玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.952.67-31.238.11-19.782.64N/A-
2024/90.9323.41-33.167.15-17.972.350.65-
2024/80.7512.24-10.696.22-15.082.20.69-
2024/70.67-14.01-29.255.47-15.652.540.6-
2024/60.78-28.53-25.664.8-13.332.740.26-
2024/51.0926.07-8.454.02-10.452.890.25-
2024/40.87-6.770.52.93-11.172.270.31-
2024/30.9395.2-6.822.06-15.32.060.3-
2024/20.48-27.82-42.631.13-21.172.560.24-
2024/10.66-53.817.980.667.983.470.18-
2023/121.433.2846.6112.915.954.20.2-
2023/111.38-0.3927.5211.492.424.160.2-
2023/101.39-0.2162.310.11-0.253.620.23112年10月營業收入淨額較去年同期成長62.31%,係因客戶訂單增加所致。
2023/91.3964.91-2.038.72-6.013.180.96-
2023/80.84-11.08-9.867.33-6.732.841.07-
2023/70.95-9.65-27.656.49-6.313.190.96-
2023/61.05-11.98-16.05.54-1.333.10.84-
2023/51.1938.4126.144.492.863.050.86-
2023/40.86-13.5759.013.3-3.572.690.98112年4月較去年同期成長59.02%,係因111年4月上海封城,生產完成產品無法出貨,去年同期營收基期較低所致。
2023/31.020.18-9.722.44-15.352.440.61-
2023/20.8335.8611.611.44-18.852.410.61-
2023/10.61-37.29-40.80.61-40.82.670.55-
2022/120.97-10.16-41.012.19-10.312.910.65-
2022/111.0826.76-3.5311.22-6.073.360.56-
2022/100.85-39.77-31.8210.13-6.333.210.59-
2022/91.4251.7451.499.28-2.993.660.7係因111年8月(上月)出貨減少,遞延至9月出貨所致。
2022/80.94-28.63-17.417.86-8.93.490.73-
2022/71.314.89-4.366.92-7.623.50.73-
2022/61.2532.18-9.45.61-8.352.741.13-
2022/50.9474.4719.834.36-8.042.591.19-
2022/40.54-50.93-48.253.42-13.62.391.29-
2022/31.148.6-3.822.88-1.142.881.26-
2022/20.74-27.945.721.770.63.421.06-
2022/11.03-37.5-2.791.03-2.793.80.95-
2021/121.6546.9185.9513.5928.334.030.74去年因疫情嚴峻,東年亞國家封城,原料無法如期到貨,影響生產及銷售,致去年營收偏低
2021/111.12-10.4184.0711.9419.253.310.89去年因疫情嚴峻,東年亞國家封城,原料無法如期到貨,影響生產及銷售,致去年營收偏低
2021/101.2533.8465.2810.8215.043.320.89去年因疫情嚴峻,東年亞國家封城,原料無法如期到貨,影響生產及銷售,致去年營收偏低
2021/90.94-17.281.589.5610.633.440.81-
2021/81.13-17.3566.368.6311.723.880.72110年8月較去年同期成長66.36%,主係因PND銷量增加,收入增加34,272千元所致。(109年因Covid-19疫情影響停工)
2021/71.37-0.6312.237.56.433.540.79-
2021/61.3874.8434.426.135.223.210.51-
2021/50.79-24.66-37.754.75-1.022.980.55-
2021/41.05-8.816.913.9612.162.90.57-
2021/31.1563.3682.042.9114.172.910.42本月較去年同期成長82.04%,係因新產品出貨及原有客戶產品小改款後的出貨所致。
2021/20.7-33.74-11.861.76-8.122.340.53-
2021/11.0683.83-5.461.06-5.462.250.55-
2020/120.58-5.43-35.9410.59-24.671.950.61-
2020/110.61-19.55-36.1510.01-23.92.290.52-
2020/100.76-17.7310.479.4-22.942.360.5-
2020/90.9235.465.128.64-24.932.820.21-
2020/80.68-44.24-44.237.72-27.412.930.2-
2020/71.2219.01-23.087.04-25.233.510.17-
2020/61.03-19.03-38.625.82-25.663.270.24-
2020/51.2729.4-21.14.8-22.152.880.27-
2020/40.9855.25-32.13.53-22.522.410.32-
2020/30.63-20.9-53.462.55-18.082.550.32109年3月較去年同期減少53.46%,係因新冠肺炎以及客供料不足所致
2020/20.8-28.93-4.411.929.182.820.29-
2020/11.1224.5521.461.1221.462.980.27-
2019/120.9-5.73-19.9314.0620.50.0N/A-
2019/110.9639.1837.5613.1624.820.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.662023/10.612022/11.032021/11.062020/11.12
2024/20.482023/20.832022/20.742021/20.72020/20.8
2024/30.932023/31.02022/31.12021/31.152020/30.63
2024/40.872023/40.862022/40.542021/41.052020/40.98
2024/51.092023/51.192022/50.942021/50.792020/51.27
2024/60.782023/61.052022/61.252021/61.382020/61.03
2024/70.672023/70.952022/71.312021/71.372020/71.22
2024/80.752023/80.842022/80.942021/81.132020/80.68
2024/90.932023/91.392022/91.422021/90.942020/90.92
2024/100.952023/101.392022/100.852021/101.252020/100.76
N/AN/A2023/111.382022/111.082021/111.122020/110.61
N/AN/A2023/121.432022/120.972021/121.652020/120.58
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.73%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.29-6.453.57
24Q2 (19)0.310.010.71
24Q1 (18)0.316.9-8.82
23Q4 (17)0.293.57-14.71
23Q3 (16)0.280.0-17.65
23Q2 (15)0.28-17.6533.33
23Q1 (14)0.340.036.0
22Q4 (13)0.340.025.93
22Q3 (12)0.3461.936.0
22Q2 (11)0.21-16.0-16.0
22Q1 (10)0.25-7.41-7.41
21Q4 (9)0.278.03.85
21Q3 (8)0.250.031.58
21Q2 (7)0.25-7.4113.64
21Q1 (6)0.273.850.0
20Q4 (5)0.2636.84-23.53
20Q3 (4)0.19-13.640.0
20Q2 (3)0.22-18.520.0
20Q1 (2)0.27-20.590.0
19Q4 (1)0.340.00.0

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