玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.52-20.72-22.5639.4899.469.45N/A因客戶需求增加
2024/93.18-15.0310.9836.96123.5111.020.82因客戶需求增加
2024/83.75-8.4240.9933.77147.1312.10.75因客戶需求增加
2024/74.09-4.0376.3730.03172.7512.70.71因客戶需求增加
2024/64.26-1.86101.8725.94198.4813.070.84因客戶需求增加
2024/54.34-2.7120.221.67229.513.220.83因客戶需求增加
2024/44.471.25276.017.33276.3313.130.84因客戶需求增加
2024/34.413.69273.5712.86276.4412.860.86因客戶需求增加
2024/24.251.29305.258.45277.9512.340.89因客戶需求增加
2024/14.28.08253.824.2253.8211.640.95因客戶需求增加
2023/123.889.3207.3527.2325.8510.70.91因客戶需求增加
2023/113.559.06185.2223.3514.599.681.01因客戶需求增加
2023/103.2613.61164.719.793.478.781.11因客戶需求增加
2023/92.877.9453.7816.53-7.617.840.89因客戶需求增加
2023/82.6614.5534.113.67-14.757.090.98-
2023/72.329.8312.5811.01-21.646.41.09-
2023/62.117.043.658.69-27.525.270.91-
2023/51.9766.120.116.58-33.914.341.11-
2023/41.190.59-36.534.6-42.313.421.41-
2023/31.1812.48-35.233.42-44.083.420.89-
2023/21.05-11.56-42.32.24-47.843.50.87-
2023/11.19-6.1-51.921.19-51.923.70.82因市場需求減少
2022/121.261.43-63.2621.64-54.113.741.02因市場需求減少
2022/111.251.21-70.6720.37-53.394.340.88因市場需求減少
2022/101.23-33.99-72.6619.13-51.545.080.75因市場需求減少
2022/91.86-5.87-57.617.9-48.825.910.65因市場需求減少
2022/81.98-3.83-53.816.03-47.556.080.63因市場需求減少
2022/72.061.12-50.0414.05-46.536.070.64因市場需求減少
2022/62.043.38-48.5911.99-45.885.880.84-
2022/51.975.31-47.999.95-45.295.660.87-
2022/41.872.66-50.027.98-44.575.510.89因市場需求減少
2022/31.820.19-50.866.11-42.666.110.86因市場需求減少
2022/21.82-26.3-45.614.29-38.287.730.68-
2022/12.47-28.24-31.482.47-31.4810.160.52-
2021/123.44-19.01-0.8647.1633.0912.190.49-
2021/114.25-5.6624.8443.7236.7713.150.45-
2021/104.52.3639.5139.4738.213.190.45-
2021/94.42.5740.9634.9738.0312.810.5-
2021/84.293.9849.6230.5737.6212.380.51-
2021/74.124.0646.9626.2835.8411.880.54-
2021/63.964.5939.422.1633.9511.50.53-
2021/53.791.1935.6618.1932.8211.240.54-
2021/43.740.9535.3814.432.0910.80.56-
2021/33.7110.8836.2810.6630.9710.660.5-
2021/23.35-7.1523.046.9528.310.420.51-
2021/13.63.8133.63.633.610.480.5-
2020/123.471.9929.7435.4360.5610.10.51因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/113.45.4130.8831.9664.819.750.52因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/103.233.4327.5428.5670.069.220.55因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/93.128.8731.4625.3377.68.790.57因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/82.872.1323.5122.2186.818.520.59因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/72.81-1.2943.0419.35102.168.440.59因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/62.841.7966.2516.54117.418.40.57因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/52.790.9879.8513.7132.258.280.58因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/42.771.62122.1510.9150.998.210.58因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/32.720.1164.238.14162.578.140.6因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/22.720.81190.585.42161.758.090.6因客戶需求大幅增加
2020/12.70.81137.952.7137.957.970.61因客戶需求大幅增加
2019/122.672.88144.9722.0720.140.0N/A因客戶需求大幅增加
2019/112.62.72110.4919.3912.250.0N/A因新客戶需求增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.22023/11.192022/12.472021/13.62020/12.7
2024/24.252023/21.052022/21.822021/23.352020/22.72
2024/34.412023/31.182022/31.822021/33.712020/32.72
2024/44.472023/41.192022/41.872021/43.742020/42.77
2024/54.342023/51.972022/51.972021/53.792020/52.79
2024/64.262023/62.112022/62.042021/63.962020/62.84
2024/74.092023/72.322022/72.062021/74.122020/72.81
2024/83.752023/82.662022/81.982021/84.292020/82.87
2024/93.182023/92.872022/91.862021/94.42020/93.12
2024/102.522023/103.262022/101.232021/104.52020/103.23
N/AN/A2023/113.552022/111.252021/114.252020/113.4
N/AN/A2023/123.882022/121.262021/123.442020/123.47
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.05%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.6-33.33-13.04
24Q2 (19)0.9-34.3180.0
24Q1 (18)1.37-18.45389.29
23Q4 (17)1.68143.48950.0
23Q3 (16)0.6938.0762.5
23Q2 (15)0.578.57-15.25
23Q1 (14)0.2875.0-26.32
22Q4 (13)0.16100.0-70.91
22Q3 (12)0.08-86.44-91.75
22Q2 (11)0.5955.26-31.4
22Q1 (10)0.38-30.91-65.77
21Q4 (9)0.55-43.3-15.38
21Q3 (8)0.9712.79708.33
21Q2 (7)0.86-22.52561.54
21Q1 (6)1.1170.771133.33
20Q4 (5)0.65441.671525.0
20Q3 (4)0.12-7.690.0
20Q2 (3)0.1344.440.0
20Q1 (2)0.09125.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.040.00.0

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