玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.4363.1147.833.3130.581.09N/A-
2024/90.27-31.1226.032.8728.311.011.99-
2024/80.398.6960.882.6128.551.041.94客戶出貨較去年同期穩定成長所致
2024/70.3620.6857.672.2224.21.02.02新產品出貨穩定
2024/60.29-14.643.721.8619.370.961.92-
2024/50.357.0155.511.5722.850.922.01新產品出貨穩定
2024/40.3228.2563.01.2215.970.912.03舊產品出貨穩定成長加上新產品開始出貨挹注營收所致
2024/30.25-25.68-36.060.95.110.92.02-
2024/20.349.05.080.6540.081.271.43-
2024/10.31-49.91119.940.31119.941.391.31去年同期基期低,加上於去年開始量產之新產品持續穩定出貨所致
2023/120.6235.4476.483.6110.111.371.35新產品開始量產銷售挹注所致
2023/110.4655.79109.922.992.150.961.92部分新產品開始量產銷售挹注所致
2023/100.2939.0611.182.53-6.520.752.48-
2023/90.21-12.07-19.992.24-8.440.682.92-
2023/80.246.529.672.03-7.040.752.64-
2023/70.23-20.616.811.79-8.90.732.71-
2023/60.2827.9734.631.56-10.80.72.24-
2023/50.2212.16-13.021.28-17.030.811.94-
2023/40.2-49.69-52.511.05-17.830.911.73主係因新產品開發時程延遲
2023/30.3922.138.160.86-1.150.861.97-
2023/20.32128.1749.990.46-7.890.812.07-
2023/10.14-59.81-51.010.14-51.010.712.38主係因今年一月適逢農曆年假期工作天數少
2022/120.3561.11-30.093.28-24.980.832.11-
2022/110.22-17.48-47.842.93-24.310.752.36-
2022/100.260.06-5.672.71-21.460.752.35-
2022/90.2620.53-12.712.44-22.860.692.69-
2022/80.223.74-29.752.18-23.930.642.92-
2022/70.210.06-43.71.96-23.220.682.76-
2022/60.21-17.32-54.381.75-19.690.882.04客戶需求減少
2022/50.26-38.75-29.031.54-10.341.041.74-
2022/40.4214.586.681.28-5.391.01.81-
2022/30.3669.37-11.450.87-10.270.872.16-
2022/20.21-25.49-14.150.5-9.41.011.86-
2022/10.29-42.63-5.510.29-5.511.211.55-
2021/120.520.185.244.375.051.21.28-
2021/110.4249.23-17.993.875.031.01.54-
2021/100.28-7.39-42.673.458.730.891.72-
2021/90.3-3.0-12.053.1718.090.991.65-
2021/80.31-16.8524.382.8722.521.151.42-
2021/70.38-18.9132.922.5522.31.21.36-
2021/60.4628.6110.672.1820.641.211.19-
2021/50.36-7.9323.261.7223.641.161.24-
2021/40.39-4.8918.511.3623.741.051.37-
2021/30.4164.2247.820.9725.990.971.52-
2021/20.25-17.9919.330.5613.581.031.42-
2021/10.31-36.19.260.319.261.291.14-
2020/120.48-6.35-4.534.16-43.011.480.99-
2020/110.514.3226.573.68-45.841.341.09-
2020/100.4942.07-13.333.17-50.41.081.35新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/90.3437.18-38.712.68-53.980.882.03新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/80.25-11.14-65.022.34-55.610.951.87新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/70.28-32.49-56.572.09-54.130.991.79新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/60.4243.24-33.241.81-53.721.041.43新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/50.29-11.48-62.331.39-57.640.91.66新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/40.3318.61-58.321.1-56.180.821.82新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/30.2832.57-61.950.77-55.20.772.19新產品出貨時程不如預期
2020/20.21-24.91-52.360.49-50.170.991.7大客戶產品改版未能如期銜接
2020/10.28-44.17-48.380.28-48.381.181.42-
2019/120.524.16-20.257.317.990.0N/A-
2019/110.4-28.57-30.726.822.30.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.312023/10.142022/10.292021/10.312020/10.28
2024/20.342023/20.322022/20.212021/20.252020/20.21
2024/30.252023/30.392022/30.362021/30.412020/30.28
2024/40.322023/40.22022/40.422021/40.392020/40.33
2024/50.352023/50.222022/50.262021/50.362020/50.29
2024/60.292023/60.282022/60.212021/60.462020/60.42
2024/70.362023/70.232022/70.212021/70.382020/70.28
2024/80.392023/80.242022/80.222021/80.312020/80.25
2024/90.272023/90.212022/90.262021/90.32020/90.34
2024/100.432023/100.292022/100.262021/100.282020/100.49
N/AN/A2023/110.462022/110.222021/110.422020/110.51
N/AN/A2023/120.622022/120.352021/120.52020/120.48
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 6.91%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.3811.76-15.56
24Q2 (19)0.34-8.11-15.0
24Q1 (18)0.37-17.78-5.13
23Q4 (17)0.450.0-4.26
23Q3 (16)0.4512.5-8.16
23Q2 (15)0.42.56-24.53
23Q1 (14)0.39-17.02-30.36
22Q4 (13)0.47-4.08-28.79
22Q3 (12)0.49-7.55-34.67
22Q2 (11)0.53-5.36-10.17
22Q1 (10)0.56-15.15-3.45
21Q4 (9)0.66-12.032.0
21Q3 (8)0.7527.1256.25
21Q2 (7)0.591.72103.45
21Q1 (6)0.5816.0123.08
20Q4 (5)0.54.17138.1
20Q3 (4)0.4865.520.0
20Q2 (3)0.2911.540.0
20Q1 (2)0.2623.810.0
19Q4 (1)0.210.00.0

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