玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.34-26.826.4515.540.494.75N/A-
2024/91.8214.83-17.8614.21-0.035.040.49-
2024/81.59-2.48-7.7612.383.264.220.59-
2024/71.6361.8410.9410.85.113.940.63-
2024/61.01-22.89-19.679.174.143.430.77-
2024/51.3116.76-0.958.168.13.730.71-
2024/41.12-14.22-16.26.8510.013.410.78-
2024/31.332.16-17.795.7417.165.740.38-
2024/20.99-71.37-10.484.4333.916.610.33-
2024/13.4557.9156.073.4556.077.280.3本年度業績大幅成長主因:節慶挪移影響,使得今年度大量出貨落點在1月份,去年度則落在111年12月份。
2023/122.1832.45-31.8119.3-8.485.080.53-
2023/111.6531.37-13.3317.12-4.35.120.53-
2023/101.25-43.54-8.7315.47-3.235.20.52-
2023/92.2228.9457.4314.21-2.715.410.39本年度中秋節在九月底,月餅大量出貨落點會在九月份,而去年中秋節是九月初,出貨落點會在八月份;故九月份收入成長
2023/81.7217.29-22.2111.99-9.144.440.47-
2023/71.4717.17-13.7810.27-6.514.040.52-
2023/61.25-4.929.258.8-5.173.910.62-
2023/51.32-1.21-5.07.55-7.214.240.57-
2023/41.33-15.852.616.23-7.664.020.6-
2023/31.5943.92-3.274.9-10.124.90.42-
2023/21.1-50.0913.63.31-13.076.510.31-
2023/12.21-31.0-22.182.21-22.187.310.28-
2022/123.268.3421.4321.0920.146.480.36-
2022/111.938.3328.6217.8919.914.690.5-
2022/101.37-2.614.815.9918.955.00.47-
2022/91.41-36.28-19.0714.6119.365.330.46-
2022/82.2130.01105.3613.225.745.070.48主因節慶挪移使中秋業績落點在110年9月及111年8月,造成兩期差異比例較大。
2022/71.748.4842.910.9916.634.240.58-
2022/61.15-17.3336.699.2812.823.840.67-
2022/51.396.7141.548.1410.114.330.59-
2022/41.3-20.6829.846.755.33.910.66-
2022/31.6469.0442.25.450.755.450.37-
2022/20.97-65.811.233.81-10.486.440.31-
2022/12.847.67-13.882.84-13.886.950.29-
2021/122.6478.313.9917.557.195.310.48-
2021/111.4823.483.114.926.074.420.57-
2021/101.2-31.355.9513.446.414.020.63-
2021/91.7461.68-9.6812.246.464.010.57-
2021/81.08-9.53-26.6310.59.723.110.73-
2021/71.1942.03-2.859.4216.323.010.76-
2021/60.84-14.43.958.2319.742.820.83-
2021/50.98-2.147.217.3921.843.130.74-
2021/41.0-13.12-2.146.4118.713.110.75-
2021/31.1520.34-19.35.4123.595.410.42-
2021/20.96-70.9211.354.2544.416.560.34-
2021/13.342.5458.053.358.057.040.32本年度業績大幅成長主因:節慶挪移影響,使得今年度大量出貨落點在1月份,去年度則落在108年12月份。
2020/122.3161.27-15.3916.37-12.164.870.61-
2020/111.4326.88-13.2514.06-11.64.490.67-
2020/101.13-41.48-24.4312.63-11.414.530.66-
2020/91.9331.3338.2111.5-9.894.630.49-
2020/81.4719.79-13.729.57-15.83.50.64-
2020/71.2352.0-15.688.1-16.172.70.84-
2020/60.8121.2-17.036.87-16.252.50.92-
2020/50.67-34.93-33.396.06-16.153.120.73-
2020/41.02-28.35-16.935.4-13.383.310.69-
2020/31.4366.0551.844.37-12.514.370.45本月增減百分比達51.84%,主係疫情影響造成食物屯積效應,及新品上市促銷活動提升業績。
2020/20.86-58.739.022.95-27.435.680.35-
2020/12.08-23.69-36.232.08-36.236.470.3-
2019/122.7365.356.7418.64-5.50.0N/A-
2019/111.6510.527.6915.91-7.330.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.452023/12.212022/12.842021/13.32020/12.08
2024/20.992023/21.12022/20.972021/20.962020/20.86
2024/31.32023/31.592022/31.642021/31.152020/31.43
2024/41.122023/41.332022/41.32021/41.02020/41.02
2024/51.312023/51.322022/51.392021/50.982020/50.67
2024/61.012023/61.252022/61.152021/60.842020/60.81
2024/71.632023/71.472022/71.72021/71.192020/71.23
2024/81.592023/81.722022/82.212021/81.082020/81.47
2024/91.822023/92.222022/91.412021/91.742020/91.93
2024/101.342023/101.252022/101.372021/101.22020/101.13
N/AN/A2023/111.652022/111.92021/111.482020/111.43
N/AN/A2023/122.182022/123.22021/122.642020/122.31
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.12%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.2722.73107.69
24Q2 (19)0.220.010.0
24Q1 (18)0.22-40.5410.0
23Q4 (17)0.37184.6294.74
23Q3 (16)0.13-35.0-48.0
23Q2 (15)0.20.0-28.57
23Q1 (14)0.25.26-13.04
22Q4 (13)0.19-24.0-48.65
22Q3 (12)0.25-10.7156.25
22Q2 (11)0.2821.7440.0
22Q1 (10)0.23-37.8443.75
21Q4 (9)0.37131.2532.14
21Q3 (8)0.16-20.06.67
21Q2 (7)0.225.0-13.04
21Q1 (6)0.16-42.86-36.0
20Q4 (5)0.2886.670.0
20Q3 (4)0.15-34.780.0
20Q2 (3)0.23-8.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.25-10.710.0
19Q4 (1)0.280.00.0

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