玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.04-8.6615.9210.6522.843.39N/A-
2024/91.14-6.0619.659.6123.643.570.43-
2024/81.21-0.78-0.58.4724.193.510.44-
2024/71.2213.3241.517.2629.573.090.5-
2024/61.0837.0142.816.0427.393.080.51-
2024/50.79-34.99-4.664.9624.472.90.54-
2024/41.2134.5143.714.1732.082.880.54-
2024/30.916.8310.962.9627.852.960.49-
2024/20.77-40.38-4.562.0636.952.760.53-
2024/11.2985.0384.911.2984.913.00.49連接器新產品量產及年前客戶提前交貨
2023/120.7-30.88-11.4410.38-10.822.610.5-
2023/111.0112.63-1.129.68-10.782.860.45-
2023/100.9-5.730.438.67-11.783.070.42-
2023/90.95-21.89-17.57.77-13.03.030.37-
2023/81.2241.1247.286.82-12.342.840.39-
2023/70.8614.35-5.475.6-19.432.440.45-
2023/60.76-8.53-19.94.74-21.542.420.4-
2023/50.83-2.01-28.23.99-21.842.480.39-
2023/40.843.86-33.043.16-19.992.460.39-
2023/30.810.47-22.722.32-13.892.320.43-
2023/20.8115.526.771.51-8.252.290.44-
2023/10.7-11.38-30.440.7-30.442.510.4-
2022/120.79-22.8413.0311.6418.452.70.43-
2022/111.0214.4121.4810.8518.863.070.37-
2022/100.89-22.5625.049.8318.592.870.4-
2022/91.1539.4539.248.9417.992.890.37-
2022/80.83-9.42-1.997.7815.372.680.4-
2022/70.91-3.1-4.786.9617.863.010.36-
2022/60.94-18.0-12.236.0422.263.350.33-
2022/51.15-8.6222.715.131.843.460.32-
2022/41.2619.8733.783.9534.762.940.37-
2022/31.0564.8323.792.6935.222.690.45-
2022/20.64-36.6268.361.6443.72.340.52客戶需求增加所致
2022/11.044.0131.51.031.52.540.48-
2021/120.7-17.07-5.219.8330.22.250.48-
2021/110.8417.7637.999.1334.032.380.45-
2021/100.71-13.7750.048.2933.642.390.45客戶需求增加所致
2021/90.83-1.8433.817.5732.282.630.33-
2021/80.84-12.054.136.7532.092.880.31客戶需求增加所致
2021/70.96-10.6937.725.929.452.970.3-
2021/61.0714.6550.154.9427.952.950.28客戶需求增加所致
2021/50.94-0.3820.673.8722.912.730.31-
2021/40.9410.929.082.9323.642.170.39-
2021/30.85124.1724.771.9931.971.990.44-
2021/20.38-50.559.461.1437.871.880.47109年因疫情關係營收較低所致
2021/10.763.829.210.7629.212.110.42-
2020/120.7420.7314.557.559.541.820.44-
2020/110.6128.04-0.026.819.031.710.47-
2020/100.48-23.1-21.156.210.011.640.49-
2020/90.6213.052.385.7313.751.860.4-
2020/80.55-21.37-0.745.1115.31.960.38-
2020/70.7-2.6314.084.5617.582.190.34-
2020/60.72-7.8540.023.8618.242.350.31-
2020/50.78-9.9439.573.1514.22.320.31-
2020/40.8626.8854.212.377.781.780.420Q1遞延出貨延至本月出貨
2020/30.68186.54.691.51-8.041.510.56-
2020/20.24-59.89-37.060.83-16.381.470.58-
2020/10.59-7.97-3.690.59-3.691.840.46-
2019/120.645.3613.876.89-6.70.0N/A-
2019/110.610.98-4.886.25-8.40.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.292023/10.72022/11.02021/10.762020/10.59
2024/20.772023/20.812022/20.642021/20.382020/20.24
2024/30.92023/30.812022/31.052021/30.852020/30.68
2024/41.212023/40.842022/41.262021/40.942020/40.86
2024/50.792023/50.832022/51.152021/50.942020/50.78
2024/61.082023/60.762022/60.942021/61.072020/60.72
2024/71.222023/70.862022/70.912021/70.962020/70.7
2024/81.212023/81.222022/80.832021/80.842020/80.55
2024/91.142023/90.952022/91.152021/90.832020/90.62
2024/101.042023/100.92022/100.892021/100.712020/100.48
N/AN/A2023/111.012022/111.022021/110.842020/110.61
N/AN/A2023/120.72022/120.792021/120.72020/120.74
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.56%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.22-8.3357.14
24Q2 (19)0.24100.0100.0
24Q1 (18)0.12-7.6950.0
23Q4 (17)0.13-7.1444.44
23Q3 (16)0.1416.67133.33
23Q2 (15)0.1250.0200.0
23Q1 (14)0.08-11.11100.0
22Q4 (13)0.0950.0125.0
22Q3 (12)0.0650.0100.0
22Q2 (11)0.040.033.33
22Q1 (10)0.040.033.33
21Q4 (9)0.0433.3333.33
21Q3 (8)0.030.00.0
21Q2 (7)0.030.00
21Q1 (6)0.030.0-40.0
20Q4 (5)0.030.050.0
20Q3 (4)0.0300.0

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