玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.21-27.79-36.953.48-35.331.18N/A-
2024/100.29-58.23-18.073.28-35.231.15N/A-
2024/90.69287.7297.452.99-36.51.341.15本月客製化汽車交車數較去年同月增加
2024/80.18-62.54-71.872.3-47.180.861.79客製化汽車交期受排程影響營收減少;LED產品歐洲出貨下滑營收減少
2024/70.47125.12-42.522.13-43.010.871.78-
2024/60.2114.86-46.611.65-43.090.652.21-
2024/50.18-30.24-60.881.44-42.540.841.73受客製化汽車產品交期排程影響營收減少
2024/40.26-33.21-44.31.26-38.351.021.41-
2024/30.395.85-41.881.0-36.511.01.44-
2024/20.3756.96-11.80.61-32.471.490.97-
2024/10.24-73.14-50.630.24-50.631.441.0受客製化產品交期排程影響,營收較去年同期減少
2023/120.88167.8331.476.27-21.81.561.03-
2023/110.33-6.17-40.955.39-26.661.031.56-
2023/100.350.65-27.195.06-25.481.331.21-
2023/90.35-44.77-37.284.71-25.431.80.76-
2023/80.63-23.461.774.36-24.291.840.74-
2023/70.82109.1-11.413.73-30.061.680.81-
2023/60.39-15.84-39.782.91-34.071.331.03-
2023/50.47-0.66-19.822.51-33.071.610.85-
2023/40.47-30.32-40.992.05-35.511.570.88-
2023/30.6860.65-15.741.57-33.731.570.99-
2023/20.42-12.15-32.380.9-42.891.571.0-
2023/10.48-28.46-49.750.48-49.751.70.92-
2022/120.6720.27-48.278.01-1.341.71.2-
2022/110.5615.7-7.357.347.531.591.29-
2022/100.48-13.29-38.926.798.961.651.24-
2022/90.55-10.38-46.516.3116.02.11.07-
2022/80.62-33.38-6.835.7630.692.21.02-
2022/70.9342.1329.625.3442.542.161.04-
2022/60.6512.062.264.4145.62.031.26-
2022/50.58-26.9-18.183.7557.182.171.18市場客戶需求增加所致
2022/40.80.3749.553.1789.212.211.16市場客戶需求增加所致
2022/30.7927.79105.372.37107.092.370.91市場客戶需求增加所致
2022/20.62-34.71148.741.57107.962.870.75市場客戶需求增加所致
2022/10.95-26.5187.860.9587.862.850.76市場客戶需求增加所致
2021/121.3115.87199.688.1275.172.680.61市場客戶需求增加所致
2021/110.6-23.7244.926.8362.382.420.68市場客戶需求增加所致
2021/100.79-23.71145.236.2364.282.480.66市場客戶需求增加所致
2021/91.0355.38135.25.4456.662.410.64市場客戶需求增加所致
2021/80.66-7.3177.724.4145.312.020.77市場客戶需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/70.7211.7968.463.7440.762.070.75市場客戶需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/60.64-10.0843.323.0335.571.890.67-
2021/50.7133.6289.612.3933.641.630.77市場客戶需求逐漸復甦所致
2021/40.5337.9419.31.6818.721.171.08-
2021/30.3954.66-5.991.1418.451.140.87-
2021/20.25-50.6917.180.7636.611.180.85-
2021/10.5120.4848.770.5148.771.340.75-
2020/120.421.57-2.964.63-19.261.160.77-
2020/110.4129.06-13.854.21-20.61.160.77-
2020/100.32-24.85-28.593.79-21.271.120.79-
2020/90.4314.315.063.46-20.781.230.64-
2020/80.37-12.13-28.833.03-23.431.240.63-
2020/70.43-3.57-11.92.66-22.611.240.63-
2020/60.4417.340.622.23-24.561.260.69-
2020/50.38-15.92-31.331.79-28.951.230.71-
2020/40.4510.15-5.081.41-28.291.070.82-
2020/30.4190.24-30.190.96-35.950.960.83-
2020/20.21-37.4-23.090.55-39.590.990.8-
2020/10.34-22.76-46.750.34-46.750.0N/A-
2019/120.44-8.24-13.865.74-5.930.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.242023/10.482022/10.952021/10.512020/10.34
2024/20.372023/20.422022/20.622021/20.252020/20.21
2024/30.392023/30.682022/30.792021/30.392020/30.41
2024/40.262023/40.472022/40.82021/40.532020/40.45
2024/50.182023/50.472022/50.582021/50.712020/50.38
2024/60.212023/60.392022/60.652021/60.642020/60.44
2024/70.472023/70.822022/70.932021/70.722020/70.43
2024/80.182023/80.632022/80.622021/80.662020/80.37
2024/90.692023/90.352022/90.552021/91.032020/90.43
2024/100.292023/100.352022/100.482021/100.792020/100.32
2024/110.212023/110.332022/110.562021/110.62020/110.41
N/AN/A2023/120.882022/120.672021/121.32020/120.42
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 32.31%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.1420.0-7.32
24Q2 (19)0.955.56-16.67
24Q1 (18)0.9-16.67-22.41
23Q4 (17)1.08-12.20.0
23Q3 (16)1.237.8933.7
23Q2 (15)1.14-1.7223.91
23Q1 (14)1.167.4114.85
22Q4 (13)1.0817.3950.0
22Q3 (12)0.920.043.75
22Q2 (11)0.92-8.912200.0
22Q1 (10)1.0140.284950.0
21Q4 (9)0.7212.52300.0
21Q3 (8)0.641500.06300.0
21Q2 (7)0.04100.00
21Q1 (6)0.02-33.330
20Q4 (5)0.03200.0-40.0
20Q3 (4)0.0100.0

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