玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.97-23.08-31.7210.91-39.733.28N/A-
2024/91.2722.16-34.749.94-40.423.530.75-
2024/81.04-15.81-37.598.67-41.163.170.83-
2024/71.2335.82-22.487.63-41.623.120.85-
2024/60.91-8.16-51.076.4-44.262.81.01本期因客戶端及其客戶庫存仍有待去化,致營收較去年同期減少。
2024/50.999.25-54.385.5-42.952.980.95本期因客戶端及其客戶庫存仍有待去化,致營收較去年同期減少。
2024/40.9-16.93-38.894.51-39.653.010.94-
2024/31.096.14-52.183.61-39.833.610.73本期因客戶端及其客戶庫存仍有待去化,致營收較去年同期減少。
2024/21.02-31.51-52.22.52-32.293.690.72本期2月因適逢春節假期,出貨較少,致營收較去年同期減少。
2024/11.528.07-5.291.5-5.294.270.62-
2023/121.17-27.49-55.1920.88-13.764.20.83本期因客戶端及其客戶庫存仍有待去化,致營收較去年同期減少。
2023/111.6112.93-34.5319.72-8.764.980.7-
2023/101.43-26.48-20.6818.11-5.455.030.69-
2023/91.9416.82-6.1516.68-3.875.190.74-
2023/81.664.57-31.8314.74-3.565.10.75-
2023/71.59-14.27-23.9513.081.795.60.69-
2023/61.85-14.36-22.3611.496.785.490.72-
2023/52.1646.3414.149.6415.095.920.67-
2023/41.48-34.99-9.437.4715.375.90.68-
2023/32.276.116.966.023.726.00.78-
2023/22.1435.6883.823.7228.256.330.74去年2月因適逢春節假期,出貨較少。
2023/11.58-39.39-9.041.58-9.046.650.7-
2022/122.615.9237.9324.2219.566.870.8-
2022/112.4636.8236.1521.6117.676.330.87-
2022/101.8-13.0110.019.1515.656.30.87-
2022/92.07-15.1338.0417.3516.276.590.98-
2022/82.4416.6531.4615.2813.846.910.93-
2022/72.09-12.471.8912.8511.026.371.01-
2022/62.3925.922.6110.7612.985.911.06-
2022/51.916.1111.638.3710.515.471.14-
2022/41.63-16.047.626.4810.194.741.32-
2022/31.9466.7520.274.8511.084.851.12-
2022/21.17-32.8614.062.95.674.791.13-
2022/11.74-8.090.691.740.695.431.0-
2021/121.894.5625.8920.2514.15.330.99-
2021/111.8110.5436.0518.3713.014.941.07-
2021/101.639.1550.8316.5610.964.991.06主要原因:受疫情影響缺料,致上半年訂單延到下半年出貨。
2021/91.5-19.1810.1214.927.835.40.95-
2021/81.85-9.5929.9913.437.585.850.88-
2021/72.055.3240.6211.574.695.690.9-
2021/61.9514.633.159.52-0.755.160.89-
2021/51.711.94-5.297.58-1.714.830.95-
2021/41.52-6.18-26.725.88-0.634.151.1-
2021/31.6258.1416.314.3613.44.360.83-
2021/21.02-40.73-23.892.7511.754.250.86-
2021/11.7214.954.711.7254.714.550.8主要原因:去年同期適逢春節假期,故銷售金額較少。
2020/121.512.998.5517.75-7.143.910.86-
2020/111.3322.55-7.916.25-8.363.770.89-
2020/101.08-20.3-21.2414.92-8.413.870.87-
2020/91.36-4.6-16.113.84-7.224.240.74-
2020/81.43-2.19-10.4812.48-6.144.770.66-
2020/71.46-22.73-11.8611.05-5.555.140.61-
2020/61.895.248.979.6-4.515.750.65-
2020/51.79-13.38-6.377.71-7.325.250.71-
2020/42.0748.9154.475.92-7.64.80.78原受新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情影響,致大陸子公司人力、物料短缺情形已獲得改善,將原第一季減少出貨訂單,於本月陸續出貨。
2020/31.393.47-22.963.85-24.023.850.98-
2020/21.3420.481.962.46-24.613.840.98-
2020/11.11-19.37-42.631.11-42.633.940.96-
2019/121.38-4.13-21.319.12-1.750.0N/A-
2019/111.444.79-10.2317.730.170.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.52023/11.582022/11.742021/11.722020/11.11
2024/21.022023/22.142022/21.172021/21.022020/21.34
2024/31.092023/32.272022/31.942021/31.622020/31.39
2024/40.92023/41.482022/41.632021/41.522020/42.07
2024/50.992023/52.162022/51.92021/51.72020/51.79
2024/60.912023/61.852022/62.392021/61.952020/61.89
2024/71.232023/71.592022/72.092021/72.052020/71.46
2024/81.042023/81.662022/82.442021/81.852020/81.43
2024/91.272023/91.942022/92.072021/91.52020/91.36
2024/100.972023/101.432022/101.82021/101.632020/101.08
N/AN/A2023/111.612022/112.462021/111.812020/111.33
N/AN/A2023/121.172022/122.612021/121.892020/121.5
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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