玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/113.2-0.58101.5422.5297.969.18N/A主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/103.2216.42103.3519.3297.388.24N/A主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/92.7622.1128.8516.196.237.211.88主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/82.263.54114.7213.3490.66.192.2主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/72.1925.85167.5911.0886.325.562.44主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/61.746.08108.518.8973.384.92.08主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/51.647.1885.087.1566.564.712.17主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/41.53-0.8180.995.5261.764.02.55主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/31.5464.93103.813.9955.433.992.02主係因客戶需求量增加所致
2024/20.93-38.3235.692.4535.234.02.02-
2024/11.51-2.1434.951.5134.954.651.74-
2023/121.55-2.5216.612.92-45.474.721.78-
2023/111.590.3118.311.38-49.164.381.92-
2023/101.5831.0112.749.79-53.463.842.19大環境變化所致
2023/91.2114.57-8.918.21-58.193.082.91大環境變化所致
2023/81.0529.03-35.377.0-61.762.73.32大環境變化所致
2023/70.82-1.93-63.735.94-64.342.533.54大環境變化所致
2023/60.83-5.83-64.275.13-64.442.563.34大環境變化所致
2023/50.884.81-60.014.29-64.472.483.44大環境變化所致
2023/40.8411.68-64.33.41-65.472.293.74大環境變化所致
2023/30.769.8-72.562.57-65.842.573.52大環境變化所致
2023/20.69-38.65-67.651.81-61.953.142.88大環境變化所致
2023/11.12-15.45-57.341.12-57.343.792.38大環境變化所致
2022/121.33-1.1-57.7623.7-46.654.072.49大環境變化所致
2022/111.34-4.4-59.1122.38-45.814.072.49大環境變化所致
2022/101.45.85-55.8321.03-44.664.362.32大環境變化所致
2022/91.33-18.71-69.0519.63-43.645.212.34大環境變化所致。
2022/81.63-27.59-57.5418.3-40.086.221.96大環境變化所致。
2022/72.25-3.37-43.9116.67-37.576.81.8-
2022/62.335.39-47.6214.42-36.446.912.19-
2022/52.21-6.44-49.4812.09-33.727.332.07-
2022/42.36-14.14-44.769.88-28.747.252.09-
2022/32.7529.43-24.477.51-21.587.512.08-
2022/22.13-19.1-18.654.76-19.87.91.98-
2022/12.63-16.28-20.712.63-20.719.051.73-
2021/123.14-4.24-2.8244.4483.049.61.48全年市場設備需求增加所致
2021/113.283.2517.3141.2996.2310.741.32市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/103.18-25.8234.538.01108.3311.31.26市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/94.2811.5178.7534.84119.3112.141.26市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/83.84-4.3460.7330.55126.5212.311.25市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/74.02-9.7685.9526.71140.6912.851.19市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/64.451.6591.322.69153.9313.111.18市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/54.382.27174.7818.24175.9812.311.26市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/44.2817.39139.8413.86176.3610.541.47市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/33.6539.41176.469.58196.549.581.7市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/22.62-21.15242.775.93210.49.171.77市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/13.322.61188.893.32188.899.351.74市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/123.2315.5936.3924.2824.968.391.72市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/112.818.3762.1521.0423.377.561.91市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/102.36-1.4257.6218.2519.07.152.02市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/92.40.2765.1215.8814.826.951.64市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/82.3910.6662.5913.498.926.881.66市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/72.16-7.1658.6611.11.696.081.88市場設備需求逐漸復甦所致
2020/62.3346.0134.888.94-6.425.711.81-
2020/51.59-10.72-0.466.61-15.534.72.2-
2020/41.7935.321.635.02-19.43.872.68-
2020/31.3272.85-10.343.23-27.683.232.99-
2020/20.76-33.54-28.861.91-36.194.282.25-
2020/11.15-51.55-40.291.15-40.290.0N/A-
2019/122.3737.42-1.5419.43-51.270.0N/A景氣較去年放緩所致。
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.512023/11.122022/12.632021/13.322020/11.15
2024/20.932023/20.692022/22.132021/22.622020/20.76
2024/31.542023/30.762022/32.752021/33.652020/31.32
2024/41.532023/40.842022/42.362021/44.282020/41.79
2024/51.642023/50.882022/52.212021/54.382020/51.59
2024/61.742023/60.832022/62.332021/64.452020/62.33
2024/72.192023/70.822022/72.252021/74.022020/72.16
2024/82.262023/81.052022/81.632021/83.842020/82.39
2024/92.762023/91.212022/91.332021/94.282020/92.4
2024/103.222023/101.582022/101.42021/103.182020/102.36
2024/113.22023/111.592022/111.342021/113.282020/112.8
N/AN/A2023/121.552022/121.332021/123.142020/123.23
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 29.57%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.6187.7775.17
24Q2 (19)1.3957.9524.11
24Q1 (18)0.88-28.46-36.69
23Q4 (17)1.23-17.45-42.25
23Q3 (16)1.4933.04-45.82
23Q2 (15)1.12-19.42-63.87
23Q1 (14)1.39-34.74-58.51
22Q4 (13)2.13-22.55-25.26
22Q3 (12)2.75-11.29-33.57
22Q2 (11)3.1-7.46-14.13
22Q1 (10)3.3517.54-33.79
21Q4 (9)2.85-31.16-26.17
21Q3 (8)4.1414.6884.82
21Q2 (7)3.61-28.66121.47
21Q1 (6)5.0631.09318.18
20Q4 (5)3.8672.32257.41
20Q3 (4)2.2437.420.0
20Q2 (3)1.6334.710.0
20Q1 (2)1.2112.040.0
19Q4 (1)1.080.00.0

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