玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.21-16.03-1.124.9822.948.22N/A-
2024/92.64-21.748.022.7725.928.730.64-
2024/83.3723.5539.7320.1328.718.410.67-
2024/72.7317.6852.2916.7626.717.680.73112年7月客戶去化庫存減少進貨
2024/62.32-12.3519.7614.0422.717.580.68-
2024/52.640.6318.8711.7223.317.540.69-
2024/42.6315.5953.669.0824.666.730.77112年四月客戶去化庫存減少進貨
2024/32.2724.2410.146.4515.776.450.73-
2024/21.83-22.3-4.254.1819.086.230.75-
2024/12.3514.9246.92.3546.96.620.71-
2023/122.05-7.8813.5424.59-12.446.510.68-
2023/112.22-0.6410.3822.54-14.226.90.64-
2023/102.24-8.320.2420.32-16.267.090.63-
2023/92.441.2415.6818.08-19.36.640.66-
2023/82.4134.65-6.5315.64-22.936.130.72-
2023/71.79-7.45-28.8713.23-25.325.950.74-
2023/61.93-13.0-26.9911.44-24.735.870.79-
2023/52.2230.08-19.839.51-24.265.990.77-
2023/41.71-17.14-23.477.28-25.515.680.81-
2023/32.068.0-23.555.57-26.125.570.96-
2023/21.9119.211.913.51-27.555.321.0-
2023/11.6-11.17-46.121.6-46.125.420.99-
2022/121.8-10.45-28.5528.08-1.375.681.03-
2022/112.018.22-18.4126.281.265.980.98-
2022/101.86-11.77-33.0624.273.336.550.89-
2022/92.11-18.19-22.2322.48.217.20.96-
2022/82.582.463.4320.312.817.740.9-
2022/72.52-5.013.9617.7214.327.940.88-
2022/62.65-4.473.7815.214.377.660.9-
2022/52.7724.1623.9912.5516.897.70.89-
2022/42.23-17.225.689.7815.036.811.01-
2022/32.743.983.837.5518.127.550.86-
2022/21.87-36.97-1.24.8527.927.370.88-
2022/12.9717.7857.12.9757.17.970.81船運塞港缺櫃問題於1月份獲得部份緩解
2021/122.522.2627.9728.4820.247.770.79-
2021/112.47-11.229.7425.9519.547.960.77-
2021/102.782.4940.3923.4818.567.990.77-
2021/92.718.818.8120.716.137.410.79-
2021/82.4912.927.1417.9915.747.250.8-
2021/72.21-13.48-3.0615.514.097.00.83-
2021/62.5514.1232.3513.2917.556.90.76-
2021/52.245.8213.9610.7414.516.950.75-
2021/42.11-18.6627.238.514.666.610.79-
2021/32.636.992.956.3911.036.390.76-
2021/21.90.2224.323.7917.345.760.85-
2021/11.89-4.0511.091.8911.095.770.85-
2020/121.973.67-6.5323.68-5.355.860.82-
2020/111.9-3.91-2.9421.71-5.246.170.78-
2020/101.98-13.25-14.919.81-5.466.220.77-
2020/92.2816.42-1.1417.83-4.286.520.68-
2020/81.96-13.92-7.8115.54-4.726.170.72-
2020/72.2818.138.8613.58-4.266.170.72-
2020/61.93-1.74-10.9411.3-6.535.550.88-
2020/51.9618.15-1.829.38-5.576.150.8-
2020/41.66-34.18-17.827.41-6.515.710.86-
2020/32.5265.428.035.75-2.645.750.75-
2020/21.53-10.4420.633.23-9.635.340.81-
2020/11.7-19.28-26.211.7-26.215.770.75-
2019/122.117.658.3725.020.560.0N/A-
2019/111.96-15.751.1622.91-0.10.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.352023/11.62022/12.972021/11.892020/11.7
2024/21.832023/21.912022/21.872021/21.92020/21.53
2024/32.272023/32.062022/32.72021/32.62020/32.52
2024/42.632023/41.712022/42.232021/42.112020/41.66
2024/52.642023/52.222022/52.772021/52.242020/51.96
2024/62.322023/61.932022/62.652021/62.552020/61.93
2024/72.732023/71.792022/72.522021/72.212020/72.28
2024/83.372023/82.412022/82.582021/82.492020/81.96
2024/92.642023/92.442022/92.112021/92.712020/92.28
2024/102.212023/102.242022/101.862021/102.782020/101.98
N/AN/A2023/112.222022/112.012021/112.472020/111.9
N/AN/A2023/122.052022/121.82021/122.522020/121.97
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.55%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.24-42.869.09
24Q2 (19)0.42133.33600.0
24Q1 (18)0.180.0100.0
23Q4 (17)0.18-18.18500.0
23Q3 (16)0.22266.67100.0
23Q2 (15)0.06-33.3320.0
23Q1 (14)0.09200.0-18.18
22Q4 (13)0.03-72.73-70.0
22Q3 (12)0.11120.022.22
22Q2 (11)0.05-54.55-54.55
22Q1 (10)0.1110.0120.0
21Q4 (9)0.111.11-16.67
21Q3 (8)0.09-18.1850.0
21Q2 (7)0.11120.0-15.38
21Q1 (6)0.05-58.3325.0
20Q4 (5)0.12100.071.43
20Q3 (4)0.06-53.850.0
20Q2 (3)0.13225.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.04-42.860.0
19Q4 (1)0.070.00.0

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