玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.2649.85-3.832.8-18.30.79N/A-
2024/90.18-49.86-48.492.54-19.561.072.28-
2024/80.35-35.473.592.36-16.041.062.3-
2024/70.54229.7433.212.01-18.731.082.26-
2024/60.17-55.6-64.51.47-29.010.843.04高單價機台延後出貨所致
2024/50.3722.812.991.3-18.70.843.03-
2024/40.381.157.690.93-26.890.743.45-
2024/30.17-38.11-61.640.63-36.710.634.03上期集中出貨/本期訂單延後交貨所致
2024/20.2742.11-10.830.46-17.140.823.09-
2024/10.19-47.03-24.710.19-24.711.082.35-
2023/120.36-32.28-14.84.322.741.162.0-
2023/110.5393.1144.583.964.71.152.03-
2023/100.27-19.74-20.363.430.420.962.44-
2023/90.340.85-25.053.162.751.092.22-
2023/80.34-17.035.532.817.61.212.0-
2023/70.41-12.1530.52.477.91.22.01-
2023/60.4741.3419.152.074.321.082.36-
2023/50.3317.0420.281.60.681.052.43-
2023/40.28-35.48-1.481.27-3.381.022.49-
2023/30.4443.8469.780.99-3.90.992.68上期疫情影響,基期低/本月集中出貨
2023/20.320.0-27.970.56-28.480.982.72-
2023/10.25-40.06-29.080.25-29.081.042.56-
2022/120.4214.9261.944.222.21.132.3上期疫情影響,基期低/本期集中出貨
2022/110.376.36-22.993.7818.951.172.23-
2022/100.34-24.4637.283.4126.331.122.32-
2022/90.4642.0140.583.0725.211.092.44-
2022/80.322.667.212.6122.871.022.6上期疫情影響,基期低
2022/70.31-19.79-19.632.2918.470.982.72-
2022/60.3942.688.881.9828.070.952.79-
2022/50.27-4.14-7.361.5933.850.823.25-
2022/40.2911.191.591.3247.490.962.75-
2022/30.26-38.979.791.0368.561.032.58去年景氣影響,基期低而本年集中交貨所致
2022/20.4218.1482.230.78105.371.042.58上期景氣影響,基期低且本期集中交貨所致
2022/10.3636.87141.60.36141.61.092.45上期受疫情影響景氣基期低所致
2021/120.26-45.34-26.223.447.20.992.92-
2021/110.4889.61134.253.1811.331.052.74單價高之機台集中本月出貨
2021/100.25-22.65-30.362.71.910.773.75-
2021/90.3268.9134.362.456.990.913.22-
2021/80.19-50.68-55.972.133.770.943.11上期集中交貨所致
2021/70.398.67146.121.9419.911.042.8上期疫情影響延後交機所致
2021/60.3621.3829.611.556.190.933.23景氣回溫出口增加
2021/50.35.12114.531.190.70.813.73上期受疫情影響延後交貨
2021/40.2820.17-6.140.89-14.320.754.05-
2021/30.231.28-11.110.61-17.620.615.07-
2021/20.2356.63-30.890.38-21.180.734.24-
2021/10.15-58.21.060.151.060.74.41-
2020/120.3573.51522.553.21-1.610.923.41上期銷貨退回/本期集中出貨所致
2020/110.2-43.63-36.172.86-10.870.83.88-
2020/100.3649.251.022.65-8.091.043.01-
2020/90.24-44.65-9.822.29-9.370.843.96-
2020/80.44175.68169.162.05-9.320.873.8主係機台集中交貨所致
2020/70.16-42.77-29.541.61-23.10.575.78-
2020/60.28100.914.261.46-22.330.714.71-
2020/50.14-54.01-57.911.18-26.710.74.8受新冠肺炎疫情影響,客戶下單保守且延後交貨
2020/40.313.8118.181.04-18.750.93.75-
2020/30.26-21.25-12.050.74-27.840.744.58-
2020/20.33129.08-15.850.48-34.310.546.34-
2020/10.15157.48-56.280.15-56.280.526.53本期工作天數較少且客戶延後至2月交機所致
2019/120.06-82.2-61.23.26-23.450.0N/A銷貨退回所致
2019/110.32-10.79-0.83.2-22.110.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.192023/10.252022/10.362021/10.152020/10.15
2024/20.272023/20.32022/20.422021/20.232020/20.33
2024/30.172023/30.442022/30.262021/30.232020/30.26
2024/40.32023/40.282022/40.292021/40.282020/40.3
2024/50.372023/50.332022/50.272021/50.32020/50.14
2024/60.172023/60.472022/60.392021/60.362020/60.28
2024/70.542023/70.412022/70.312021/70.392020/70.16
2024/80.352023/80.342022/80.322021/80.192020/80.44
2024/90.182023/90.342022/90.462021/90.322020/90.24
2024/100.262023/100.272022/100.342021/100.252020/100.36
N/AN/A2023/110.532022/110.372021/110.482020/110.2
N/AN/A2023/120.362022/120.422021/120.262020/120.35
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.63%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.24-51.02-33.33
24Q2 (19)0.49-5.77104.17
24Q1 (18)0.5248.57160.0
23Q4 (17)0.35-2.78105.88
23Q3 (16)0.3650.089.47
23Q2 (15)0.2420.0200.0
23Q1 (14)0.217.65122.22
22Q4 (13)0.17-10.53-15.0
22Q3 (12)0.19137.5-17.39
22Q2 (11)0.08-11.11-57.89
22Q1 (10)0.09-55.0-57.14
21Q4 (9)0.2-13.04185.71
21Q3 (8)0.2321.05-30.3
21Q2 (7)0.19-9.52-5.0
21Q1 (6)0.21200.0-32.26
20Q4 (5)0.07-78.79-78.79
20Q3 (4)0.3365.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.2-35.480.0
20Q1 (2)0.31-6.060.0
19Q4 (1)0.330.00.0

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