加。
2022/123.11-43.15138.2938.3270.7111.261.27因新廠啟用後產能提昇,而本期公務船舶之建造量值較去年同期增加,故本月依完工百分比進度認列收入增加.
2022/115.47104.53317.1635.266.5310.821.32因新廠啟用後產能提昇,而本期公務船舶之建造進度正值主要設備施工階段,故本期依完工百分比進度認列收入增加。
2022/102.680.4549.6829.7349.958.361.71-
2022/92.66-11.8333.5927.0549.979.231.09-
2022/83.02-14.6732.0924.3952.018.951.13因新廠啟用後產能提昇,本期公務船舶之建造產量也較去年同期增加,本期依完工百分比進度認列收入增加所致。
2022/73.5448.5579.5321.3755.3211.260.9因新廠啟用後產能提昇,本期公務船舶之建造產量也較去年同期增加,本期依完工百分比進度認列收入增加所致。
2022/62.38-55.348.3117.8251.279.760.63因新廠啟用後產能提昇,本期公務船舶之建造產量也較去年同期增加,本期依完工百分本比進度認度收入增加所致。
2022/55.33161.16130.4415.4451.7312.710.48因新廠啟用後產能提昇,及本期公務船舶之建造進度正逢主要設備施工階段,依完工百分比進度認列收入增加之故。
2022/42.04-61.68-22.6110.1128.568.570.72-
2022/35.33346.72117.858.0654.438.060.49因新廠啟用後產能提昇,及本期公務船舶之建造進度正逢主要設備施工階段,依完工百分比進度認列收入增加之故。
2022/21.19-22.42-10.772.73-1.514.040.97-
2022/11.5417.87.11.547.14.160.95-
2021/121.31-0.48-23.5122.4416.194.410.54-
2021/111.31-26.60.821.1420.045.090.47-
2021/101.79-10.3429.6419.8321.586.070.39-
2021/91.99-12.8342.1418.0420.836.250.39-
2021/82.2915.9758.1516.0418.625.870.42因船舶建造接單量增,及新廠啟用使產能提升,故本年度依建造進度認列收入相對增加。
2021/71.9722.7115.9913.7613.895.90.42-
2021/61.61-30.55-6.311.7813.546.560.33-
2021/52.31-12.29-50.9810.1817.477.40.29單月營收較去年同期減少,因去年同期適逢大型船案主要裝備安裝,以完工百分比認列營收大增,而本期並無。
2021/42.647.85146.827.8699.576.420.34因船舶建造接單量增加,及新廠啟用使產能提升,故本年度依建造進度認列收入相對增加。
2021/32.4582.96109.175.2281.965.220.0因船舶建造接單量增加,及新廠啟用使產能提升,故本年度依建造進度認列收入相對增加。
2021/21.34-6.8733.622.7763.234.480.0因船舶建造接單量增加,及新廠啟用使產能提升,故本年度依建造進度認列收入相對增加
2021/11.44-15.87105.691.44105.694.450.0係因國艦國造船舶建造接單收入增加;加以109年1月適逢農曆春節假期營業日較少,比較基礎期營收較低所致。
2020/121.7131.1593.9419.3276.774.390.42-
2020/111.3-5.613.1917.6175.264.080.45-
2020/101.38-1.7159.8116.3183.294.230.44-
2020/91.4-3.01185.6414.9378.434.550.0-
2020/81.45-14.94132.0513.5271.744.860.0-
2020/71.7-0.87153.8812.0866.568.140.0-
2020/61.72-63.6790.2510.3857.677.510.15-
2020/54.72341.64222.818.6652.56.960.16-
2020/41.07-8.59-17.353.94-6.593.240.34-
2020/31.1716.88-8.382.87-1.822.870.0-
2020/21.043.3417.211.73.272.580.0-
2020/10.7-20.67-11.770.7-11.772.730.0-
2019/120.88-23.45-24.710.9312.050.0N/A-
2019/111.15116.669.210.0517.060.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.482023/15.882022/11.542021/11.442020/10.7
2024/23.82023/22.942022/21.192021/21.342020/21.0
2024/34.122023/36.382022/35.332021/32.452020/31.17
2024/44.462023/43.832022/42.042021/42.642020/41.07
2024/54.682023/52.962022/55.332021/52.312020/54.72
2024/63.592023/62.982022/62.382021/61.612020/61.72
2024/72.512023/73.332022/73.542021/71.972020/71.7
2024/84.02023/85.62022/83.022021/82.292020/81.45
2024/93.452023/93.482022/92.662021/91.992020/91.4
2024/104.182023/103.952022/102.682021/101.792020/101.38
N/AN/A2023/114.232022/115.472021/111.312020/111.3
N/AN/A2023/124.32022/123.112021/121.312020/121.71
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 220.35%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)24.9319.11369.49
24Q2 (19)20.93-11.8489.93
24Q1 (18)23.74-17.3462.27
23Q4 (17)28.72440.8798.21
23Q3 (16)5.31-51.81-8.92
23Q2 (15)11.02-24.6827.25
23Q1 (14)14.630.9748.38
22Q4 (13)14.49148.5468.68
22Q3 (12)5.83-32.6863.76
22Q2 (11)8.66-12.17895.4
22Q1 (10)9.8614.780
21Q4 (9)8.59141.29231.66
21Q3 (8)3.56309.20
21Q2 (7)0.870-16.35

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