玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.49-18.64-7.415.431.961.7N/A-
2024/100.6-1.63-0.924.942.991.84N/A-
2024/90.61-2.941.284.343.561.810.85-
2024/80.6311.1227.593.733.941.580.97-
2024/70.5747.96-11.43.10.171.331.15-
2024/60.381.2-30.352.533.191.221.37-
2024/50.38-17.41-23.52.1512.881.361.23-
2024/40.46-11.6342.181.7725.651.331.25-
2024/30.5245.3619.01.3120.751.311.24-
2024/20.36-18.5312.710.7921.921.331.22-
2024/10.44-18.7830.610.4430.611.511.08-
2023/120.542.0569.435.86-18.881.670.94111年客戶錯估市場需求延付貨款,於112/3要求客戶將庫存退回, 依IFRS15會計師出具調整分錄, 沖減營收,並認列退款負債
2023/110.53-12.9312.545.33-22.951.740.9-
2023/100.610.5522.714.8-25.531.70.92-
2023/90.622.25-14.734.19-29.541.741.03-
2023/80.49-22.83-39.563.59-31.541.681.06-
2023/70.6416.31-6.843.09-30.061.681.06-
2023/60.5511.16-21.842.45-34.331.371.43-
2023/50.4953.49-3.331.9-37.221.251.56-
2023/40.32-26.03-51.231.41-44.11.071.82客戶庫存尚待去化
2023/30.4437.68-44.61.09-41.571.091.8-
2023/20.32-5.59-21.370.65-39.361.161.69-
2023/10.34-33.99-50.130.34-50.131.311.491月適逢過年,工作天數減少
2022/120.518.2-16.717.425.261.471.17-
2022/110.47-5.07-30.46.917.341.671.03-
2022/100.49-30.13-32.126.4411.762.020.85-
2022/90.71-13.3330.065.9518.12.210.76-
2022/80.8218.9312.225.2416.652.210.77-
2022/70.69-2.411.274.4217.511.90.89-
2022/60.737.496.553.7418.741.880.94-
2022/50.51-22.56-12.53.0321.971.960.9-
2022/40.66-15.9726.822.5232.571.850.96-
2022/30.7995.474.21.8634.741.860.952月年假及缺櫃遞延出貨
2022/20.4-40.1222.311.0715.581.681.05-
2022/10.6710.2311.890.6711.891.960.9-
2021/120.61-9.58-3.027.05-0.332.010.82-
2021/110.67-7.42-10.756.44-0.071.950.85-
2021/100.7333.880.535.761.342.00.83-
2021/90.54-25.22-34.335.041.461.891.02-
2021/80.7317.92-8.634.498.632.00.96-
2021/70.62-6.5425.173.7612.751.861.03-
2021/60.6612.89119.833.1510.61.771.12去年新冠肺炎爆發影響客戶需求
2021/50.5812.2369.32.49-2.281.561.26客戶需求受新冠肺炎影響
2021/40.5215.4217.411.9-13.521.31.51-
2021/30.4537.18-40.611.38-21.341.381.35-
2021/20.33-45.21-40.360.93-6.631.561.19-
2021/10.6-4.4635.270.635.271.990.94-
2020/120.63-16.7820.317.07-10.752.110.73-
2020/110.764.2942.426.44-12.942.310.67-
2020/100.72-12.5516.095.69-17.222.350.66-
2020/90.834.0424.914.96-20.552.120.81-
2020/80.861.556.444.13-25.951.591.08-
2020/70.4964.12-25.233.34-30.961.141.51-
2020/60.3-13.05-54.922.85-31.871.091.82受新冠肺炎影響, 客戶訂單減少
2020/50.35-22.16-52.162.55-27.491.551.28受新冠肺炎影響, 客戶訂單減少
2020/40.44-41.62-30.322.2-21.11.761.13-
2020/30.7637.77-14.341.76-18.371.761.03-
2020/20.5524.253.081.0-21.21.521.19-
2020/10.44-15.02-39.050.44-39.050.0N/A過年期間:109/1 及 108/2
2019/120.52-1.5-17.857.921.440.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.442023/10.342022/10.672021/10.62020/10.44
2024/20.362023/20.322022/20.42021/20.332020/20.55
2024/30.522023/30.442022/30.792021/30.452020/30.76
2024/40.462023/40.322022/40.662021/40.522020/40.44
2024/50.382023/50.492022/50.512021/50.582020/50.35
2024/60.382023/60.552022/60.72021/60.662020/60.3
2024/70.572023/70.642022/70.692021/70.622020/70.49
2024/80.632023/80.492022/80.822021/80.732020/80.8
2024/90.612023/90.62022/90.712021/90.542020/90.83
2024/100.62023/100.612022/100.492021/100.732020/100.72
2024/110.492023/110.532022/110.472021/110.672020/110.76
N/AN/A2023/120.542022/120.512021/120.612020/120.63
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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